
Post by chyros on Nov 21, 2009 13:42:47 GMT 5
Hi Den, from this one topic you seemed to have obtained the probabilities of killstreaks turning up in care packages and emergence drops. Could you list them for me please? Thanks mate .



Post by individual on Nov 21, 2009 14:32:26 GMT 5
Den, could you please tell me the secret of life, the universe, and everything?


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Post by Den on Nov 21, 2009 15:05:13 GMT 5
According to maps\mp\killstreaks\_airdrop.gsc
The Care Package and Emergency Airdrop (mega) have a think process in which it picks one of the other killstreaks is a lottery raffle style (the game actually refers to it as "Mario Kart Style"), with some having more chances to be chosen.
ammo 17 uav 17 counter_uav 15 sentry 12 predator_missile 12 airdrop_precision_airstrike 11 airdrop_harrier_airstrike 7 helicopter 7 helicopter_flares 5 (this is the PaveLow) stealth_airstrike 5 helicopter_minigun 3 ac130 3 emp 1 nuke 0
mega_ammo 12 mega_uav 12 mega_counter_uav 16 mega_sentry 16 mega_predator_missile 14 mega_precision_airstrike 10 mega_harrier_airstrike 5 mega_helicopter 5 mega_helicopter_flares 3 mega_stealth_airstrike 3 mega_helicopter_minigun 2 mega_ac130 2 mega_emp 0 mega_nuke 0
The Emergency Airdrop has less in favor of the Ammo and UAV, so later streaks have a slightly better chance. 42


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Post by mdnl on Nov 21, 2009 15:23:54 GMT 5
Considering the low chance of the CG or AC130 on those stats, I feel quite lucky as I hit them quite often and rarely get an ammo. I would say I get Sentry most, then UAV then Harrier then Stealth Bomber then AC/CG and THEN ammo. I guess I've just tempted fate Maybe I do get a lot of ammo but just ignore it as I run hardline and get about 5 care packages per game lol.



Post by slashdolo on Nov 21, 2009 19:42:46 GMT 5
I have gotten more Chopper Gunners from Care Packages than I have Ammo.



Post by chyros on Nov 21, 2009 21:57:21 GMT 5
According to maps\mp\killstreaks\_airdrop.gsc The Care Package and Emergency Airdrop (mega) have a think process in which it picks one of the other killstreaks is a lottery raffle style, with some having more chances to be chosen. ammo 17 uav 17 counter_uav 15 sentry 12 predator_missile 12 airdrop_precision_airstrike 11 airdrop_harrier_airstrike 7 helicopter 7 helicopter_flares 5 (this is the PaveLow) stealth_airstrike 5 helicopter_minigun 3 ac130 3 emp 1 nuke 0 mega_ammo 12 mega_uav 12 mega_counter_uav 16 mega_sentry 16 mega_predator_missile 14 mega_precision_airstrike 10 mega_harrier_airstrike 5 mega_helicopter 5 mega_helicopter_flares 3 mega_stealth_airstrike 3 mega_helicopter_minigun 2 mega_ac130 2 mega_emp 0 mega_nuke 0 The Emergency Airdrop has less in favor of the Ammo and UAV, so later streaks have a slightly better chance. 42Thanks a bunch, man . So basically the chance of getting ammo is 17/(the sum of all the values)? And I'm assuming helicopter_minigun is the chopper gunner, right?


