Proof that Halo 4 is dying

[Broadband]

www.halocharts.com/2012/chart/dailypeakpopulation/all

Enough said. This link here proves that Halo 4's population is dying at an alarming rate. Not even Reach died this quickly, and Halo 3 still had ~200,000 players in 2009, and that was with FEWER Xbox Live subscribers.

Of course Black Ops 2 came out on November 13, hence the big drop in population. Even in spite of that though, the population has NEVER been as high as it was the day after BO2's release.

Bear in mind, these are daily PEAK populations, not daily lows.

[MoopusMaximus]

Christmas will surely add more.

Off-Topic: How come we're the only ones that post about H4 here? Didn't Mousey and Shinybluething play it?

[Broadband]

You'll probably see a relatively large surge but it will thin out and gradually decrease some more.

The fact is, this isn't Halo. It's got Halo in its name, sure, but at its core it is NOT Halo. It is a disgrace in so many aspects. The thing that baffles me the most is 343i obviously implemented all these features from CoD (yes, I know some aren't originally from CoD but obviously 343i looked to CoD for inspiration) to try and get more casuals playing, but at the end of the day all that results in is Halo veterans leaving due to all the unnecessary changes, and casuals playing CoD instead of a CoD-wannabe.

[MoopusMaximus]

Look at my Fileshare.

No Sprint.
No Instaspawn.
4-shot BR.

It rocks.

[wittyscorpion]

I play Halo4 and BO2 and enjoy both. My original plan was to play the two back and forth (Halo when solo, BO2 with friends) but that did not pan out as I have not found time to go back to play Halo since BO2 came out.

For me personally the primary reason is prestiging. BO2 made it almost mandatory to prestige 11 times (in order to unlock everything), and that sucked out all of my limited play time.

Another replay factor BO2 introduced is the pursuit of diamond camo. The CoD already has the advantage of weapon variety and this effectively pushes players to spend huge amount of time to play each.

It is my speculation that had it been a competition of Halo4 vs. MW3, a lot more players who bought both would give Halo4 plenty of play time. At least for me: I would be playing both back and forth as soon as I complete prestige 0 and have everything unlocked.

Halo4 did introduce "specialization" as an attempt for player retention. However, its main problem is serious lack of maps. On the surface it has 10 maps (pre DLC), not too bad against BO2's 15 maps, but that has to be divided into categories by size: small, medium, large. I for one enjoy playing Infinity Slayer on small maps the most, so I only get to play with 5 maps. Also, due to the games' nature H4 maps tend to be much more straight forward than BO2 maps (not a bad thing but it does reduce novelty value). This, plus the lack of weapon variety (everybody uses DMR, not necessarily a bad thing either, but also reduces novelty value)., cause the game to become repetitive.

Had 343i implemented visible skill ratings, H4 would have been much more re-playable. However, that was an afterthought and they are still busy working on it, while on the other hand BO2 introduced League Play from day 1. At least for me, after reaching prestige master I plan to try out League Play. If that proves to be competitive and fun, it would be another factor to keep me playing.

[eLantern]

I disagree Broadband... this doesn't prove Halo is "dying" it only proves that... (1) CoD still reigns supreme, and (2) that there are most likely issues that have caused players to gradually spend less time enjoying the game. There's certainly not enough evidence here to suggest that the game is "dying" or that 343i's has "killed" Halo. Gezz.

I do think 343i's greatest goof has been their decision making in regards to the playlists and available maps (I have no idea why the Forge maps are not being utilized in MM). It's easy for players to get bored by the hugely restrictive playlists and limited maps. No Big Team Objective games, no Classic Slayer variants, having to wait for Snipers to return, no Double Team, no Multi-team, no standard Slayer FFA, plus on average only 3-4 maps to choose from per each playlists cause huge amounts of unnecessary repetition in playing gametypes and on maps that you can get tired of pretty quickly. Now, the fact that the new DLC playlist incorporates several gametypes under one playlist demonstrates that offering a playlist with multiple types of gametypes and/or variants isn't something that would be impossible for 343i's War Games system to handle, so why not offer more variety? It's simply stupid decision making on 343i's part in regards to this aspect that I believe is having the greatest effect in seeing a drop in online population.

