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Post by iw5000 on Dec 12, 2011 13:21:47 GMT -5
Statistical Analysis: Shotguns "Visual in-game range analysis"Introduction.There are plenty of charts on this board, all breaking down the damage and range for MW3’s shotguns. Charts showing graphs, intersection points, inverted X-axis’s and all kinds of statistical numbers. These are all well and good, but the problems with charts, especially in relations to damage and range, is twofold. One, MW3 often nerfs guns, as we recently saw the title update to shotguns, especially the striker. Two, MW3’s gun charts, showing damage and range are often not really accurate. At the end of the day, nothing beats simply going into the game, and testing things yourself. That’s what we are going to do here. If you read our prior thread, you’ll have a head’s up here. "Analysis: Domination - "Speed vs Distance"denkirson.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=3478Part One – RecapIn the above thread, we explained how we take MW3’s gun chart tables and convert the distances to actual, real live measurements we can relate to. To give a quick refresher, if you don’t want to read the thread, MW3’s gun charts use an arbitrary number to measure distance. You’ll see ranges around 400 to 600 for shotguns, and 1,200 to 1,600 for Assault rifles. We refer to these numbers as ‘u’. How do you convert these to real life numbers? MW3 has a grenade launcher that can measure precise distances in ‘meters’. We all know how to relate to a meter. One meter is equal to 3.28 feet. So how do we correlate ‘u’ to ‘m’ (meters)? There are a couple of ways, but the easiest is to simply take three bullet burst rifles, plus the MK14, and then measure out, from MW3 gun charts, where crossover points are. For example. we know that the MK14 needs 3 bullets to kill over the range of approximately 1,950u, and only two bullets under 1,950. So we shoot ourselves over and over and find this cross-over spot on the map. We then simply swap weapons, to the XM25, and measure off that exact distance in meters. Bingo. Nice and simple. In that example, we find that the MK14’s 3 bullet kill crossover spot is approximately 47.5 meters. Here’s what it would look like in actual real gameplay. When it is all said and done, we can come up with a kind of, sort of correlation formula that links up MW3’s ‘u’ measurement with our already familiar with ‘meters’. We get the formula: 1 meter = 41.4uPart Two – Gun Chart Shotgun ranges in ‘u’MW3’s gun charts and tables do give the range and distances for shotguns, measured in the MW3 ‘u’ unit of measure. We’re going to recap these again, before we begin our actual tests. If you haven’t seen these charts before, here’s how they work. We’ll use the AA12 for example. The AA12 fires 8 pellets in one burst of the trigger. These 8 pellets do 15 damage each, for a total damage of 120 if all hit. At a range of 250 ‘u’, the pellet’s damage starts to drop off, dropping down to a damage of 5 at a distance of 450 ‘u’. Total damage here is 40. Obviously, it goes without saying 40d does not kill a person, whose health is 100. The AA12 will not ‘one-hit’ kill at a range of 450u. You would need multiple shots. 01. AA12 (full auto)…….(8 pellets x 15d=120) 250u…..(8 pellets x 05d) 450u 02. USAS12 (full auto)...(6 pellets x 25d=150) 400u…..(6 pellets x 05d) 700u 03. Striker (semi auto)…(6 pellets x 25d=150) 300u…..(6 pellets x 15d) 600u 04. KS12 (pump action)..(6 pellets x 28d=168) 400u…..(6 pellets x 15d) 600u 05. Spaz (pump action)…(8 pellets x 25d=200) 400u…..(8 pellets x 05d) 700u 06. 1887 (pump action)…(8 pellets x 30d=240) 300u…..(8 pellets x 20d) 700u So above are all the numbers. We can get a fairly decent feeling for each gun, just by seeing the above numbers. Everyone has also tried all the above guns a few times now. Probably have used the Striker quite a bit. Last, we have all probably read the numerous posts that have the spreadsheets and graphs. From those charts....we can deduce 'where' the 'one-hit' kill spot should be. In the numbers below, we find that, and then also use our conversion formula to give a measurement in 'meters'. 01. AA12 (full auto) - .........Charts - 325u.....7.85m (one-burst kill spot) 02. USAS12 (full auto) -.....Charts - 518u.....12.51m 03. Striker (semi auto) -.....Charts - 525u.....12.68m 04. KS12 (pump action)- ...Charts - 560u ....13.53m 05. Spaz (pump action)-.....Charts - 585u.....14.13m 06. 