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Post by linkinito on Mar 18, 2015 20:28:05 GMT -5
The data comes from 8 sources: - TmarTn (230) - Ali-A (199) - Soo Superior (157) - Optic Nadeshot (133) - Optic Midnite (131) - PrestigeIsKey (124) - UnknownPlayer (91) - Chaosxsilencer (66) It contains 11 variables: an ID for each Advanced Supply Drop, the number of the item, the rarity of the item, the item itself, its variant, type variables, and the source. Everything has been entered by hand (over 10 hours of pure data writing). Sample size of 1131 Advanced Supply Drops, and thus, 3393 items. Which is largely enough for any statistical analysis.
Here's some little facts about all these openings: - Every Advanced Supply Drop contains, as promised, 3 items, at least one being a weapon, and at least one item with Professional or Elite rarity. And none of them contains any reinforcement. - You will never find any Enlisted Boots or Gloves in an Advanced Supply Drop. - The rarity repartition is following this law: Type \ Rarity
| Enlisted | Professional | Elite | Overall
| Gear
| 30.65% (1040)
| 23.05% (782)
| 11.55% (392)
| 65.25% (2214)
| Weapon
| 15.21% (516)
| 14.21% (482)
| 5.33% (181)
| 34.75% (1179)
| Overall
| 45.86% (1556)
| 37.25% (1264)
| 16.89% (573)
| 100.00% (3393)
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Type \ Rarity
| Enlisted | Professional | Elite | Gear
| 46.97% | 35.32% | 17.71% | Weapon | 43.77% | 40.88% | 15.35% | Overall | 45.86% | 37.25% | 16.89%
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Obviously, you get more rare items than a normal Supply Drop due to the fact that each supply drop contains at least one Pro or Elite item. But still, it's not that far from a standard supply drop - the main advantage is you are guaranteed 3 items including a weapon. Also, you can see that the odds of getting Pro weapons are quite close to enlisted ones: as a matter of fact, there is actually more chance to get Pro weapons due to the "one guaranteed Pro item) and the fact that Launchers and Specials don't have any Professional variants. - Nearly every Advanced Supply Drop (96%) contain 2 Gear items and 1 weapon. There is a 4% chance (46 out of 1131) that a Supply Drop contains 2 weapons. There was also one supply drop (from PrestigeIsKey) that contained 3 weapons! Pretty sure that this is a 0.16% chance of happening (0.04 * 0.04). - The item position (1st item, 2nd item, 3rd item) have little influence on what you get overall. They are skewed on purpose however to guarantee you a Professional+ item and a Weapon (like if you get 2 Enlisted on your first 2 items, the 3rd one will be automatically a Professional or Elite item). - Here is the repartition of the contents by rarity.
| 0 Elite | 1 Elite | 2 Elite | 3 Elite | 0 Professional | 0% (0)
| 15.12% (171)
| 3.45% (39)
| 0.71% (8)
| 1 Professional | 33.95% (384)
| 16.80% (190)
| 2.21% (25)
| -
| 2 Professional | 19.19% (217)
| 5.31% (60)
| -
| -
| 3 Professional | 3.27% (37)
| -
| -
| -
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Basically, you have half the chance to get at least two items that are Pro or Elite. Having a triple Elite however is still quite rare. These following weapon variants have never been obtained a single time over 1131 Advanced Supply Drops : - AK12 R.I.P. (and the 2 Finger Traps were obtained by TmarTn alone) - ASM1 Strider - Atlas 45 Huckleberry (Ali-A got 3 out of the 4 Oath Breakers - the other one being obtained by Chaosxsilencer) - MAAWS Ignition - RW1 Typhoon (surprising, since it's an Enlisted variant) - XMG Bacon & Eggs (Mention to the ARX-160 Steel Bite which wasn't obtained by anyone until Optic Midnite, who got 3...) That doesn't mean they are not obtainable: they just slipped through the cracks. - Despite opening a ton of supply drops, none of the 8 Youtubers got a full set of White Out, KVA Believer or Royalty gear. - All 8 Youtubers had similar proportions in terms of rarity and items, with some little differences (Nadeshot was the one with the best proportion of weapons, getting many Advanced Supply Drops with 2 weapons). So much more can be extracted from the raw data, but one striking conclusion comes to my eyes: if you want to get the weapons you desire, spending few dollars will surely give you nothing. Spending on two dozen ASDs ($40!) will surely give you one or two good variants but honestly it's way better to count on classic Supply Drops and all the free Advanced Supply Drops you get by leveling up.
