
Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 11:06:08 GMT 5
The only thing I asked you up there, was if my math was wrong.
If it isn't, then I already answered what you got into in your 2nd paragragh. I already said hours ago....
"And the odds are 1 in 714 (I think)As I said, it's a rare occurrence. One that is unlikely, but I am not sure if it's statistically significant"
....so everything you said in your 2nd paragraph, is going on about something I never asked about. I already answered it, just asked for clarification if the math is correct.
As far as Bungie's practices, I've seen enough over the year from CoD developers to know that the companies obsess over tweaking balance issues. That doesn't necessarily mean they will be successful at doing so (they hardly ever are), or be successful at stopping glitches or other issues (see MW2 and BO1). But just because they aren't, doesn't mean they don't try.


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Post by mannon on Jan 13, 2015 11:19:51 GMT 5
I don't see how drop rates of the things are all that important. It's not like we can trade them. If anything allowing Xur to sell something highly desired makes the game more balanced by ensuring more players are able to achieve the same thing. It's RNG that unbalances things by randomly distributing loot to such a degree that I haven't had a decen't primary weapon that wasn't a hand cannon since before I hit level 20 and I managed to run VoG and got nothing but shards, energy, and this chatterwhite TShirt...



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 11:23:44 GMT 5
I don't see how drop rates of the things are all that important. It's not like we can trade them. If anything allowing Xur to sell something highly desired makes the game more balanced by ensuring more players are able to achieve the same thing. It's RNG that unbalances things by randomly distributing loot to such a degree that I haven't had a decen't primary weapon that wasn't a hand cannon since before I hit level 20 and I managed to run VoG and got nothing but shards, energy, and this chatterwhite TShirt... It's not important at this point. My original point was that I found the process a bit suspect, but my gut feelings about randomness were never based on anything Xur or anything else dropped. I just can't believe a company would allow it's product to be controlled by blind randomness. The Warlock armor stuff came up later, I looked it, and then said it looked strange. I did the math. Posted my thoughts on it. At this point of the thread, I don't even give a sh1t anymore about it. I was only curious to know if my math/stat calculations were correct. That's why I have been asking this (five times?) over the last few hours.


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 11:25:20 GMT 5
The only thing I asked you up there, was if my math was wrong. I'm gonna need some time on that one...it's been a while since my statistics and probability classes in college LOL. I need a refresher course!



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 11:28:51 GMT 5
The only thing I asked you up there, was if my math was wrong. I'm gonna need some time on that one...it's been a while since my statistics and probability classes in college LOL. I need a refresher course! Then how did you determine that your scenario has the same odds as what I presented? Just curious because I love stat stuff, probability, all of that. So curious how you derived your numbers. I came up with 1 in 200 chance of your scenario happening. The VoidFang situation I used, that did happen, it had a 1 in 714.


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Post by mannon on Jan 13, 2015 11:55:16 GMT 5
Because he was referring to sequence, not X number of item out of Y chances. Any sequence technically could occur and has the same odds as any other sequence.
As for the other, I never took statistics and I've been too busy to check your math. Doesn't mean I don't enjoy the conversation.