Another area that I also think is having a noticeable effect on the population is 343i's limited options in regards to custom games and forge. A significant portion of Halo's traditional consumer base have come to expect certain allowances and options in customizing their enjoyment with the most current Halo titles, but Halo 4 has failed pretty miserably in meeting those expectations. A Title Update has been rumored to address several of Halo 4's short comings in these areas, but only 343i knows for sure. I believe that a large part of the community population which would be quite active with Halo 4's custom games and forge are hardly existent and have greatly dwindled it's overall population numbers, but with a proper Title Update that would bring back a lot of the missing features will see the game's overall population numbers improve noticeably.

On a much lesser level, I do agree that there's a portion of the community that is so greatly annoyed by some of the weapon balancing and overall multiplayer design decisions that the amount of time these people can stand playing the game is limited or becoming non-existent. I also think that while this category is broad enough to incorporate a large portion of the community the levels of reaction are quite diverse and that the most drastic reactions are quite small. The people who think 343i's Halo game is a complete failure, that it's broken and unplayable, that it isn't even worth owning, let alone playing is a very small amount, but they remain as one of the most outspoken and passionate groups of the community so they're heard from quite often. These are the people who typically think they know exactly what a Halo game should be and that any deviation from their opinion of a Halo game is sacrilege to the Halo name. I think, in general, these people will never be pleased with anything other than a carbon copy of the past games, but with a graphical overhaul. Hey, Halo: Anniversary happened, so who knows what the future holds.

[wittyscorpion]

With all said above: I still think H4 is a great game and plan to go back to it eventually. I disagree that it is a CoD wanna-be because IMHO at its core it is still "Halo".

Halo has a much longer development cycle so there will be another 2-3 years until H5 came out. I am not in a hurry to play it to death right after its release, and plan to enjoy it for the long haul.

Hopefully 343i can add better DLC maps (did not have chance to play the first one as I am on vacation without access to XBox), looks like they only managed to add 1 small map which is disappointing), more free Forge maps with high quality, and a robust skill system. At least for me that's good enough for me to enjoy it.

On the flip side: BO2 went all out in terms of size-able innovations out of the CoD signature. It will be interesting to see whether the franchise can manage to pull out more tricks to keep (or even grow) the community's engagement level. If the next title fails miserably for some reason, Halo4 can be a great alternative.

[Broadband]

Dec 19, 2012 18:43:17 GMT -5 eLantern said:

I disagree Broadband... this doesn't prove Halo is "dying" it only proves that... (1) CoD still reigns supreme, and (2) that there are most likely issues that have caused players to gradually spend less time enjoying the game. There's certainly not enough evidence here to suggest that the game is "dying" or that 343i's has "killed" Halo. Gezz.

I do think 343i's greatest goof has been their decision making in regards to the playlists and available maps (I have no idea why the Forge maps are not being utilized in MM). It's easy for players to get bored by the hugely restrictive playlists and limited maps. No Big Team Objective games, no Classic Slayer variants, having to wait for Snipers to return, no Double Team, no Multi-team, no standard Slayer FFA, plus on average only 3-4 maps to choose from per each playlists cause huge amounts of unnecessary repetition in playing gametypes and on maps that you can get tired of pretty quickly. Now, the fact that the new DLC playlist incorporates several gametypes under one playlist demonstrates that offering a playlist with multiple types of gametypes and/or variants isn't something that would be impossible for 343i's War Games system to handle, so why not offer more variety? It's simply stupid decision making on 343i's part in regards to this aspect that I believe is having the greatest effect in seeing a drop in online population.

Another area that I also think is having a noticeable effect on the population is 343i's limited options in regards to custom games and forge. A significant portion of Halo's traditional consumer base have come to expect certain allowances and options in customizing their enjoyment with the most current Halo titles, but Halo 4 has failed pretty miserably in meeting those expectations. A Title Update has been rumored to address several of Halo 4's short comings in these areas, but only 343i knows for sure. I believe that a large part of the community population which would be quite active with Halo 4's custom games and forge are hardly existent and have greatly dwindled it's overall population numbers, but with a proper Title Update that would bring back a lot of the missing features will see the game's overall population numbers improve noticeably.