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Post by RainbowCrash on Mar 19, 2015 11:09:07 GMT -5
Glad I didn't shamelessly buy them
Condrey tweeted on st patty's day that he doubled the chance for getting elites in SDs, but i guess that didn't apply to the advanced ones, because I went ahead and opened the 13 I had saved from leveling up and got only 1 elite helmet out of 39 total items, and then in my 5-6 normal supply drops I earned that day I got an elite in almost every one of them...
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Post by thegentleman on Mar 19, 2015 18:35:31 GMT -5
While people say "RNG" over and over, and I get that the supply drops are random, I wonder if there's some additional weighting put on different guns. It seems like most people seem to get far more MK-14s and AMR-9 variants (myself included) than anything else. Perhaps these just stick in our minds because for the most part, we don't WANT them, but I've earned every MK-14 variant at least twice.
Before someone is quick to shout me down on this, consider how many other code snafus exist in the game. (IMR damage ranges, anyone?) It wouldn't surprise me if there's something somewhere that has screwed with a system that should in theory be perfectly random.
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Post by pupilofcod on Mar 20, 2015 2:34:20 GMT -5
Exactly. With SHG at the helm no code is safe. And Condrey's troll level is at least 2nd prestige...I just felt by his twitter that the St. Patty's SD buff wouldn't apply to ASDs. That was the only time I even considered buying them. Probably would have just ended up with some exclusive palette swapped clothes.
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Post by linkinito on Mar 20, 2015 6:50:47 GMT -5
While people say "RNG" over and over, and I get that the supply drops are random, I wonder if there's some additional weighting put on different guns. It seems like most people seem to get far more MK-14s and AMR-9 variants (myself included) than anything else. Perhaps these just stick in our minds because for the most part, we don't WANT them, but I've earned every MK-14 variant at least twice. Before someone is quick to shout me down on this, consider how many other code snafus exist in the game. (IMR damage ranges, anyone?) It wouldn't surprise me if there's something somewhere that has screwed with a system that should in theory be perfectly random. Bam. Class | Weapon | Enlisted | Professional | Elite | Total | Assault | AK12 | 21 | 22 | 2 | 45 |
| ARX-160 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 40 |
| Bal-27 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 40 |
| HBRa3 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 33 |
| IMR | 21 | 22 | 9 | 52 |
| MK14 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 39 | Assault | SUBTOTAL | 108 | 103 | 38 | 249 | SMG | AMR9 | 24 | 16 | 6 | 46 |
| ASM1 | 14 | 19 | 3 | 36 |
| KF5 | 16 | 26 | 4 | 46 |
| MP11 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 32 |
| SAC3 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 36 |
| SN6 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 33 | SMG | SUBTOTAL | 102 | 102 | 25 | 229 | Heavy | Ameli | 18 | 16 | 6 | 40 |
| EM1 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 42 |
| EPM3 | 9 | 19 | 7 | 35 |
| Pytaek | 16 | 16 | 6 | 38 |
| XMG | 23 | 16 | 3 | 42 | Heavy | SUBTOTAL | 89 | 81 | 27 | 197 | Pistol | Atlas 45 | 20 | 17 | 4 | 41 |
| MP443 Grach | 22 | 15 | 6 | 43 |
| PDW | 16 | 20 | 4 | 40 |
| RW1 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 38 | Pistol | SUBTOTAL | 72 | 70 | 20 | 162 | Sniper | Atlas 20mm | 17 | 15 | 9 | 41 |
| Lynx | 19 | 18 | 2 | 39 |
| MORS | 18 | 12 | 3 | 33 |
| NA-45 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 35 | Sniper | SUBTOTAL | 68 | 63 | 17 | 148 | Shotgun | Bulldog | 11 | 23 | 9 | 43 |
| S-12 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 46 |
| Tac-19 | 24 | 24 | 3 | 48 | Shotgun | SUBTOTAL | 51 | 64 | 22 | 137 | Special | Crossbow | 5 |
| 6 | 11 |
| Heavy Shield | 3 |
| 5 | 8 |
| MDL | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | Special | SUBTOTAL | 12 |
| 19 | 31 | Launcher | MAAWS | 3 |
| 1 | 4 |
| MAHEM | 4 |
| 7 | 11 |
| Stinger M7 | 6 |
| 5 | 11 | Launcher | SUBTOTAL | 13 |
| 13 | 26 | GENERAL | TOTAL | 515 | 483 | 181 | 1179 |
Results are... Surprising, to say the least. Didn't expect such equilibrium in categories. EDIT: There might be an equilibrium overall, but if I compare individual sources to the global distribution, they are definitely not following the same distribution.