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 12:08:18 GMT 5
I'm gonna need some time on that one...it's been a while since my statistics and probability classes in college LOL. I need a refresher course! Then how did you determine that your scenario has the same odds as what I presented? Just curious because I love stat stuff, probability, all of that. So curious how you derived your numbers. I came up with 1 in 200 chance of your scenario happening. The VoidFang situation I used, that did happen, it had a 1 in 714. That one I can answer more easily, without any refresher courses, LOL. For simplicity's sake, let's assume that all 9 Warlock exotics have been available the whole time (when in reality there were only 6 for the first 13 weeks and 9 for the last 5). Here's two scenarios  one is the actual list from destinyxur.com, one is hypothetical: Week
 Actual Item  Hypothetical Item  1  Sunbreakers  Voidfang  2  Sunbreakers  Voidfang  3  Apotheosis  Voidfang  4  Sunbreakers  Voidfang  5  Voidfang  Voidfang  6  Nemesis  Voidfang  7  Voidfang  Voidfang  8  Voidfang  Voidfang  9  Sunbreakers  Voidfang  10  Voidfang  Voidfang  11  Voidfang  Voidfang  12  Voidfang  Voidfang  13  Nemesis  Voidfang  14  Voidfang  Voidfang  15  Claws  Voidfang  16  Claws  Voidfang  17  Starfire  Voidfang  18  Starfire  Voidfang 
Week 1: odds of Xur selling Sunbreakers are 1/9. Odds of selling Voidfang are also 1/9. Week 2: odds of Xur selling Sunbreakers are 1/9. Odds of selling Voidfang are also 1/9. Week 3: odds of Xur selling Apotheosis Veil are 1/9. Odds of selling Voidfang are also 1/9. Weeks 4  18: odds of Xur selling whatever item he actually sold are 1/9. Odds of selling Voidfang are also 1/9. Therefore, the odds of Xur selling any specific list of 18 items over 18 weeks, with each item assigned to a specific week, are exactly the same as any other specific combination. There is exactly one way for any specific combination to happen, the odds of which can be calculated as (1/9)^18 = an incomprehensibly small number (6.6625e^18, to be exact). This is a completely different and much simpler calculation than figuring the odds of, say, any combination of (5 Sunbreakers, 2 Skull, 3 HofPF, 3 Starfire, 3 Voidfang, 1 Claws, 1 Nemesis), or any combination including 7 Voidfangs occurring over 18 weeks without regard to which weeks Voidfang was sold. That's a calculation I need the refresher for! Somebody please correct me if I managed to Foxtrot something up here!



Post by thebb22 on Jan 13, 2015 12:22:58 GMT 5
iw5000....I tried to run the math to answer your question (the odds of Voidfang occuring 7 in 10 weeks), and I'm pretty sure I've got your answer. The odds are far, far worse than 1 in 714. It's more like 1 in 725,594 lol. Here's my math on that given that in any week there was a 1 in 6 chance of Voidfang being chosen other than that final week in which it was a 1 in 9 chance and it did in fact get selected. (C) marks a week it was chosen (NC) marks that was a week it wasn't chosen just to show why I used either 1/6 or 5/6. 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/9 = 125/90,699,264 or roughly 0.000001378 or approximately 1 in 725,594. (C) (NC) (C) (C) (NC) (C) (C) (C) (NC) (C)
Edited for mathematical calculator typo



Post by thebb22 on Jan 13, 2015 12:51:54 GMT 5
78125 / 78,364,164,096 = 1 / 1,003,061. That was the odds for Voidfang dropping exactly 7 times (no more, no less) in the first 14 weeks assuming there were 6 items the whole time, not 9 in the last week or two.


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Post by mannon on Jan 13, 2015 13:32:01 GMT 5
To make things simpler, I'm not going to worry about the 5 weeks of 1 in 9 odds. After all Voidfang only showed up once in those weeks anyway.
That means out of 13 weeks of 1 in 6 odds Voidfang showed up 6 times. That sounds pretty rare and I assume that it is. So let's have a look.
This may not be the most elegant way to do it, but here's what I figure. Out of 13 weeks we know we have voidfang 6 times. That leaves 7 more weeks. We don't care what the other weeks are as long as it's not Voidfang so each of those weeks has 5 possibles. So we have 1*1*1*1*1*1*5*5*5*5*5*5*5 possible solutions for 6 weeks of voidfang vs 6^13th power total possible outcomes.
I get 78,125 possible voidfang solutions in 13,060,694,016 possible outcomes or odds of 1 in 167,176.88. But wait... do we really care that it was voidfang in particular? Wouldn't any item appearing 6 times be as suspicious to us as any other item? So what if it could have been any of the items instead of just that one. Well then our odds are multiplied by 6 so I get 1 in 27,862.81. Still pretty unlikely, but not in the millions...
But I also capped it at exactly 6 times. What if that item appeared more than six times. Wouldn't that also be suspicious? If it falls on the suspicious side shouldn't I count those possible outcomes as well? If that's true then I need to add up all the outcomes that could give me 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and even the one single solution that could result in all 13 weeks being Voidfang, (97,656 by my math) and then multiply by the 6 different items, (585,936 possible solutions) and that gives me 1 in 22,290.31 odds of producing a 6 of the same item in 13 weeks or MORE suspicious outcome.
Well 1:22,290.31 isn't great odds. I wouldn't take that bet. On the other hand we're also only currently looking at one of the items Xur sells, and we could have seen this pattern in any of them... I'm not going to extrapolate the math further. My only point is the math is far from conclusive. It certainly looks suspicious, but then again so do a lot of sequences of decimals in Pi.
Either way I wouldn't be surprised. Bungie could leave this totally up to chance, and why not? They already leave a lot up to RNG. What difference does it make to them if half the population buys ballerhorn from Xur some random weekend? In a traditional MMO yes, you need to carefully watch drop rates. But that's because of the player economy, and because it can have far reaching effects you might not even think about. A sudden influx of a high end item displaces all the ones it replaces and on down the food chain, altering prices on a whole line of items as well as affecting items obtained from deconstructing them, or items used to upgrade them. It alters player behaviors as people hope to farm the over abundant item, in the process they overfarm other items obtained from the same quest/dungeon/mobs, and perhaps other items fall off as they are not participating in those events anymore. The whole thing is a huge messy spiderweb of consequences.
Destiny however... not that big a deal. If a lot of them get out there then well... more players have them. I guess it maybe makes CE easier fro a larger number of people, but enough people already have it for the potential OPness to be an issue, and simply managing the drop rate is not a solution. I understand that the theory is that Bungie is afrid to nerf so they are holding back the drop rate in lieu of a nerf and the whole criticism is that it isn't a good way of doing things. But still... I don't see the point. I wouldn't be surprised if it DOES have a lower drop rate because it is a powerful weapon, not that we've proven it has or hasn't. But I think we go too far when reading into it that the intent is to somehow nerf without nerfing because Bungie's afraid to nerf...
Honestly I doubt they're afraid to nerf. Sure a lot of people would go all crybaby over it, but they already do anyway over 100 things every week. It's not like nerfing it would be the end of Destiny. I don't pretend to know what goes on behind closed doors at Bungie, and I think the community is a little too obsessed about it. I just play the game... that's it.