1887 (pump action) -....Charts - 970u .....23.43m What we are going to do though, is test the above out, and see what the above looks like in actual real game-play. Most notably - at what range do the shotguns give that one-hit kill? See how this looks in game-play. Will our tests match up well with the charts? Let’s find out. Part Three – Gun Chart Shotgun ranges in metersLet’s now put these numbers to the test. We head into a private match and shoot each other with each of the above shotguns. The test itself is pretty simple. We have our test victim keep standing in the same spot. The other person, the shooter, backs away a good bit, and then proceeds to move forward, firing test shots to see where the ‘one-hit’ kill occurs. When it does, we measure the distance with the XM25. Here’s the spot we used. The Map ‘Underground’, up on top, by the buses, looking towards the bus station. Our angle when we shoot: So we begin to test. Our shooter equips each of the six shotguns and tests them. For our first round, we do not equip anything. No proficiencies or attachments. Just a straight up shot, from the hip, aiming at center-mass. One burst of the shotgun. Below are the results, where the ‘one-hit kill’ occurs, in meters, after multiple tests with each gun. 01. AA12 (full auto)………..2.75 m 02. USAS12 (full auto)….…8.50 m 03. Striker (semi auto)…..…7.25 m 04. KS12 (pump action).….9.50 m 05. Spaz (pump action)…...9.75 m 06. 1887 (pump action) ….10.75 m How does that look in actual game-play? Actual visual representation? To help out here...it's about 0.62 meters between lines. Sidewalk to sidewalk, about 11meters. Next up, we can try to see what it looks like when we add 'Range' as a proficiency. For our first example, we use the KS12 and get the one-hit kill range moving out from around 9.50 to 11.5... about 21.1%. That's well within the rounded margin of error, as we can't test that accurately with the XM25, plus, not to mention, slight aiming inaccuracies. So it would appear that at least with the KS12, the charts are correct, a 20% boost range is sort of, kind of, correct. Visually, here's what that looks like, what 'range' gives you. For the most part, I did not find 'range' affected all guns equally. That said, there is a margin of error here. One cannot test precisely with in-game tests. Doing my tests, the KS12 range boost seemed to come out to 21.1%, but the 1887 range boost tested out at 30.23% (10.75m to 14.00m) All in all, the range proficiency boost was between 14% to 35%. I would guess the margin of error is around +/- 5% to 6% with measuring. ...so ...not all guns are equal. Some definitely get a bit more boost from Range. The results. 01. AA12 (full auto)………..2.75 m > 3.5m........boost = 27.2% 02. USAS12 (full auto)….…8.50 m > 11.50m....boost = 35.3% 03. Striker (semi auto)…..…7.25 m > 8.25m.....boost = 13.9% 04. KS12 (pump action).….9.50 m > 11.50m....boost = 21.1% 05. Spaz (pump action)…...9.75 m > 12.50m....boost = 28.2% 06. 1887 (pump action) ….10.75 m > 14.00m....boost = 30.2% Could the title update/fix, done something to the range of only the Striker? So how about Extended Mag? I ran one test and did it with the Striker, as that gets all the use. As you can see, the results you get are a bit ridiculous. The Striker using 'range', then using extended Mag, it gets pushed out to around 11.25 meters. Another 30 to 40% boost on top of the 13.9% boost with range. This is what it looks like. CONCLUSIONThe spreadsheet charts and graphs showing intersecting one-hit kill spots at a certain range (based off of the 'u' measurement), do not match up with the actual in game tests. This is based on the assumption that 41.4u = 1 meter. So for example below, the AA12's one hit kill spot is considerably closer than what the charts say. Pretty much, ALL the shotties 'one-hit' kill spots are much closer than what the charts say, which measure in 'u'. Something is not adding up. 01. AA12 (full auto) - .........Charts - 325u, 7.85m ~ Testing 2.75m = 114u 02. USAS12 (full auto) -.....Charts - 518u, 12.51m ~ Testing 8.50m = 352u 03. Striker (semi auto) -.....Charts - 525u, 12.68m ~ Testing 7.25m = 300u 04. KS12 (pump action)- ...Charts - 560u, 13.53m ~ Testing 9.50m = 393u 05. Spaz (pump action)-.....Charts - 585u, 14.13m ~ Testing 9.75m = 404u 06. 1887 (pump action) -....Charts - 970u, 23.43m ~ Testing 10.75m = 445u Please comment and add some thoughts.
