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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 9:44:19 GMT -5
Last summer there was a thread floating around on this board, discussing what FPS is going to knock off CoD Ghosts, when it came out in Nov of 2013. I can't remember all the games being discussed, but the passage of time answered the question. No other games beat it. It's still going to be the leading FPS. CoD Ghosts won.
But, there is more to the story. CoD is a declining game. To date, as of Mid June 2014, it's pretty safe to say that CoD Ghosts has established that CoD's mega success of every increasing sales every year jumped the shark. A trend is now firmly established, showing the peak of CoD's sales success was MW3, when it sold around 30 million units. BO2 sold around 25 million, and now CoD Ghosts is on pace to sell around 21 to 22 million. Trend is there. Yearly increasing sales, the peak, is in the rear view mirror.
From my estimates, it looked like two factors did CoD in, contributing to 4 million less people buying it. About half of the cause was Ghosts itself. The moves IW made with slightly larger maps, others changes, didn't work. The game just got slower. Play it enough and past problems become magnified. It's campier and you are more prone to random asshats killing you from obscure hidden corners. People are sick and tired of that bullsh1t. Blah. The other reason? The new consoles coming out. A person only has so many dollars to spend on video game stuff. And if you buy a new console (around 11 to 12 million people did), you have $400 to $500 less to spend on games. That seems to be the case, because just about every A-rated sequel title that came out after last November saw fewer sales. CoD Ghosts got hit (-20%) Battlefield 4 got thumped (-44%), and other games that came out in the spring haven't really seen blockbuster sales. See Titanfall. It has sold well, around 4 million units, but not approaching Halo like success (as was anticipated) on the Xbox Platform.
So what's the lineup for this November? Where will the cool bros be playing? The in-crowd? Can anyone fill in the blanks below on what will be the FPS king?
Here's what I have heard so far....
0. Jul 14 - Enemy Front..................................CR Games. Small group. This is a WW2 FPS due out soon. 1. Aug 14 - Sniper Elite 3...............................?. thoughts? Sniper Elite 1 & 2 didn't seem to catch on. 2. Sep 14 - Destiny.....................................Activision and Bungie, bringing out what looks like Halo + CoD + Borderlands. 3. Oct 14 - BattleField: Hardline...................... (kind of cops vs robbers thing, looks like the GTA multiplayer) 4. Oct 14 - Alien Isolation.................................Creative Assembly Foxtroted this up last time. Why would this be better 5. Oct 14 - Evolve.........................................The people behind Left 4 Dead are doing something different with FPS. This might be cool. 6. Nov 14 - Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare........not much needs said here. 7. Nov 14 - Halo Bundle Pack (XBox)......................(Halo 1 through 4, all bundled together into one new game, with new graphics) 8. Nov 14 - Far Cry 4.....................................Far Cry 1 through 3 couldn't take the reigns, why would #4 be able to? 9. Feb 15 - TitanFall 2 (XBox)...........................There will be a sequel. Can Respawntake TF2 to the next level, like they did with MW2? 0. Feb 15 - Borderlands 3................................Borderlands seems unable to get past 4 to 5 million units sold. Style? 1. Feb 15 - Dying Light .....................................More of a zombie FPS, than military FPS. 2. Mar 15 - Tom Clancy Rainbow 6: Seige (PS)............2015 from what I can tell form E3. E3 showed a trailer. 3. Apr 15 - Doom 4.......................................iD Software has left details sketchy on this release.
So let's say the FPS universe has 35 million people who love to shoot sh1t. Which of the above game is going to get most of the people?
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Post by TheHawkNY on Jun 11, 2014 10:33:39 GMT -5
COD.
Assume that it sees a decrease of ~14-15% for a third consecutive year. That still puts it at 18.5 million units sold. No console exclusive title has a shot at touching that number. (That's over 50% more than the top Halo game ever sold). In the meantime, sales of Battlefield went down 41% from BF3 to BF4, and BF3 wasn't at that level. The cops and robbers thing will probably be lucky to reach BF4 numbers. Destiny is clearly a big title, but it's a new IP, and unlikely to get anywhere near COD numbers in the first release.
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Post by markopolo on Jun 11, 2014 11:18:39 GMT -5
The only COD competition is between IW, sledgehammer, and 3arc
No other franchise comes close
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 11:31:30 GMT -5
What is interesting is that CoD went from a long time/long standing 4 to 6 million unit game (Oct of 2003 to summer of 2007), and with a few tweaks of MW1 coming out in Nov of 2007 (modern era stuff), it suddenly skyrocketed into being THE kind of FPS'ers in months, getting 17 million units sold by the next summer of 2008. Maybe someone can correct me, but 2008, 2009 , 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014....all will be 'won' by Call of Duty.