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 13:59:31 GMT 5
Thank you guys for figuring that math out. Glad I didn't have to do it, although it's actually a lot easier than I was expecting. So somewhere between 1 in 22,000 or so and 1 in 1.27 million, depending on your exact parameters. For the sake of comparison: Odds of dying due to assault by firearm in a given year  1 in 24,342. Odds of dying due to pain reliever overdose/adverse reaction in a given year  1 in 1.29 million. That stuff happens every day and nobody thinks twice about it. Source: www.riskcomm.com/visualaids/riskscale/datasources.php


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Post by mannon on Jan 13, 2015 14:16:42 GMT 5
Actually I'm not totally sure I put all the possible solutions together right now that I think about it. It's probably easier to just include all solutions that also include at least 6 weeks of 1 item, whether that item is repeated or not. I think the way I tried to account for that actually lowballed it.
Total possible solutions with 6 or more occurrences of a single item in a 1:6 scenario should be 6^7th? (1*1*1*1*1*1*6*6*6*6*6*6*6=279,936) With 6 possible scenarios due to there being six items that's 1,679,616 solutions or 1 in 7,776.00 odds. Odds of it happening in at least one out of the three classes go up even more.
Or my math's all wrong. ;3



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 14:21:04 GMT 5
iw5000....I tried to run the math to answer your question (the odds of Voidfang occuring 7 in 10 weeks), and I'm pretty sure I've got your answer. The odds are far, far worse than 1 in 714. It's more like 1 in 1.27 million lol. It appears we are framing the probability in two different ways. I ran the odds for 7 drops in 17 weeks (total no. of Xur weekends I had data) This would be a binomial probability problem. So that said, that gives me the 1 in 714. But.....you are running it for a stretch of time of 10 weeks. Picking a segment of Xur's history, the stretch were VoidFangs dropped seven times over 10 weeks. Yes, running it out that way, I am coming up with these numbers/odds.... I come up with 0.999959547072649 odds not happening or 0.000041 for it happening or 0.0041% I am coming up with 1 in 24,390. By any stretch of the imagination, this time period would seem to indicate something other than luck. Question. I am seeing the odds as 1 in 8 every week. 12.5% chance. Not sure how you got 1 in 6? I thought there were eight pieces of potential armor that could drop each week. VoidFangs having the 1 in 8 odds. Not quite following that. But that easily could be me. I think your math isn't quite following the correct route. Again, not sure.