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Post by volgon on Dec 12, 2011 14:32:55 GMT -5
Your analysis for both of these threads is great, though I do have one question. You say that distance is measured in "units". Where do you find these values? The spreadsheet I look at the most (from this thread: denkirson.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=3235 ) lists drop off values as well but they are not the same as yours (For example, you say the MK14 begins drop off at 1950u compared to 1000 on the Google doc). I think the strategy guide values might be in inches or something. Anyway, just curious where you pull your values from so I can calculate drop off for other weapons.
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Post by Champ on Dec 12, 2011 15:01:21 GMT -5
DUH!
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Post by TheHawkNY on Dec 12, 2011 15:13:01 GMT -5
Your analysis for both of these threads is great, though I do have one question. You say that distance is measured in "units". Where do you find these values? The spreadsheet I look at the most (from this thread: denkirson.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=3235 ) lists drop off values as well but they are not the same as yours (For example, you say the MK14 begins drop off at 1950u compared to 1000 on the Google doc). I think the strategy guide values might be in inches or something. Anyway, just curious where you pull your values from so I can calculate drop off for other weapons. He said the range at which you need three bullets to kill, not the range at which the damage drop off begins. The damage goes from 75 to 49 over the distance 1000 to 2000 units. The point at which it becomes a two hit kill is when it drops below 50 damage, which does not happen until past 1,962 units, as noted in column P of the spreadsheet you linked.
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Post by volgon on Dec 12, 2011 15:23:30 GMT -5
Your analysis for both of these threads is great, though I do have one question. You say that distance is measured in "units". Where do you find these values? The spreadsheet I look at the most (from this thread: denkirson.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=3235 ) lists drop off values as well but they are not the same as yours (For example, you say the MK14 begins drop off at 1950u compared to 1000 on the Google doc). I think the strategy guide values might be in inches or something. Anyway, just curious where you pull your values from so I can calculate drop off for other weapons. He said the range at which you need three bullets to kill, not the range at which the damage drop off begins. The damage goes from 75 to 49 over the distance 1000 to 2000 units. The point at which it becomes a two hit kill is when it drops below 50 damage, which does not happen until past 1,962 units, as noted in column P of the spreadsheet you linked. Ah that clears it up. Appreciated!
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 12, 2011 15:45:59 GMT -5
He said the range at which you need three bullets to kill, not the range at which the damage drop off begins. The damage goes from 75 to 49 over the distance 1000 to 2000 units. The point at which it becomes a two hit kill is when it drops below 50 damage, which does not happen until past 1,962 units, as noted in column P of the spreadsheet you linked. Ah that clears it up. Appreciated! Ok...I guess 'thehawkny' cleared that up. To add a bit more. It's fairly easy to double check the MK14, because one can fire one or two bullets in a controlled test. One can also control firing a three bullet burst with the Type95. So those are two very easy measuring references to get, when trying to correlate 'units' to 'meters'. It seems the correlation number is 1 meter = 41.4 units. You'll see some people say it's 1 meter to 40 units. Both are close enough. But as I show in this thread, ....the numbers are not matching up very well, IF the above 1m=41.4u formula is used. Why? 1. We can bar-graph the shotties one-hit kill target spot, the distance, in 'units'. Easy enough. 2. We can also one burst kill test the shotties in testing gameplay. See exactly where one pull of the trigger, one 'burst' (6 to 8 pellets) kills...and measure that exactly in meters. As can be seen here, in my post, the above doesn't match up. Either 1) MW3 charts consistently overestimate the range. A range that is 5m to 10m longer than it should be. Or....2) the conversion formula was never right to begin with. Perhaps the formula should be be higher?
