|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 28, 2015 11:20:44 GMT -5
I've been tracking all of my supply drops since 12/30 noting the duration between drops, the rarity, and type of items along with a bunch of metrics: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-KuFdRClFl9poudTC1_7QNrxuSx6U_EbtJCiFUsnVzk/edit?usp=sharingOriginally I tracked K/D, W/L, SPM, prestige and rank. Fluctuations in K/D and W/L were generally minor; SPM skyrocketed when I switched from TDM to Dom, but none of those seem to affect the time between drops, so I stopped tracking all of that data. The reason for this post is that for the last week, I've noticed a massive decline in the number of elite items coming in my supply drops. Looking back, I received on average 2.3 elite items per day from 12/30 - 1/21. But from 1/21 - 1/27, I've received a total of 2 elites. Has anyone else noticed this in their drops this past week? Was my previous elite drop rate higher, lower or on par with yours?
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 28, 2015 11:38:21 GMT -5
Play time between drops taken from the combat record.
|
|
asasa
True Bro
fuck
Posts: 4,255
|
Post by asasa on Jan 28, 2015 11:43:40 GMT -5
It looks like just variance to me. You were getting really lucky at first, and now arent. You're still well ahead of the expected elite weapon count
Actually I just noticed that wasnt Elite weapons, but elite in general. Not sure then. I think you're right on track then for the expected Elite count, but not ahead.
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 28, 2015 11:55:43 GMT -5
Yeah I think I'm doing ok elite weapon wise. I have received 30 in total including launchers and shields and duplicates, but I started playing around the beginning of December and didn't start tracking drops until the end of the month.
Sadly, I'm still grinding for the Obsidian Steed, Inferno, Speakeasy, Goliath, and Insanity like lots of other folks... and Sentinel Operator Boots...
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 28, 2015 12:00:12 GMT -5
I'm hoping it's just coincidence and that elites will start dropping more frequently again. Or SHG reveals how we can earn the weapon variants.
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 28, 2015 13:14:33 GMT -5
Are you referring to supply drops or specifically elite item drops? If it's supply drops, I'm good there, they come pretty consistently between 25-30 minutes of game time. Elite items on the other hand are a different story. From 12/30 - 1/21, I had 51 elite items over 52 hours of in-game time. From 1/22 through last night, I had 2 elite items over 16 hours of in-game time which is about 9x decrease in elite items from supply drops.
|
|
asasa
True Bro
fuck
Posts: 4,255
|
Post by asasa on Jan 28, 2015 13:24:49 GMT -5
Expected: 351 Items, 53 Elite Actual: 334 Items, 53 Elite
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 28, 2015 15:14:55 GMT -5
My only theory is whatever adjustment they made to add 10% chance of weapons being dropped for the 1/23-1/26 double xp weekend borked something else. At least for me it did.
|
|
|
Post by brontesaur on Jan 28, 2015 20:37:50 GMT -5
I think the sample size is too small to tell for the period of 1/22-1/27. My experience was that I got an elite every 2-3 days. Then 2 weeks ago I got no elite weapons for almost a whole week. Straight after that I received 3 elite weapons (RW1 Holiday, KF5 Spanner, BAL27 Inferno so some crap and some good) in 2 days. So the RNG seems to average out over a long period, in my experience.
|
|
bradman
True Bro
token old guy
Posts: 1,178
|
Post by bradman on Jan 29, 2015 7:34:31 GMT -5
I got Nigerian shower shoes and a beanie cap for my efforts this past weekend.
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Jan 29, 2015 10:41:33 GMT -5
I picked up 3 elites last night: 2xp, maelstrom shin guards, and a mahem fused. Mostly crap but hopefully this is a sign that string of bad luck has ended. I also got a hole puncher which is awesome.
|
|
|
Post by brontesaur on Jan 29, 2015 11:23:52 GMT -5
Nice. I do think that the RNG is tuned in a certain way. I haven't received ANY ARX or MP11 variants, and I've spent 3.5 days in game. I've also received close to 20 MK14s, 15 AMR9s, and 10 Amelis. The other thing is that I used to receive quite a few EM1, Bulldog, and Tac19 variants in the first month of the game coming out, and now I haven't seen a single one of them in close to 2 months.
|
|
|
Post by ktownlegend on Jan 29, 2015 11:39:25 GMT -5
I think they should make it to where you cant get the same thing twice. that way your odds of getting elites slowly get better.
|
|
lllRL
True Bro
Posts: 101
|
Post by lllRL on Jan 29, 2015 15:27:23 GMT -5
I currently have a 430SPM~ on my main and seem to get supply drops every 45 minutes or so as expected. I also tested it on my second account; I played with nothing but an Atlas 45 in TDM for a few hours and got a drop every other game (sometimes every game if I managed to string together a five kill streak). My SPM on there is around 160.