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 14:26:47 GMT 5
There were 6 warlock exotics available when the game came out. 1 in 6 odds. DLC added 3 more warlock exotics, so postDLC the odds are 1 in 9.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 14:29:59 GMT 5
There were 6 warlock exotics available when the game came out. 1 in 6 odds. DLC added 3 more warlock exotics, so postDLC the odds are 1 in 9. Oh ok. I am coming up with 0.000267 then. 0.026%. That's 1 in 3,846 odds of getting VoidFangs to drop 7 times in ten consecutive weeks. Kind of sketchy. Makes me still sort of stand by that results as something else being at play, other than random luck. But again, I am biased here. I think Bungie meddles when it's in their own interest. They'll say 'all random 24/7", at least until they want a different result. But anyways, hard to say just looking at this as an isolated test.


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 14:34:49 GMT 5
There were 6 warlock exotics available when the game came out. 1 in 6 odds. DLC added 3 more warlock exotics, so postDLC the odds are 1 in 9. Oh ok. I am coming up with 0.000267 then. 0.026%. That's 1 in 3,846 odds of getting VoidFangs to drop 7 times in ten consecutive weeks. Kind of sketchy. Makes me still sort of stand by that results as something else being at play, other than random luck. But again, I am biased here. I think Bungie meddles when it's in their own interest. They'll say 'all random 24/7", at least until they want a different result. But anyways, hard to say just looking at this as an isolated test. Annual risk of dying at work for an agricultural worker: 1 in 3,425. Is that random luck, or do you want to claim that Bungie (God, aliens, whatever) tweaked the coding in the matrix to make that happen? Joking...kind of.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 14:43:22 GMT 5
Either way I wouldn't be surprised. Bungie could leave this totally up to chance, and why not? They already leave a lot up to RNG. What difference does it make to them if half the population buys ballerhorn from Xur some random weekend? It means a lot. Most all companies that get involved in FPS'er try to strive for balance. And Bungie also has the additional burden of obsessing over getting players to log hours. They've only dropped like a half dozen press releases with ridiculous detailed stats bragging about how many hours players play, doing this and that. To Bungie, it makes ALL the difference in the world ....in how fast you finish stuff, how easy or hard it is to get stuff done. Activision is breathing down their necks. Again, Destiny carefully tracks hours played per person. Per day. Per Week. Per mode. This is just my opinion, but I would venture an educated guess that they fear players getting everything they need. This will lower those stats. Is this a rational thought? Who knows. But there's no guarantee Bungie is thinking rationally on it, or that the higherups have their sh1t together. Sometimes people at the top, make bad decisions. See CoD, and all the boneheaded moves their top people have done over the years. True. But IMHO, it's much easier to slightly restrict the more OP weapons via Xur and loot drops, to restrict their numbers out in the Destiny populace. That's a far easier way to manage things, than to openly nerf. Same results, much less headache and crying.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 14:48:59 GMT 5
Oh ok. I am coming up with 0.000267 then. 0.026%. That's 1 in 3,846 odds of getting VoidFangs to drop 7 times in ten consecutive weeks. Kind of sketchy. Makes me still sort of stand by that results as something else being at play, other than random luck. But again, I am biased here. I think Bungie meddles when it's in their own interest. They'll say 'all random 24/7", at least until they want a different result. But anyways, hard to say just looking at this as an isolated test. Annual risk of dying at work for an agricultural worker: 1 in 3,425. Is that random luck, or do you want to claim that Bungie (God, aliens, whatever) tweaked the coding in the matrix to make that happen? Joking...kind of. That's a silly point you are making, seeing how you said you aren't really joking. Everything depends on framing. There is a 0.0% chance of me dying due to agricultural work.... if I don't do Agricultural work. There is a 0.0% risk of me dying on a commercial airliner, if i don't fly. The same framing applies here to this game. These odds aren't THAT out of the ordinary, but...taken in the context that we are talking about an alternate hypothesis, that hinges upon a gaming company, messing with it's own game via updates, it's an entirely different picture. Gaming developers update and manage their games. Bungie is no different. They openly and routinely add hotfixes and other updates, even down to buffing/nerfing guns, as well openly admit to micromanaging/checking population numbers like hours played and success rates on parts of the game. Again (repeating), this alternate hypothesis that depends on them tweaking drop rates to maintain gun population numbers is perfectly reasonable. Come on, there's no need for wise cracks/pot shots with the God/aliens stuff, trying to paint me as some nutball retard here.... as it would be perfectly acceptable for Bungie to claim it's game is on random loot system, maybe even actually be doing it on random...but if they see population stats skewing to far out of their acceptable range, they go in and micromanage their own drop settings. * and note. I am not in the same camp with many of those people who scream that Bungie is deliberately messing with drops, to fvck with people. I am not on that ship.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 14:57:12 GMT 5
Actually I'm not totally sure I put all the possible solutions together right now that I think about it. It's probably easier to just include all solutions that also include at least 6 weeks of 1 item, whether that item is repeated or not. I think the way I tried to account for that actually lowballed it. Total possible solutions with 6 or more occurrences of a single item in a 1:6 scenario should be 6^7th? (1*1*1*1*1*1*6*6*6*6*6*6*6=279,936) With 6 possible scenarios due to there being six items that's 1,679,616 solutions or 1 in 7,776.00 odds. Odds of it happening in at least one out of the three classes go up even more. Or my math's all wrong. ;3 I don't know. That was my original question hours ago, ...how to figure out the math here. I enjoy probability stuff, so this intrigued me. I am fairly certain the above is a binomial probability question. The formulas are a bit tricky with it, and i don't think it follows the above route.