On a much lesser level, I do agree that there's a portion of the community that is so greatly annoyed by some of the weapon balancing and overall multiplayer design decisions that the amount of time these people can stand playing the game is limited or becoming non-existent. I also think that while this category is broad enough to incorporate a large portion of the community the levels of reaction are quite diverse and that the most drastic reactions are quite small. The people who think 343i's Halo game is a complete failure, that it's broken and unplayable, that it isn't even worth owning, let alone playing is a very small amount, but they remain as one of the most outspoken and passionate groups of the community so they're heard from quite often. These are the people who typically think they know exactly what a Halo game should be and that any deviation from their opinion of a Halo game is sacrilege to the Halo name. I think, in general, these people will never be pleased with anything other than a carbon copy of the past games, but with a graphical overhaul. Hey, Halo: Anniversary happened, so who knows what the future holds.

The proof is in the pudding. The numbers are going down very quickly. If you want a real shock, try comparing any point on the graph after November 13th to another point one week prior. The population is dying, and it's dying quite quickly.

You're right on the money for those points you made.. The reasons you mentioned are certainly among the main reasons I have for not playing Halo 4. Too many big maps (and the most recent map pack was 90% big maps, WHY), lack of playlists, lack of custom game options, and neutered Forge. Seriously, how can you downgrade from a past game (Halo: Reach)? It's like they TRIED to make Forge worse. What gets me the most is the lack of Rumble Pit... WTF it's one of the most simple game modes out there! Regicide is NOT an acceptable substitute.

I can't find it, but I know I saw a transcript of an interview with someone at 343i and when he was asked about the lackluster custom game options, his (the 343i guy) reply made it sound like he thought there was nothing wrong with the options. Therefore, this being addressed in the title update is highly unlikely. It was on the Halo Waypoint forums.

In general even after all is said and done, you still have a craptastic game. File Share doesn't work, the DMR is OP (prove me wrong, you can't), instant respawn, armor abilities, Foxtrotting PERKS, ordinance drops, and the Boltshot make this a really terrible game. I had hope in 343i, but they will not get another dime from me, unless the next map pack is nothing but small, arena style maps with no vehicles.

[Broadband]

Dec 19, 2012 18:49:25 GMT -5 wittyscorpion said:

With all said above: I still think H4 is a great game and plan to go back to it eventually. I disagree that it is a CoD wanna-be because IMHO at its core it is still "Halo".

Halo has a much longer development cycle so there will be another 2-3 years until H5 came out. I am not in a hurry to play it to death right after its release, and plan to enjoy it for the long haul.

Hopefully 343i can add better DLC maps (did not have chance to play the first one as I am on vacation without access to XBox), looks like they only managed to add 1 small map which is disappointing), more free Forge maps with high quality, and a robust skill system. At least for me that's good enough for me to enjoy it.

On the flip side: BO2 went all out in terms of size-able innovations out of the CoD signature. It will be interesting to see whether the franchise can manage to pull out more tricks to keep (or even grow) the community's engagement level. If the next title fails miserably for some reason, Halo4 can be a great alternative.

Black Ops 2 is evolution, Halo 4 is devolution. Simple as that.

[Deleted]

I wish the Halo 2 servers were never shut down....

[eLantern]

Dec 19, 2012 21:45:25 GMT -5 Broadband said:

The numbers are going down very quickly. If you want a real shock, try comparing any point on the graph after November 13th to another point one week prior. The population is dying, and it's dying quite quickly.

Ehhh... most games suffer a similar trend after release. Big spike that then tapers off before settling within a given tolerance with a slow general decline over the game's expanded lifetime. Again, I don't think the so-called proof is in the pudding as you suggest that the game is dying. I do think that the numbers tapered off quicker than hoped by 343i and most players considering the initial expectations, but I mentioned why I thought that was... in my previous post.

The hardest thing 343i faces now is people's first impressions. Even if they patched-up some of the weapons, forge, custom game options, playlist ideas, and introduce off-line gametype rankings, plus include their forge maps into matchmaking, I think they've hurt themselves in a long-term outlook in the eyes of many. I have to wonder what kind of effect that will have on future title releases by them as well as toward seeing Halo 4's population try to get back to its release numbers... though in all honestly no game probably ever gets back to their release numbers, so a more realist would hope to see numbers spike back up some and hope to maintain that spike with a very needed title update.