Doom, Borderlands, Far Cry, TitanFall, ...all are bringing sequels in. TitanFall is the only one I could see doing the above mega leap, but the problem is, it's an Xbox exclusive. It can't get there unless Xbox One's installed base numbers hit 20 million. That's not happening by next fall.
Here's a trivia question. Which game was the FPS King during those pre-CoD years? Say 2001 to 2007? I don't remember much. I played Halo. I played some Unreal Tournament on the PC. I don't remember what games were big.
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Post by mannon on Jun 11, 2014 11:38:08 GMT -5
Does Sniper Elite really even count? It's not really an FPS as it's 3rd person until you scope in, and given the pacing of the game it could barely be called a shooter. More of an action/stealth hybrid and I can't imagine the multiplayer catching on, though I quite like the games in single player and the open world of 3 looks cool.
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Post by wings on Jun 11, 2014 11:41:09 GMT -5
Apologies for the major derp but exactly what is Rainbow Six Siege knocking off Call of Duty from?
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 11:44:03 GMT -5
Apologies for the major derp but exactly what is Rainbow Six Siege knocking off Call of Duty from? lol I just tried to find any and all FPS'er games coming out next fall or later. Games that could in theory, dethrone CoD. I just put down any game I could find. If I am missing any, let me know, i'll add them to the list. And dethrone CoD from being the King of the Shooters. It's been sitting on the throne, best I can tell, since 2008.
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Post by mannon on Jun 11, 2014 11:48:28 GMT -5
As for Titanfall I don't see it blowing up this time around though a sequel has major potential. This time around the XBone exclusive definitely hurts and it's a new IP with a lot to prove. I think it's doing well and showing promise, but not likely to go megahuge this time around. Now a sequel without an exclusive, with maybe a bit more stuff (progression, weapons, ect whatever keeps the kiddies playing), and hopefully an expanded multiplayer campaign mode and/or maybe even a single player campaign... That could do some work. If they'd be really smart and throw in some limited destructable environments as well as more pilot/titan/Weapon customization that could be pretty massive. But any decent sequel won't be out for 2 or 3 years at best unless they split themselves into two dev teams and started the second one a while back... which I hope not as the sequel would probably suck. Pretty sure they aren't doing that, though.
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Post by n1gh7 on Jun 11, 2014 11:49:53 GMT -5
Destiny is the only thing that has a chance this year.
Titanfall's sequel may have a chance later when it comes out if it goes multi-platform and follows more traditional game features (campaign, etc).
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wings
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Post by wings on Jun 11, 2014 11:52:20 GMT -5
Apologies for the major derp but exactly what is Rainbow Six Siege knocking off Call of Duty from? lol I just tried to find any and all FPS'er games coming out next fall or later. Games that could in theory, dethrone CoD. I just put down any game I could find. If I am missing any, let me know, i'll add them to the list. And dethrone CoD from being the King of the Shooters. It's been sitting on the throne, best I can tell, since 2008. I guess my bet would be Destiny but I haven't heard much on it apart from players of COD and Borderlands might like it. I know of a few regular players of Borderlands and not many of them are into the military shooters but Destiny appeals to some of them and some COD players I know of are looking forward to Destiny themselves. I'm not sure if COD will be dethroned for a fair while yet because the competition for a shooter (in the general sense) is quite sparse. Heh, looks like I interpreted knock off differently. I thought you meant knock off as in a cheap imitation.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 11:57:31 GMT -5
Trying to remember, I'm going to guess Halo 3 was the 'King of Shooters' in 2007. It came out in Sept of 2007. MW1 (which came out in Nov), didn't do blockbuster numbers like it does now.