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 14:59:14 GMT 5
It's absolutely a silly point, and I am mostly joking. I never said your hypothesis wasn't reasonable. In fact I agree that your hypothesis is extremely reasonable, and is likely true to at least some extent. I'm just saying there's absolutely no real evidence to show that Bungie has gone out of their way to mess with any drop rates, and all the message board hubbub, this thread included, is pointless speculation. Everything is just as explainable as pure random luck of the draw. The only reasons I keep throwing out goofy odds are because it makes me chuckle a little, I'm trying to keep the thread fun instead of argumentative (which I've apparently failed at), and it gives some kind of context for how likely things are to occur. Most people dismiss 1 in 4000 or so odds as something that can't ever happen, when in reality it happens all the time. I live in a pretty farmheavy area, so I picked that one out because it was close to the number you came up with. Sorry it isn't relevant to you. So...Nightfalls later??? We need to get you a Gjallarhorn, and I need an Obsidian Mind!



Post by thebb22 on Jan 13, 2015 15:08:08 GMT 5
Odds of Voidfang dropping are 1 in 6...and for the sake of simplicity this time I'll keep it the same throughout, tossing out the fact that in week 13 or whenever they added 3 more Warlock pieces.
So for it to drop 7 times (or more) in 10 weeks we have this:
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 6/6 * 6/6 * 6/6 The last three weeks can be completely thrown aside because it doesn't matter what drops. And it doesn't matter which order you put these in. There just have to be 7 instances in which Voidfang drops. So this becomes 1/6^7 (One over six to the seventh power) = 1 in 279,936 or 0.00000357
This same equation applies to it dropping 7 times (or more) in 17 weeks. The odds aren't any different.
However, if you want to know the odds of Voidfang dropping EXACTLY 7 times in 17 weeks then the equation changes to this:
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 5^10/6^17 = 9,765,625/16,926,659,444,736 = 1/1,733,290 or 0.0000005769



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 15:28:42 GMT 5
Odds of Voidfang dropping are 1 in 6...and for the sake of simplicity this time I'll keep it the same throughout, tossing out the fact that in week 13 or whenever they added 3 more Warlock pieces. So for it to drop 7 times (or more) in 10 weeks we have this: 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 6/6 * 6/6 * 6/6 The last three weeks can be completely thrown aside because it doesn't matter what drops. And it doesn't matter which order you put these in. There just have to be 7 instances in which Voidfang drops. So this becomes 1/6^7 (One over six to the seventh power) = 1 in 279,936 or 0.00000357 This same equation applies to it dropping 7 times (or more) in 17 weeks. The odds aren't any different. However, if you want to know the odds of Voidfang dropping EXACTLY 7 times in 17 weeks then the equation changes to this: 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 5^10/6^17 = 9,765,625/16,926,659,444,736 = 1/1,733,290 or 0.0000005769 Are you running that as a cumulative binomial probability?