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 12, 2011 15:48:40 GMT -5
...oh.....
and btw the way.
'Champ'
Will you please remove the oversized, huge chart from the post. It messes up all the spacing/margins on the text, in the other posts. Making all the posts in this thread harder to read.
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Post by cashmoves on Dec 12, 2011 15:48:54 GMT -5
this is awesome. could you find which setup produces the longest one shot kill range for both pump and auto categories, and what that range is. I ask bc im assuming damage could affect the results posted.
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 12, 2011 16:03:40 GMT -5
I did some quick experimentation with the two proficiencies....'damage' and 'range'. I tested only one shotty, the KS12 to see what happened. For example, the KS one-hit kills at 9.50 meters. It one-hit kills at around 11.50 meters with range. Damage doesn't seem to make a huge difference, 'maybe' .25 meters less?.
I did not test this on other weapons, I stopped after the KS12.
I did do one test with the Striker, to try out Extended Mag. At least with the Striker, it gave a ridiculous boost on the one-hit kill. 8.25 to 11.25, about 36.4%. Of course, there is some margin of error in there, so let's say the boost is between 30% to 40%. I'm going to guess, if the same coding holds up, the 1887 would have the longest one-hit kill range with Ext mags, putting it from 14.0m to around 18.2m to 19.6m.
20 meters is pretty far. That covers just about every alley and inside corrider in MW3. But keep in mind.....my tests are with hip-firing. A perfectly centered hip-fired shot on center mass, to allow max percentage of pellets to hit. Can anyone hip fire, while moving, an 1887 to perfectly hit center mass of an opponent at 20meters? Probably not. Even one slight off center movement will have the pellets spray off target.
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Post by Zero IX on Dec 12, 2011 19:02:29 GMT -5
I found the Model 1887 with Damage to be able to kill at 17m (according to the XM25) with perfectly centered Steady Aim-assisted hipfire. Naturally, in the heat of battle, this would be difficult to replicate consistently.
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Post by randomguy987 on Dec 12, 2011 19:06:11 GMT -5
Love the "Abbey Road" imagery.
BTW, the 1887 OSK range is a corner solution @ 700 units (or about 16.9m) in the 2nd table because after that point, the pellets disappear. (Assuming I'm reading the range figures correctly.)
I'm not at all surprised that theoretical OSK ranges diverge from empirical OSK ranges because the former assumes that all 6 or 8 pellets are hitting the target (or am I misremembering that other thread?). In game, that's obviously not going to happen most of the time (except at very close ranges). Moreover, because the pellet dispersion pattern is random, the in-game results are going to vary from one shot to the next.
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 12, 2011 19:27:24 GMT -5
Love the "Abbey Road" imagery. BTW, the 1887 OSK range is a corner solution @ 700 units (or about 16.9m) in the 2nd table because after that point, the pellets disappear. (Assuming I'm reading the range figures correctly.) I'm not at all surprised that theoretical OSK ranges diverge from empirical OSK ranges because the former assumes that all 6 or 8 pellets are hitting the target (or am I misremembering that other thread?). In game, that's obviously not going to happen most of the time (except at very close ranges). Moreover, because the pellet dispersion pattern is random, the in-game results are going to vary from one shot to the next. Good post, hadn't thought of that. That's the best explanation I have heard, as to why the empirical is less than the theoretical.
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Post by bedlam36 on Dec 12, 2011 20:36:59 GMT -5
First off, AWESOME job on this. great images and figuring out the u measurement.
Pellets missing is the answer for why #'s are different.
Question, did you use steady aim? I bet all of your distances will increase dramatically if you use steady aim. Pellet dispersion is so random. You can get a burst where 7 of your 8 pellets are left of center, with one way on the right.
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 12, 2011 23:30:31 GMT -5
No, I did not use Steady Aim. For the first base tests....I just used stock guns. No prof, no attachments, no perks.
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Post by wcparker on Dec 13, 2011 1:13:03 GMT -5
I thought steady aim only affected aim, not spread?
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Post by asasa on Dec 13, 2011 1:28:31 GMT -5
Huh? Steady aim only affects spread, not aim.