In general even after all is said and done, you still have a craptastic game. File Share doesn't work, the DMR is OP (prove me wrong, you can't), instant respawn, armor abilities, Foxtrotting PERKS, ordinance drops, and the Boltshot make this a really terrible game. I had hope in 343i, but they will not get another dime from me, unless the next map pack is nothing but small, arena style maps with no vehicles.

I think this is where we differ quite a bit. After all is said and done, I still think Halo 4 is a pretty fantastic game, but I can admit it has some glaring issues that really need to be addressed by 343i ASAP.

Yes, the File Share doesn't work as intended, but I've read that that is being addressed.

I disagree that the DMR is vastly overpowered as so many insist, but I do agree that it has the best overall capability which lets it truly outshine the overall usefulness of the other precision loadout weapons. The others have their small niche or roles that they play, but the DMR can compete with them in all of their niches and roles while also being superior at the longer distances due to its incredible accuracy advantage. The DMR certainly should receive addressing in a weapon balancing update, but it's not grossly overpowered. Personally, I think the best decision would be to buff the weapon and turn it into a Power Weapon.

I don't see anything wrong with Halo 4 having Instant Respawn in general, but custom games should certainly have a working option to control its use in every gametype.

I don't have any issues with 343i's decision to include Armor Abilities in Halo 4, but that doesn't mean that I don't think there's a better way of implementing them into the general game play. Personally, I'd like to see the Armor Abilities treated more like equipment was in Halo 3, in that you had to pick them up. In Halo 4, that would mean that they'd have to appear through Ordinance Drops. I also think they should have been given a set amount of energy that would get depleted through use, eventually ending it's use.

I have no issues at all with the Armor Permutations or Perks. I think they're pretty fair for the most part and offer interesting choices and options for players and their gameplay preferences.

I love the concept of the ordinance drops in Halo 4, but I don't think its execution was the best. I could get into all the things I'd prefer to see done differently in regards to them, but it would take some time to detail it all out.

Yes, I completely agree that the Bolt Shot doesn't properly fit it's role within the game. It's currently way to powerful for what it is suppose to represent as a secondary weapon.

I didn't really mind the 3 maps in the map pack, but I was disappointed in only receiving 3 maps for the cost. We should have gotten 5 for that price, plus because the game desperately needs additional maps and since the Forge maps for whatever reason aren't being included, more then 3 was something they should have offered.

[Broadband]

Wow, Halo 4 has dipped below 100,000 players now.

[Z3R0FLAME]

COD 4 has under 2,000 per day, and I can still play it just fine.

[Broadband]

That's not my point. My point was with the population decreasing this quickly, surely it's indicative of the quality of the game? Because a good game has lasting appeal and doesn't have its population decrease at such a rapid rate.

[MoopusMaximus]

I really do think that this because of the lack of maps. They really need to add Forge maps.

[Broadband]

There's more to it than that. This game has some glaring issues that still haven't been fixed yet (broken File Share, for starters). Then there's the other stuff that isn't necessarily gamebreaking, but rather very questionable design choices on 343i's part, stuff that will never be fixed/changed (ordinance drops, create a class, armor abilities). This isn't Halo 4, it's Reach 2.

[wittyscorpion]

Halo4 population has come back above 100,000, this is probably going to be the basline level for this game.

I think that people who enjoy the core appeal of Halo (i.e. the focus on face-off gun skill) and still play it after novelty wears off are going to play it for the long run. It's not like there is any other serious competitions for them to divert to (these players hate CoD games and CoD wanna bes).

Lack of map is the main concern for retention of these players.

[Broadband]

It's already on a steady decline and I wouldn't be surprised if by the month's end the population drops below 100,000.

If they hate CoD-wannabes then why would they play Reach 2... I mean Halo 4?

[Broadband]

Jan 6, 2013 17:25:14 GMT -5 Broadband said:

It's already on a steady decline and I wouldn't be surprised if by the month's end the population drops below 100,000.

If they hate CoD-wannabes then why would they play Reach 2... I mean Halo 4?

Damn, I nailed that one. I had hoped I wasn't right, but sadly I was. This game is dying faster than Reach... this is really sad to see.