2007 - Halo 3 2006 - Gears of War? Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter? 2005 - BatttleField 2? Call of Duty 2? (seems like the sports titles, like Madden, were big back then) 2004 - Halo 2 2003 - ? 2002 - ? 2001 - Halo 1
It's pretty amazing what made a top selling game back in early in the decade (2001 to 2006). A couple million made the game a best seller. That's considered almost a failure these days.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 12:01:25 GMT -5
As for Titanfall I don't see it blowing up this time around though a sequel has major potential. This time around the XBone exclusive definitely hurts and it's a new IP with a lot to prove. I think it's doing well and showing promise, but not likely to go megahuge this time around. Now a sequel without an exclusive, with maybe a bit more stuff (progression, weapons, ect whatever keeps the kiddies playing), and hopefully an expanded multiplayer campaign mode and/or maybe even a single player campaign... That could do some work. If they'd be really smart and throw in some limited destructable environments as well as more pilot/titan/Weapon customization that could be pretty massive. But any decent sequel won't be out for 2 or 3 years at best unless they split themselves into two dev teams and started the second one a while back... which I hope not as the sequel would probably suck. Pretty sure they aren't doing that, though. that's true. I had assumed a TF2 was in the works. But with only one team, there is no chance of that happening by next spring. TF2 would have to be in the spring of 2016.
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Post by markopolo on Jun 11, 2014 12:04:54 GMT -5
Any game that is console exclusive, has somewhere between "no fucking chance" and "zero fucking chance" of dethroning COD... statistically speaking.
The only thing that can destroy COD is COD
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Post by mannon on Jun 11, 2014 12:23:41 GMT -5
I dunno about that. Console market is huge and they mostly don't really know or care what's going on with PC which is not as true of the PC market, though I think there's also more PC gamers with consoles than there are console gamers that play PC games.
Having said that I think Destiny appeals more to Halo and Borderlands fans than CoD.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 12:26:48 GMT -5
I think right now, right this moment, TF is a better game than CoD Ghosts. Like when I am in a game, playingn I have more fun playing it. TF has less annoying WTF moments. But there are other issues which keep it from being my most played game. Not everyone has it. Social aspects are huge. Group partying-up seems a bit trickier and more time consuming. Last, a lot of little things CoD does well, to amuse. Like the camo stuff, stats, etc...
But as everyone said, it's on one platform. It can't knock of CoD next year, especially with it's sequel not coming out.
I think there is a strong chance CoD AW keeps going down again next year. The consoles will be split again, four ways. That breaks up the community/social grip CoD has.
Destiny is probably the biggest threat I think. But I'm not sold on the game yet. At least on paper. Nothing I have seen so far looks that intriguing to me. Even it's 'special ability' stuff one gets after doing so much killing. Blah. That sounds exactly like TitanFall. TitanFall gets you a Titan if you do enough stuff. Destiny gets you a special ability if you do enough stuff.
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 11, 2014 12:30:36 GMT -5
When discussing this topic, I think that we should do it by platform. After all, the MP experience is heavily affected by the player population, and player population are segregated by platform.
With that as the criterion, Titanfall already dethroned CoD on XONE: more copies sold, and (although no direct data to back this up) I also believe a lot more players playing. Of course, this is a bit unfair to Ghosts because it is a last gen game, but the fact is still significant.
To predict for the upcoming holiday season, my 2 cents:
1) Destiny is going to beat CoD AW easily on PS4. The game looks strong in all departments: campaign, open world, MP, etc. Even in just MP, I think Destiny is going to attract significant number of CoD fans because the game is designed to be much more attractive to this crowd than Halo.
Also, the marketing muscles of ActiVision will go heavily into Destiny (with half a billion dollar investment, they have to). More importantly, Sony is coming out riding this game like it is the most important title on PS4 this holiday season, the hype is going to be at all time high. Even MSFT has to ride the hype a little bit, they are repairing their relationship with Bungie.
2) Destiny vs. CoD AW on XONE is going to be a close battle. If I have to place a bet, I'll put my money on CoD AW for a narrow victory;
3) Battlefield vs. CoD AW: personally I am intrigued by the new twist of Battlefield and it could be my first Battlefield purchase. However, I don't think BF has a chance to take out CoD;
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Post by markopolo on Jun 11, 2014 12:36:07 GMT -5
I dunno about that. Console market is huge and they mostly don't really know or care what's going on with PC which is not as true of the PC market, though I think there's also more PC gamers with consoles than there are console gamers that play PC games. Having said that I think Destiny appeals more to Halo and Borderlands fans than CoD. But if that game is only on one console (PS or XB, it doesn't matter) it is pigeonholing itself. Take me for example: I don't have, and have no plans to get, an XBox One so I could give a shit about anything Titanfall related. It could be the best thing to the FPS genre since whatever... it could revolutionize gaming as we know it... it won't make me shell out 500 to buy a second system. Titanfall is totally irrelevant to me. All because it's console exclusive to the Xbox. Now, if it came out on PS4, I would have bought it already. But it isn't, so unless I'm at a friends house and they have it, I'll never play it. Any game franchise that wants to dethrone the COD franchise has to be available to all systems, nextgen and current gen and handheld.