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Post by bedlam36 on Dec 13, 2011 1:31:24 GMT -5
I thought steady aim only affected aim, not spread? It makes your hipfire reticule smaller, meaning your pellets have a smaller area that they can spread out to. Steady Aim is practically a necessity with shotties in this game. The distance you can one-shot someone is increased drastically with Steady Aim. However, if you have steady aim on, and ADS, your spread while ADSing is larger than hipfiring
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Post by toad on Dec 13, 2011 8:25:33 GMT -5
I'm confused. Finally got to level 62 yesterday and used the 1887 for the first time and noticed that the hip spread reticule was MAHOOOSIVE. I couldn't get a OHK unless they were close to stab distance. Is this a result of a recent patch?
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Post by wwaa on Dec 13, 2011 8:38:51 GMT -5
There is a thin line between shotguns dominating the game and shotguns as a weapons of choice. At the moment shotgun is a „special purpose weapon”, similar to riot shield. You start with SMG, die, respawn with shotgun, do some job, respawn with SMG again. I would not change it.
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 13, 2011 8:53:44 GMT -5
Maybe tonight, I'll do an add-on' testing for the following stuff. We already know the 'theoretical' numbers, they are in the thread. We now know the empirical/tested numbers, they are in the thread too. We can test for steady aim, damage, and ext mags, for all guns.
here are the Theoretical and Empirical numbers so far.....
01. AA12 (full auto) - .........Charts - 325u, 7.85m .......Testing 114u, 2.75m 02. USAS12 (full auto) -.....Charts - 518u, 12.51m .....Testing 352u, 8.50m 03. Striker (semi auto) -.....Charts - 525u, 12.68m .....Testing 300u, 7.25m 04. KS12 (pump action)- ...Charts - 560u, 13.53m.....Testing 393u, 9.50m 05. Spaz (pump action)-.....Charts - 585u, 14.13m.....Testing 404u, 9.75m 06. 1887 (pump action) -....Charts - 970u, 23.43m .....Testing 445u, 10.75m
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 13, 2011 9:07:15 GMT -5
There is a thin line between shotguns dominating the game and shotguns as a weapons of choice. At the moment shotgun is a „special purpose weapon”, similar to riot shield. You start with SMG, die, respawn with shotgun, do some job, respawn with SMG again. I would not change it. And that's the thing, a lot of people seem to be in a rush to think the shotguns are going to dominate and control games. Not true. Even the range on the tested 'one-hit' kill shots, they are only around 7 to 10 meters. .........And that's under controlled, perfectly aimed lab conditions. Move a little, run a little, move the hip fire off a bit....the true 'EFFECTIVE' range on a one-hit shotgun kill on a typical player is easily 20% less. Compare a one-shot kill of 7meters....with a one-burst kill of a type 95, all the way out to 37 meters, or a two bullet MK kill out to 47 meters. 7 < 37 < 47 I don't use the shotgun that much, but fair is fair, they are not overpowered or underpowered. Just about right.
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Post by bedlam36 on Dec 13, 2011 9:24:58 GMT -5
There is a thin line between shotguns dominating the game and shotguns as a weapons of choice. At the moment shotgun is a „special purpose weapon”, similar to riot shield. You start with SMG, die, respawn with shotgun, do some job, respawn with SMG again. I would not change it. Shotguns have never even come close to dominating a COD game. I can count the # of times on one hand that a shotgunner had the highest score in the lobby in a MW2 game. Why should they be on riot shield status?
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 13, 2011 9:34:16 GMT -5
^^^^ disagree with the above.
I've seen guys in my group easily be top scorer with the Striker, MANY times in Domination. Mostly on the smaller maps like Bootleg, Mission, etc...Run up 40 to 50 kills with it. Just keep doing circle loops around the inner building....stairway, past C, around to A, back to the inner stairwell, ...then repeat. Blasting anything in front of them. It's not rocket science but it's also fair.
That said, they can only do it when running the Striker fully tricked out (Dam, Ext Mag, Steady Aim, etc..)