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Post by n1gh7 on Nov 21, 2009 22:29:51 GMT 5
According to maps\mp\killstreaks\_airdrop.gsc The Care Package and Emergency Airdrop (mega) have a think process in which it picks one of the other killstreaks is a lottery raffle style, with some having more chances to be chosen. ammo 17 uav 17 counter_uav 15 sentry 12 predator_missile 12 airdrop_precision_airstrike 11 airdrop_harrier_airstrike 7 helicopter 7 helicopter_flares 5 (this is the PaveLow) stealth_airstrike 5 helicopter_minigun 3 ac130 3 emp 1 nuke 0 mega_ammo 12 mega_uav 12 mega_counter_uav 16 mega_sentry 16 mega_predator_missile 14 mega_precision_airstrike 10 mega_harrier_airstrike 5 mega_helicopter 5 mega_helicopter_flares 3 mega_stealth_airstrike 3 mega_helicopter_minigun 2 mega_ac130 2 mega_emp 0 mega_nuke 0 The Emergency Airdrop has less in favor of the Ammo and UAV, so later streaks have a slightly better chance. 42Thanks a bunch, man . So basically the chance of getting ammo is 17/(the sum of all the values)? And I'm assuming helicopter_minigun is the chopper gunner, right? Yes and it's over 100 so each number is a percentage. (eg. 17%)


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Post by qupie on Nov 21, 2009 23:33:28 GMT 5
got 3x ammo in one drop just an hour ago and one AC 130, wich a noob in my team stole :@ ) he didn't even know you can switch weapons, only shot with the big gun and only had 3 kills


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Post by n1gh7 on Nov 23, 2009 17:53:01 GMT 5
I didn't add the first one so I just assumed that it was out of 100 like the second one. Sue me.
Think if you got 2 or 3 EMPs from an air drop 1/2 way through the game. This could disable the team for
Nice location playn.



Post by dchoi41 on Nov 24, 2009 8:25:55 GMT 5
The emergency drop is out of 100, so it's just percentage chances there. If anyone wants them for the regular care package (out of 115), here's what they work out to: 14.78%  UAV 14.78%  Ammo 13.04%  Counter UAV 10.43%  Sentry Gun 10.43%  Predator Missile 9.57%  Precision Airstrike 6.09%  Harrier Airstrike 6.09%  Attack Helicopter 4.35%  Pave Low 4.35%  Stealth Airstrike 2.61%  Chopper Gunner 2.61%  AC130 0.87%  EMP From my personal experience, though, it seems more like Ammo is 60%.


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Post by playn on Nov 24, 2009 9:14:37 GMT 5
@nh1jh7 thanks The emergency drop is out of 100, so it's just percentage chances there. If anyone wants them for the regular care package (out of 115), here's what they work out to: 14.78%  UAV 14.78%  Ammo 13.04%  Counter UAV 10.43%  Sentry Gun 10.43%  Predator Missile 9.57%  Precision Airstrike 6.09%  Harrier Airstrike 6.09%  Attack Helicopter 4.35%  Pave Low 4.35%  Stealth Airstrike 2.61%  Chopper Gunner 2.61%  AC130 0.87%  EMP From my personal experience, though, it seems more like Ammo is 60%. woah EMP is less than 1% chance and ive gotten it



Post by dale08 on Nov 24, 2009 9:28:42 GMT 5
Tactical Nuke isn't on the list and I've got it nah. Good job guys with the info and nice to see playn here.



Post by necromas on Nov 25, 2009 18:50:14 GMT 5
Thanks Den, you won't believe how often I have to link to this info on the gamefaqs boards.



Post by bigslick on Nov 28, 2009 13:48:34 GMT 5
Thanks ssog for the correction. I didn't accurately account for the complement which messed up the calculations.
After using the binomial formula (n/r)*(p^r)*(1p)^nr to account for "at least" occurances I got slightly different numbers than yours on the one I bothered to calculate.
Precision Airstrike 10% chance of dropping from emergency
r=1 (4/1)*(1/10)^1*(1(1/10))^41 = .292
r=2 (4/2)*(1/10)^2*(1(1/10))^42 = .0162
r=3 (4/3)*(1/10)^3*(1(1/10))^43 = .001
r=4 (4/4)*(1/10)^4*(1(1/10))^44 = .0001
Which brings the chance for precision airstrike dropping at least once to roughly 31% (.292 + .0162 + .001 + .0001) as opposed to your 34.4%. I know the margin is minimal but can you see where my math deviates from yours?
Edited for inaccurate information.