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Post by n1gh7 on Jun 11, 2014 12:41:21 GMT -5
Does anyone really think that versions for handhelds, PC, or Wii are required to have a game "take the throne"?
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 11, 2014 12:43:09 GMT -5
Does anyone really think that versions for handhelds, PC, or Wii are required to have a game "take the throne"? Not me Based on the data I can see, soon (like in 6 months) the throne will be decided by XONE + PS4 and that's it. The Watch Dogs numbers already show the trend pretty clearly: Global Watch Dogs sale numbers for week 1 (05/31): www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41791/Global/PS4: 1,856,387 XONE: 898,780 X360: 457,620 PS3: 427,117 PC: 109,037
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Post by markopolo on Jun 11, 2014 12:47:53 GMT -5
I threw the handheld in there, just for esses and gees
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Post by n1gh7 on Jun 11, 2014 12:50:23 GMT -5
Does anyone really think that versions for handhelds, PC, or Wii are required to have a game "take the throne"? Not me Based on the data I can see, soon (like in 6 months) the throne will be decided by XONE + PS4 and that's it. Yeah, I would even extend this to last-gen. I think that X360 and PS3 versions are a waste for developers at this point. If no new games were made for last-gen consoles, people would upgrade their consoles faster than they currently are. And with focused resources the games would be better as well. If TF was an XONE exclusive many more XONEs would have been sold, at a cost of overall sales of TF certainly, but it would have put MS at an even better place in the "console war".
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Post by mannon on Jun 11, 2014 12:50:30 GMT -5
Oh I do agree that any game that's going to be serious competition has to be cross platform, but I don't think it necessarily has to be on PC. It helps, certainly. But the reigning champ on console doesn't have to be the reigning champ on PC, in fact it's not likely. On PC games like TF2 still have a huge player base even though they are largely ignored by the industry because they're old and/or free to play. But there's the thing, how do you define what's "beating" CoD? Sales alone is a pretty narrow picture. You could say revenue or profits, but then nobody releases much info on that so it would be impossible to compare. Personally, I'm more interested in what people are playing than buying, though you've got whole other issues with gathering and comparing stats on that one. *shrug*
Besides... CoD:AW looks pretty cool, (whether it lives up to that or not...) I think CoD stays on top for another round and then next time around may be a lot tighter.
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Post by n1gh7 on Jun 11, 2014 12:52:49 GMT -5
Oh I do agree that any game that's going to be serious competition has to be cross platform, but I don't think it necessarily has to be on PC. It helps, certainly. But the reigning champ on console doesn't have to be the reigning champ on PC, in fact it's not likely. On PC games like TF2 still have a huge player base even though they are largely ignored by the industry because they're old and/or free to play. But there's the thing, how do you define what's "beating" CoD? Sales alone is a pretty narrow picture. You could say revenue or profits, but then nobody releases much info on that so it would be impossible to compare. Personally, I'm more interested in what people are playing than buying, though you've got whole other issues with gathering and comparing stats on that one. *shrug* Besides... CoD:AW looks pretty cool, (whether it lives up to that or not...) I think CoD stays on top for another round and then next time around may be a lot tighter. "Beating" for me is number of unique users playing online. Much like the Halo 3 and COD4 XBL battle for the top spot. I think COD:AW's coolness is the only reason COD has a chance to staying on top for another year. If a BO3 was released this year, it would fail. People are sick of that standard COD formula.
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Post by n1gh7 on Jun 11, 2014 12:56:42 GMT -5
Yeah, I think that X360 and PS3 versions are a waste for developers from now on. If no new games were made for last-gen consoles, people would upgrade their consoles faster than they currently are. And with focused resources the games would be better as well. If TF was an XONE exclusive many more XONEs would have been sold, at a cost of overall sales of TF certainly, but it would have put MS at an even better place in the "console war". its has to be more gradual than its been in the past because of how much larger the 360/wii/ps3 gen was than the previous one. People are all buying new consoles alongside a particular game, but there's still a huge market for including the previous gen. They sold a million copies on 360 and ps3, which im sure at least covered the costs of porting it to those platforms. True, but development resources are finite and are not just constrained to cost.