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Post by Zero IX on Dec 13, 2011 10:02:39 GMT -5
Mind status= blown
Shotguns should not be Riot Shield equivalents. The game is already strongly biased in favor of ARs and SMGs on the basis of its mechanics alone; there is absolutely no reason shotguns should be further pigeonholed save for ignorance or a transparent prejudice against players who prefer a style of play other than running and gunning with an AR or SMG.
Shotguns have the most narrow scope of application of any primary weapon classification, including sniper rifles. Even with guaranteed one-shot kills between 7-12m, shotgun users are still at a significant disadvantage and versus AR and SMG users, and anyone who's tried to use MW3 shotguns in their base form knows those one-shot kills are far, far from guaranteed.
MW2 got almost everything about shotguns right except for making them secondaries. As far as MW3 goes, the Striker at max proficiency is an example of how a shotgun should be: dominant within its intended range, because it's literally useless outside of it.
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Post by wwaa on Dec 13, 2011 10:08:32 GMT -5
Compare a one-shot kill of 7meters....with a one-burst kill of a type 95, all the way out to 37 meters, or a two bullet MK kill out to 47 meters. 7 < 37 < 47 Compare aiming skills required…. If 100 points for Type95 then 20 points for a shotgun ? … (just my first guess) … Correct … 5 times 7 meters is arr 37, bingo.
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 13, 2011 10:18:21 GMT -5
Compare a one-shot kill of 7meters....with a one-burst kill of a type 95, all the way out to 37 meters, or a two bullet MK kill out to 47 meters. 7 < 37 < 47 Compare aiming skills required…. If 100 points for Type95 then 20 points for a shotgun ? … (just my first guess) Correct … 5 times 7 meters is arr 37, bingo. I don't get your point? My point was that it's not any easier/harder to aim one three burst with a Type 95 at 37meters....than it is to hip fire a center-mass shot perfectly, at 8 meters. Both require some semblence of skill. Different type of skill, but roughly the same.
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Post by mastermarth on Dec 13, 2011 10:18:41 GMT -5
I don't use the shotgun that much, but fair is fair, they are not overpowered or underpowered. Just about right. They are only 'just right' with Extended Mags (for the extra pellets) and/or Damage/Range. The stock Shotguns are underpowered (except maybe Striker).
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Post by wwaa on Dec 13, 2011 10:44:52 GMT -5
I don't get your point? My point was that it's not any easier/harder to aim one three burst with a Type 95 at 37meters....than it is to hip fire a center-mass shot perfectly, at 8 meters. Both require some semblence of skill. Different type of skill, but roughly the same. Really? I play on PC, I have to aim on my own, maybe that’s the difference. Using a shotgun (MW2 SPAS12 for example) is easy, not even close to FAMAS, TYPE95, MK14 or FAL, wher you have small iron sights, smal target, 1 or 3 bullets, - not a 10 times bigger center-mass and a rain of pellets if trigger pulled.
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Post by iw5000 on Dec 13, 2011 10:57:22 GMT -5
Yes, really?
It's not easy to be running around, and then hip fire a shotgun 8 to 9 meters away, hoping that all 6 to 8 pellets ALL hit for the one-hit kill. Hit center mass perfectly. Be slightly off by sliver, a fraction, 2 pellets miss ...... you don't have the OHK.
the above is no harder, easier,....than lining up a red dot on an opponent at 35 meters....and simply one bursting a shot with the T95. Especially with rapid fire. If the first bullet hits, the 2nd and 3rd are a given.
in fact...i would say the 9m hip shot with the shotgun is harder.
one more thing....The target at 10m is bigger in size to see....but, its' all relative. A shotgun's pellets can spray at 10m, whereas a T95 three bullets are like lasers at 35m.
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Zero IX
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Post by Zero IX on Dec 13, 2011 11:06:25 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wwa seems to be suggesting that shotguns require less "aiming skill" than the Type-95 or MK14.
Anyone who has used the SPAS-12 or Model 1887 extensively knows those guns have a much higher margin of error than any AR or SMG. Perfectly centering hipfire crosshairs over centermass on targets in excess of 12m is difficult, especially when you're likely to die during the manual action if you fail to kill the target. You must be fast, accurate, and rarely get a second chance.
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