I've compared the global distribution to every source distribution on weapon types only (Launchers and Specials excluded due to their rarity) with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and guess what - every distribution is different from the global distribution at a 99% confidence level. In other words: a player opening a supply drop doesn't have the same odds of getting a particular weapon type than another player. Some players will get lots of shotguns, others lots of sniper rifles, etc.EDIT 2: My methodology was wrong. I used the wrong test.That analysis can be brought in depth into each weapon type. For example, 33.33% (13/39) of TmarTn's heavy weapons were Amelis. For PrestigeisKey, 11.11% (3/27) of his Heavy weapons were Amelis. That's kind of a huge difference as overall, average Ameli drop rate in the Heavy type is 20.30%. I definitely need the player data of the 8 sources: K/D, W/L, SPM, time played, and of course, number of kills with every weapon alongside their respective K/D. My theory is you get your weapons based on your weapon stats which skew the base RNG considerably. Many players complain that they actually get too much Lynx or MK14s. As a personal experience, I recieved tons of snipers, including the 4 best variants for the MORS (Quick Bolt, Ransacker, The Doctor, Silver Bullet), but I'm definitely not a sniper player, quite the opposite actually. There are discrepancies between each player and they compensate over the very huge amount of players. Noobs and newcomers will have better chance to get good variants and popular weapons, and experienced players will have less chance to get their hands on a good variant, but they can count on time played to get their hands on good variants because they will open much more Supply Drops than the majority of CoD players. TL;DR: The way you play CoD might influence your weapon drops. But I'm pretty sure it does. Even though statistically, the hypothesis of independence is not rejected.
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Post by Julius_Alexander on Mar 25, 2015 17:44:18 GMT -5
so.... 1131 ASDs x $19.99 = $22,608.69.
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probaddie
True Bro
You're triggering my intelligence
Posts: 11,043
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Post by probaddie on Mar 25, 2015 17:52:25 GMT -5
so.... 1131 ASDs x $19.99 = $22,608.69. Between the eight players whom the OP drew his/her data from, yes.
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Post by linkinito on Mar 25, 2015 18:06:23 GMT -5
so.... 1131 ASDs x $19.99 = $22,608.69. One single ASD is $1.99, not $19.99. $19.99 is for a pack of 13 ASDs. ($9.99 for a pack of 6, $5.99 for a pack of 3). TmarTn spent $379.60 to get all 230 Advanced Supply Drops. So in average (for TmarTn) an ASD is $1.65. On the whole sample it might be closer to $1.55 though because not everyone bought the smaller packs. So roughly the total amount spent would be around $1,900. Separated between 8 players of course, but TmarTn is the one who spent the most (and he also donated $500 to the CoD Endowment). Youtubux.
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Post by Julius_Alexander on Mar 26, 2015 9:43:43 GMT -5
so.... 1131 ASDs x $19.99 = $22,608.69. One single ASD is $1.99, not $19.99. $19.99 is for a pack of 13 ASDs. ($9.99 for a pack of 6, $5.99 for a pack of 3). TmarTn spent $379.60 to get all 230 Advanced Supply Drops. So in average (for TmarTn) an ASD is $1.65. On the whole sample it might be closer to $1.55 though because not everyone bought the smaller packs. So roughly the total amount spent would be around $1,900. Separated between 8 players of course, but TmarTn is the one who spent the most (and he also donated $500 to the CoD Endowment). Youtubux.1131 / 13 = 87 * 19.99 = $1739.13. Seems more like an appropriate figure.
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Post by Megaqwerty on Mar 26, 2015 11:57:26 GMT -5
So you earn one advanced supply drop at levels 20, 30, 40, and upon prestiging. However, ASDs are not rewarded retroactively and still have not been implemented on Playstation consoles.