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 15:38:24 GMT 5
I don't think you multiple 1/6 x 1/6 x ..... to get your answer. I think you multiply probabilities like that when calculating events that are dependent upon each other. For example. What are the odds of flipping a coin four times, and getting four straight heads. For this, yes, you multiply. You take 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 or 1/2 y4, giving an answer of 6.25% This type of probability involves each 'event' in the probability finding being dependent upon each other. You need all four to happen to find your odds.
With the above question, odds of VoidFangs dropping 7 times over 10 weeks....the events are independent. The calculation assumes each event/per week is independent of each other (as it should be with how we framed it), and each event has no bearing on the others. What happens in week one, is completely (odds wise) independent of what happens in week two. I am pretty sure that is a binomial probability issue, so then looking for a number of successes/failures in a sequence of 'n' independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with probability 'p'. The yes/no being did VoidFang drop. If 'yes', then add them up. n=10 (weeks/tests), p=.1667 (probability of a VoidF drop) When you set up probability findings for that, the formula looks different*
* at least i think it does
* * i will apologize again for nerding the thread out with this math stuff, but i find it interesting.



Post by thebb22 on Jan 13, 2015 15:55:19 GMT 5
Not exactly sure of all the details of a cumulative binomial probability so probably not.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 16:00:08 GMT 5
Not exactly sure of all the details of a cumulative binomial probability so probably not. I think the probability calculation you did, would be this... "What are the odds of the VoidFang dropping seven straight weeks" That would be 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6....{7} = 0.00000357 = 1 in 279,936 The odds we are looking for, the conditions aren't quite as strict. The VoidFang doesn't have to drop seven straight weeks. It only has to drop seven times, in ANY of the ten weeks. It doesn't have to be in order. Running the odds that way, drastically reduces them to 1 in 3,745.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 16:10:08 GMT 5
Here's another question.
When did this new DCL equipment armor hit? Like for Warlocks, what is it? Is the new stuff the Claws of Akamhara and the Starfire Protocol?
So then the other six pieces, are the Voidfang, LightBeyond, SunBreakers, Apotheosis Veil, Heart of Praxic Fire and Skull of Akamhara?


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 16:12:43 GMT 5
DLC drop would have been the Tuesday before week 14. So DLC armor has been available for 5 weeks. NonDLC stuff has been available for 18 weeks.



Post by thebb22 on Jan 13, 2015 16:13:20 GMT 5
Here's another question. When did this new DCL equipment armor hit? Like for Warlocks, what is it? destinyexotics.com/Any item with a little diamond with an I in it in the top right corner is a new item. This all came out the day of the DLC which I believe was either week 13 or 14.



Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 16:28:52 GMT 5
Oh ok. I never actually looked at this stuff that closely.
So let me get this straight. The StarFire, Obsidian Mind and Claws (for the Warlock), those become available after the 129 DLC week. More than likely, Bungie would have had alreadyavailable armor in Xur's rotation for Friday early am (4?), due to downloads and other time delays. Wouldn't be able to get the gear into Xur by Friday. So it would be pushed off to week 15.
Isn't it kind of a coincidence, that since the DLC drop, all four of Xur's Warlock offerings (Weeks 15, 16, 17, 18) have been the new gear? Is this just pure random generator coding, that just happened to drop ONLY the new gear in the past four weeks? Coincidence? Or Bungie planned out Xur, tweaked him, to ensure the new gear got out to the populace?


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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 16:42:48 GMT 5
Oh ok. I never actually looked at this stuff that closely. So let me get this straight. The StarFire, Obsidian Mind and Claws (for the Warlock), those become available after the 129 DLC week. More than likely, Bungie would have had alreadyavailable armor in Xur's rotation for Friday early am (4?), due to downloads and other time delays. Wouldn't be able to get the gear into Xur by Friday. So it would be pushed off to week 15. Isn't it kind of a coincidence, that since the DLC drop, all four of Xur's Warlock offerings (Weeks 15, 16, 17, 18) have been the new gear? Is this just pure random generator coding, that just happened to drop ONLY the new gear in the past four weeks? Coincidence? Or Bungie planned out Xur, tweaked him, to ensure the new gear got out to the populace? They did get DLC gear into Xur's inventory for week 14  Titans could buy Ruin Wings that week  so your theory there is out. Is it kind of a coincidence that Xur's had Warlock DLC gear 4 straight weeks? Sure. On the other hand, the poor Hunters among us have only had 1 DLC item available in 5 weeks. So what's the conclusion there? Bungie hates Hunters and doesn't want them to have access to DLC gear? I don't see how that makes any sense. Sorry. Overall, there have been 15 available armor selections (5 weeks x 3 classes = 15) since the DLC dropped and 8 of those 15 have been DLC gear. Only 1/3 of the total exotic armors are DLC, so 5/15 would be more expected, but I don't think 8/15 is really out of line by any stretch.