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Post by ChloeB42 (Alexcalibur42) on Jun 11, 2014 12:58:03 GMT -5
The problem is very few of these are even similar to CoD and the ones that are are exclusives or Battlefield. Soooo....
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 11, 2014 13:01:03 GMT -5
Oh I do agree that any game that's going to be serious competition has to be cross platform, but I don't think it necessarily has to be on PC. It helps, certainly. But the reigning champ on console doesn't have to be the reigning champ on PC, in fact it's not likely. On PC games like TF2 still have a huge player base even though they are largely ignored by the industry because they're old and/or free to play. But there's the thing, how do you define what's "beating" CoD? Sales alone is a pretty narrow picture. You could say revenue or profits, but then nobody releases much info on that so it would be impossible to compare. Personally, I'm more interested in what people are playing than buying, though you've got whole other issues with gathering and comparing stats on that one. *shrug* Besides... CoD:AW looks pretty cool, (whether it lives up to that or not...) I think CoD stays on top for another round and then next time around may be a lot tighter. "Beating" for me is number of unique users playing online. Much like the Halo 3 and COD4 XBL battle for the top spot. I think COD:AW's coolness is the only reason COD has a chance to staying on top for another year. If a BO3 was released this year, it would fail. People are sick of that standard COD formula. 1) I am more interested in how many are playing too. Sadly such numbers are no longer published. 2) Regarding CoD:AW "coolness": it is going to be a double edged sword. I already heard many CoD fans expressing concerns about these "futuristic" elements. To put it simply, they don't want them. Below is a great quote from one of our clanmates, responding to an earlier comment that CoD:AW is definitely going to be different: That's how strong some of these folks feel about the new changes
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Post by mannon on Jun 11, 2014 13:03:32 GMT -5
If TF was an XONE exclusive many more XONEs would have been sold, at a cost of overall sales of TF certainly, but it would have put MS at an even better place in the "console war". I dunno if it would have been worth it. As is TF was delayed on 360 for quite a while and they didn't even release video or screens of it. I think that was to maximize people's assumption that it would be much worse on 360. I think most people willing to buy an XBone for TF probably did so and most of the people playing it on 360 wouldn't have coughed up that much money for the new console anyway. Yeah, it could have sold a few more, but that would have hurt Respawn and EA's sales quite a bit due to the much MUCH larger 360 installed base. That would have required even more compensation than they already received for being an XBox "exclusive", and the fact that MS didn't cough up enough to keep if off of PC either tells me there was only so far they were willing to go to use it to push the XBone. It might have paid off or might not have. Hard to say without knowing what it would have cost them. With as badly as they've screwed the pooch with this console launch I doubt it would have made all that much difference. But they'll hang in there.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 13:07:31 GMT -5
There are still XB360's and PS3's being sold. And to date, both have sold around or 85 million each. There's still a huge installed base. Who knows who much. 20 to 30 million active? That's a lot bigger than the 5 & 8 X1 and PS4 users. I can't imagine those people would be dumped that fast. Even next fall, I think CoD AW is going to release a 360 and PS3 version. It seems like most of the games on the above list I made, will be or include the older platforms.
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 11, 2014 13:09:11 GMT -5
Just for the record, mannon did a misquote above. The sentence highlighted is not my words I think TF on X360 is well worth it. Significant amount of people want to play the game but don't want to commit to XONE. Have it on X360 is a great compromise. BTW, the team who did the port has done a fantastic job, and the same team will be working on making CoD AW work on last gen as well.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 11, 2014 13:12:22 GMT -5
Oh I do agree that any game that's going to be serious competition has to be cross platform, but I don't think it necessarily has to be on PC. It helps, certainly. But the reigning champ on console doesn't have to be the reigning champ on PC, in fact it's not likely. On PC games like TF2 still have a huge player base even though they are largely ignored by the industry because they're old and/or free to play. But there's the thing, how do you define what's "beating" CoD? Sales alone is a pretty narrow picture. You could say revenue or profits, but then nobody releases much info on that so it would be impossible to compare. Personally, I'm more interested in what people are playing than buying, though you've got whole other issues with gathering and comparing stats on that one. *shrug*. I just included sales as the primary criteria, because it's easy to track. And while a sale doesn't necessarily measure how much the player keeps playing the game, for most of the FPS'ers over the years, it has stayed pretty consistent. Big sales = big player bases, which tend to leads to more ongoing active player bases, which tend to erode at similar rates.
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