I tend to get more reinforcement care packages on my joke account though, while I get weapons (albeit crap ones) on my main.
|
|
|
Post by imrlybord7 on Jan 30, 2015 10:29:45 GMT -5
I picked up 3 elites last night: 2xp, maelstrom shin guards, and a mahem fused. Mostly crap but hopefully this is a sign that string of bad luck has ended. I also got a hole puncher which is awesome. You sound like somebody who probably hasn't taken a statistics class. Congrats on the Hole Puncher tho, wish you all the best.
|
|
|
Post by LeGitBeeSting on Jan 30, 2015 10:41:42 GMT -5
tfw you never get the facehammer the only semi-sorta-okay shotgun in game.
|
|
|
Post by Megaqwerty on Jan 30, 2015 10:42:57 GMT -5
You're like second prestige. Just give it time.
Or wait for the patch where you can just buy the gun.
|
|
|
Post by LeGitBeeSting on Jan 30, 2015 10:46:20 GMT -5
Why don't you give it time autismo.
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Feb 2, 2015 10:49:24 GMT -5
Any clues on what triggers a supply drop?
I have friends with lower K/Ds and SPM that would receive them almost every game. I imagine it's the game incentivizing bad players to keep playing. Sadly it seems to punish good players with less frequent drops and crappier contents. This has been my personal experience but would really like to know how the game determines when to give a supply drop.
|
|
Will
True Bro
K/D below 1.0
Posts: 1,309
|
Post by Will on Feb 2, 2015 11:04:55 GMT -5
Any clues on what triggers a supply drop? I have friends with lower K/Ds and SPM that would receive them almost every game. I imagine it's the game incentivizing bad players to keep playing. Sadly it seems to punish good players with less frequent drops and crappier contents. This has been my personal experience but would really like to know how the game determines when to give a supply drop. My best guess is 45 minute timer + hidden challenges (that can only be completed once each, hence why you see more at lower levels and less frequent as you get up in prestige). The 45 minute timer is pretty much confirmed as the maximum time. You will never have more than 45 minutes (game time) between drops.
|
|
|
Post by blastard on Feb 2, 2015 13:36:00 GMT -5
And so what then about Rapid Supply Drop rewards? I don't appear to get Supply Drops any faster with them. In fact, they always notify me of their expiration without ever delivering a Supply Drop. What's the dealio?
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Feb 2, 2015 14:17:48 GMT -5
From my experience, rapid supply appears to be a scam/placebo or I just don't understand how it works. I've read and heard that it supposedly cuts the time between supply drops in half, but I've go through 25 minutes of rapid supply without any drops. I've gone through 45 minutes of rapid supply with maybe 1 drop, typically around the 30 minute mark, but that's generally been my time frame for getting supply drops.
|
|
lllRL
True Bro
Posts: 101
|
Post by lllRL on Feb 2, 2015 16:37:23 GMT -5
From my experience, rapid supply appears to be a scam/placebo or I just don't understand how it works. I've read and heard that it supposedly cuts the time between supply drops in half, but I've go through 25 minutes of rapid supply without any drops. I've gone through 45 minutes of rapid supply with maybe 1 drop, typically around the 30 minute mark, but that's generally been my time frame for getting supply drops. I once had 45 minutes of rapid supply time, which supposedly halves the time between drops, and I had to wait 39 minutes of play time for my first drop with rapid supply lmao. What the Foxtrot
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Feb 8, 2015 19:39:04 GMT -5
Today I idled in Dom for 71 minutes where my only activity was selecting a load out and dying. I didn't receive a single supply drop during that time, so there's got to be some minimum amount of activity required to trigger it.
Any research into the supply drop code would be awesome
|
|
|
Post by broth3r on Feb 11, 2015 21:36:11 GMT -5
And I already owned both. Quite a painful anecdotal case.
|
|
|
Post by linkinito on Feb 23, 2015 9:33:27 GMT -5
|
|
banana
True Banana
Zoro > Law
Posts: 1,577
|
Post by banana on Feb 23, 2015 18:25:01 GMT -5
tmartn has supply drop opening montages if you want to watch them. so does ali a
|
|
|
Post by linkinito on Feb 24, 2015 9:55:32 GMT -5
tmartn has supply drop opening montages if you want to watch them. so does ali a I might add these data but I'd love to have roughly 1000 Supply drops. I'd love to get more data from a lot of sources. Anyway, I've made a new spreadsheet containing a bunch of basic statistics (crosstables etc.) And I found that a small-sized Supply Drop (1 item only) can't contain a Reinforcement. Knowing that you have a ~25% chance to get a Reinforcement globally, the fact that not a single one appears in small-sized Supply Drops is statistically improbable (0.25^28 = 1.6e-11).One Tmartn supply drop, which contained only 1 item, contained a Reinforcement. But it's extremely rare, as it's the only one yet.
|
|
banana
True Banana
Zoro > Law
Posts: 1,577
|
Post by banana on Feb 24, 2015 11:33:14 GMT -5
Did a YouTube search for supply drop Montage and there's a whole bunch of videos
|
|
|
Post by hulk2k10 on Feb 25, 2015 16:20:18 GMT -5
I stopped collecting data after 323 supply drops. Here's a summary:
* The percentages for rarity are 50% enlisted, 35% professional, 15% elite. * The percentages for type are 40% clothes, 40% weapons, 20% reinforcements. * Average number of items is 2.14 * Percentages on number of items is 25% for 1 item, 35% for 2 items, 40% for 3 items. * Average in-game time between drops is 34 minutes * Average in-game time between elite items is 90 minutes
|
|