Post by ssog on Nov 28, 2009 14:59:53 GMT 5
I took the information here and pushed it a little further for practical reasons. Below are the emergency air drop percentages, followed by the chance for at least one of the crates to drop out of four in parentheses. This should give you a better idea of your chance to obtain a certain drop assuming you are able to capture all of the dropped crates. Emergency Care Package 12%  Ammo (48%) 12%  UAV (48%) 16%  Counter UAV (64%) 16%  Sentry Gun (64%) 14%  Predator Missle (56%) 10%  Precision Airstrike (40%) 5%  Harrier (20%) 5%  Attack Helicopter (20%) 3%  PaveLow (12%) 3%  Stealth Airstrike (12%) 2%  Chopper Gunner (8%) 2%  AC130 (8%) 0%  EMP (0%) 0%  Nuke (0%) You are my bro, bro. Your numbers are off. You can't just multiply the chances by 4. It doesn't work like that. If it did, then if something had a 30% chance of dropping, then you'd have a 120% chance of getting it from an Air Drop. How can you have a better than 100% chance to get something? Look at it this way, instead imagine that there are only two killstreak rewards. We'll call them "UAV" and "NotUAV". Let's say there's a 30% chance that the care package is a UAV, and a 70% chance that it's a NotUAV. If you want to find out the odds of getting at least 1 UAV, then they'll be the same as the odds of *NOT* getting 4 NotUAVs (because if you get 4 NotUAVs, then you didn't get any UAVs, and if you get 3 or fewer NotUAVs, then you got one or more UAV). What are the odds of getting 4 NotUAVs? Well, there's a .70 chance the first package is a NotUAV. There's a .70 chance the second package is. There's a .70 chance the third one is. There's a .70 chance the fourth one is. The odds that all four are NotUAVs is therefore .70 x .70 x .70 x .70, or .24 (24%). If you have a 24% chance of getting 4 NotUAVs, then that means you have a (10024)% chance of getting at least one UAV. Therefore, if something has a 30% chance of dropping, you have a 76% chance (not a 120% chance) of getting at least one during an air drop. With all of the math explained and out of the way, here are the true odds of getting at least one of any given reward in an airdrop, expressed both as a percentage and as a very rough ratio (I rounded heavily on the ratios to make them as simple as possible): Ammo: 40.0% (1 in 2.5, or 2 in 5) UAV: 40.0% (1 in 2.5, or 2 in 5) CounterUAV: 50.2% (~1 in 2) Sentry Gun: 50.2% (~1 in 2) Predator: 45.3% (~1 in 2) Precision Airstrike: 34.4% (~1 in 3) Harrier: 18.5% (~1 in 5) Chopper: 18.5% (~1 in 5) Pave Low: 11.5% (~1 in 9) Stealth Bombers: 11.5% (~1 in 9) Chopper Gunner: 7.8% (~1 in 13) AC130: 7.8% (~1 in 13)



Post by imrlybord7 on Nov 28, 2009 16:17:27 GMT 5
bigslick, I recommend taking a math class at some point in the near future. The total obviously adds up to 400% (100 x 4). Please tell me you see something wrong with that.



Post by bigslick on Nov 28, 2009 18:14:13 GMT 5
bigslick, I recommend taking a math class at some point in the near future. The total obviously adds up to 400% (100 x 4). Please tell me you see something wrong with that. Thanks for the (100 x 4) I wouldn't have understood without that.



Post by kcpwnsgman on Nov 28, 2009 19:45:53 GMT 5
bigslick, I recommend taking a math class at some point in the near future. The total obviously adds up to 400% (100 x 4). Please tell me you see something wrong with that. he's talking about the airdrop, where there are 4 packages dropped... so the percent chances are correct



Post by ssog on Nov 29, 2009 0:01:33 GMT 5
bigslick, I recommend taking a math class at some point in the near future. The total obviously adds up to 400% (100 x 4). Please tell me you see something wrong with that. imrlybord7, I recommend taking a reading comprehension class and a "notbeingadoucheovertheinternet" class at some point in the near future. Since emergency air drop results in 4 care packages, the odds of getting at least one of any given item will total well over 100%. I don't see anything wrong with that. so the percent chances are correct No, they aren't, for the reason I already listed.