...this means that in theory, if you were grand master prestige, you would have lost out on 123 ASDs, worth approximately $189.
I personally am 18th prestige and thus have lost out on about 76 ASDs, worth about $117.
Thanks, Condrey. For nothing.
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Post by linkinito on Mar 26, 2015 13:32:02 GMT -5
So you earn one advanced supply drop at levels 20, 30, 40, and upon prestiging. However, ASDs are not rewarded retroactively and still have not been implemented on Playstation consoles. ...this means that in theory, if you were grand master prestige, you would have lost out on 123 ASDs, worth approximately $189. I personally am 18th prestige and thus have lost out on about 76 ASDs, worth about $117. Thanks, Condrey. For nothing. You actually have a compensation for your early dedication by having a "good" Elite Weapon at each Master Prestige. ASDs don't guarantee you good Elite weapons. One only guarantees you one weapon, and there's only a 15% chance it is an Elite variant. Considering not all Elite variants are good, out of the 76 ASDs you got, you might not have got a single good variant like you could have got 4. Also, according to the Supply Drop Stats found by AdvancedWarfare.co.uk, I've done a simulation on 40,000 Supply Drops with the same probabilities using a RNG to define the number of items in the Supply Drop, then the type and rarity of the item. Supply Drop
| Normal | Advanced | No weapon
| 38.3%
| 0%
| 1 weapon
| 43.4%
| 95.9% | 2 weapons
| 16.3%
| 4.0%
| 3 weapons
| 2.0%
| 0.1%
| Expected value
| 0.821
| 1.042
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Honestly, a normal Supply Drop is not that bad compared to an ASD. Of course, the expected value drops due to the non-zero chance to not get a single weapon and the fact that not every Supply Drops has 3 items, but still, it has a better chance to get 2 or 3 weapons than an Advanced Supply Drop!
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Post by scarpaccidawaco on Mar 29, 2015 20:08:56 GMT -5
Glad I didn't shamelessly buy them Condrey tweeted on st patty's day that he doubled the chance for getting elites in SDs, but i guess that didn't apply to the advanced ones, because I went ahead and opened the 13 I had saved from leveling up and got only 1 elite helmet out of 39 total items, and then in my 5-6 normal supply drops I earned that day I got an elite in almost every one of them... I got the XMG bacon and eggs from advanced supply drops. Add that
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Post by linkinito on Apr 4, 2015 6:09:01 GMT -5
Back to work, after realizing that I was using the wrong test (it's not K-S) and all my analysis above is false. Also, the problem with tests is they can only reject hypothesis, but we can't tell if the hypothesis is not rejected. So basically, the hypothesis of independence between the player and the weapons he recieves is mostly not rejected, but that doesn't mean it is independent. There is definitely some weighting factor, but we can't prove it. I've brought some graphs to have a more visual approach to this analysis. Also, the infographic SHG released today on Twitter contains a bit of information regarding Normal Supply Drops. Over a billion supply drops opened, we have 1.726734 items in average per crate, and a 15% Elite drop chance per item. If the second statistic was found accurate by AdvancedWarfare.co.uk, the first one was way off (2.21 avg instead of 1.726734 on a 1 billion sample size). So according to these numbers, I've came up with this graph: However, it's hard to find the good distribution in that range. NSDs with 1 item are not that rare but they aren't so common either. Only thing we know is we are pissed off when this contains a reinforcement or a piece of gear.
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Post by linkinito on Apr 5, 2015 18:44:16 GMT -5
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banana
True Banana
Zoro > Law
Posts: 1,577
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Post by banana on Apr 5, 2015 21:35:34 GMT -5
You're famous now lmao. Now I need to think of something to contribute to this community hmmm
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Post by linkinito on Apr 7, 2015 16:25:27 GMT -5
The bomb has been dropped.
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Will
True Bro
K/D below 1.0
Posts: 1,309
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Post by Will on Apr 7, 2015 16:42:21 GMT -5
If you see anything but RNGesus in this data you are bonkers
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Post by linkinito on Apr 7, 2015 17:21:59 GMT -5
Can't prove it's fully RNG but can't prove it's weighted either. 1131 ASDs might not have been enough, due to the numerous items you can get. Anyway, just realized, TmarTn was very excited to present the data 4 days ago. So shoutouts to him also, I'd say.
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