Post by ssog on Nov 29, 2009 0:26:43 GMT 5
Thanks ssog for the correction. I didn't accurately account for the complement which messed up the calculations. After using the binomial formula (n/r)*(p^r)*(1p)^nr to account for "at least" occurances I got slightly different numbers than yours on the one I bothered to calculate. Precision Airstrike 10% chance of dropping from emergency r=1 (4/1)*(1/10)^1*(1(1/10))^41 = .292 r=2 (4/2)*(1/10)^2*(1(1/10))^42 = .0162 r=3 (4/3)*(1/10)^3*(1(1/10))^43 = .001 r=4 (4/4)*(1/10)^4*(1(1/10))^44 = .0001 Which brings the chance for precision airstrike dropping at least once to roughly 31% (.292 + .0162 + .001 + .0001) as opposed to your 34.4%. I know the margin is minimal but can you see where my math deviates from yours? Edited for inaccurate information.Instead of (n/r), the equation should begin with (n Choose r). That gives the following: (4Choose1)*(1/10)^1*(1(1/10))^(41) = .292 (4Choose2)*(1/10)^2*(1(1/10))^(42) = .0486 (4Choose3)*(1/10)^3*(1(1/10))^(43) = .0036 (4Choose4)*(1/10)^4*(1(1/10))^(44) = .0001 .2920 + .0486 + .0036 + .0001 = .3443 = 34.4% To explain why in simple terms, think of the reasoning behind the formula: If we name the crates A, B, C, and D, then there are four ways we can get exactly one Airstrike (either A comes up positive, or B does, or C does, or D does). This is given to us with the (4Choose1) function. The odds of one crate coming up Airstrike are 10%. This is given to us by the (p^r) portion of the equation, which in layterms basically just says "the probability of an Air Strike coming up, multiplied by itself the number of times the Air Strike comes up". The odds of the other 3 crates coming up Not Airstrike are .9 * .9 * .9, or .729. This is given to us by the (1p)^(nr) portion, which in layterms basically just says "the probability of a Not Air Strike coming up, multiplied by itself the number of times that the Not Air Strike comes up". Multiply all of those numbers together, and you have the probability of getting exactly 1 Air Strike. Now, when you're looking at the possibility of getting 2 Air Strikes, you have to look at how many different possible combinations can result in 2 Air Strikes. You can have A and B come up positive, or you can have AC come up positive, or AD, or BC, or BD, or CD. That's six possibilities, and is modeled by (4 Choose 2). The formula you were using (n/r) didn't give us 6, it gave us 2, which is where the discrepancy was coming from. Really, though, the way that I did the math was much more simple and elegant. Since we're only looking at the odds of AT LEAST one positive, we're really only interested in the probability of NOT getting four negatives. Therefore, p(Positive) = 1  p(Negative)... so just figure out p(Negative). Using the binomial formula you provided, p(Negative) = (4 Choose 0) * (.10 ^ 0) * (.90 ^ 4). Since 4 Choose 0 = 1, and .10^0 = 1, then p(Negative) simplifies to (.90^4), and p(Positive) then becomes 1  (.9)^4. The formula for the rest of the killstreaks becomes: p(Positive) = 1  (1R)^4, where R = the probability that the care package returns the killstreak in question. Edit: This was actually pretty fun. It's been a long time since I've had a reason to dust off my old Statistics knowledge.



Post by bigslick on Nov 29, 2009 1:00:34 GMT 5
Ahhh, OK I understand now thanks for the clarification. I took statistics two years ago and got a C (big surprise huh?) so this was a nice refresher...glad I'm a SOC major.



Post by mw0swedeking on Nov 29, 2009 2:12:20 GMT 5
hey bigslick I'm looking into soc as a major... any insight?



Post by dale08 on Nov 29, 2009 9:16:08 GMT 5
I've had alot of people they say that they have gotten a Tact Nuke from a care package. Now looking at those number it seems impossible or is it some sort of glitch in the system?



Post by bigslick on Nov 29, 2009 12:13:03 GMT 5
I've had alot of people they say that they have gotten a Tact Nuke from a care package. Now looking at those number it seems impossible or is it some sort of glitch in the system? There's no glitch, those people are simply lying. It's more of a "thinking man's major" as opposed to a "practical major". A lot of the tests and paper prompts ask for ambiguous answers and require you to systematically support your argument (a lot of people prefer black and white answers like 2+2=4). Also, lots of reading and writing so if you struggle with reading comprehension or forming arguments well it may not be the major for you.



Post by imrlybord7 on Nov 29, 2009 14:19:00 GMT 5
bigslick, I recommend taking a math class at some point in the near future. The total obviously adds up to 400% (100 x 4). Please tell me you see something wrong with that. imrlybord7, I recommend taking a reading comprehension class and a "notbeingadoucheovertheinternet" class at some point in the near future. Since emergency air drop results in 4 care packages, the odds of getting at least one of any given item will total well over 100%. I don't see anything wrong with that. so the percent chances are correct No, they aren't, for the reason I already listed. Well, I just got wrecked. bigslick, I owe you an apology.



Post by chyros on Nov 29, 2009 20:00:59 GMT 5
Since emergency air drop results in 4 care packages, the odds of getting at least one of any given item will total well over 100%. I don't see anything wrong with that. Maybe I understand this wrong, but the chance of anything dropping can never be 100% or more, irrespective of the amount of crates dropped. Strictly speaking, you could play this game until your 100th birthday and NEVER get a UAV, for example.



Post by ssog on Nov 30, 2009 16:23:21 GMT 5
Since emergency air drop results in 4 care packages, the odds of getting at least one of any given item will total well over 100%. I don't see anything wrong with that. Maybe I understand this wrong, but the chance of anything dropping can never be 100% or more, irrespective of the amount of crates dropped. Strictly speaking, you could play this game until your 100th birthday and NEVER get a UAV, for example. You're understanding it wrong. The odds of getting at least 1 UAV + the odds of getting at least 1 counterUAV + the odds of getting at least 1 Predator + ... + the odds of getting at least one AC130 > 100%. None of those individual odds is greater than 100%, but the sum of all of the odds is greater than 100% (although not as great as 400%). Look at it this way you have a 100% chance of getting SOMETHING when you call in an emergency airdrop, right? And your odds of getting two different somethings are greater than 0%, right? So the sum of the odds of getting at least one of any given item is going to be greater than 100% the 100% odds of getting something in the first place, plus the greater than 0% odds of getting something else, too. Well, I just got wrecked. bigslick, I owe you an apology. Classy. :thumbsup:



Post by chyros on Nov 30, 2009 22:16:46 GMT 5
Maybe I understand this wrong, but the chance of anything dropping can never be 100% or more, irrespective of the amount of crates dropped. Strictly speaking, you could play this game until your 100th birthday and NEVER get a UAV, for example. You're understanding it wrong. The odds of getting at least 1 UAV + the odds of getting at least 1 counterUAV + the odds of getting at least 1 Predator + ... + the odds of getting at least one AC130 > 100%. None of those individual odds is greater than 100%, but the sum of all of the odds is greater than 100% (although not as great as 400%). Look at it this way you have a 100% chance of getting SOMETHING when you call in an emergency airdrop, right? And your odds of getting two different somethings are greater than 0%, right? So the sum of the odds of getting at least one of any given item is going to be greater than 100% the 100% odds of getting something in the first place, plus the greater than 0% odds of getting something else, too. Well, I just got wrecked. bigslick, I owe you an apology. Classy. :thumbsup: Ah, okay then .



Post by dchoi41 on Dec 1, 2009 1:01:17 GMT 5
Are there any extra rules about the emergency airdrop, like saying you can't get more than one of a kind? That would throw these numbers off.



Post by imrlybord7 on Dec 1, 2009 4:30:40 GMT 5
No. I've gotten 4 Counter UAVs before. AWESOME! /thumbs up

