I did not really get into Halo eSports until H2A last year. Since H2A, I have been rooting for Ninja, mainly because he has good showmanship on Twitch and as a result accumulated a sizable viewership, which is good for Halo's popularity.
For HWC, I am going to root for Ninja's team (Renegades - RNG), followed by Evil Geniuses.
In terms of predictions, I think top 4 would end up being AE/CLG/EG/RNG, because based on what I have seen so far these are the teams that have both the talent and the chemistry to go all the way.
Among these 4, IMHO the likelihood of winning the championship is as follows in ascending order:
At #4 - Renegades: Ninja is a big X Factor on this team. He is an impulsive player by nature, and that could either make or break the team's chances. At this point however, they are probably best categorized as a dark horse that can beat the other 3 when "on", but may lack the consistency required to win the championship;
At #3 - Allegiance eSports: currently sitting at #1 seed, AE demonstrated their firepower through the 5 online qualifiers. However, They won their matches mainly through slaying, and that may not be enough, especially in objective game types when they are falling behind;
At #2 - Evil Geniuses: EG is not nearly as dominant in H5 vs H2A during online cups, but that may not mean much when the time of LAN tournaments comes. The team is very disciplined, and in the next a couple of months of grinding before HWC they may have the biggest improvement as the result of that;
At #1 - Counter Logic Gaming: although the current roster was just formed last week, it is a serious force to be reckoned with. Their slaying power is very strong, and they also have EG's discipline for comebacks. The roster mania caused by Lxthul switching from EG to CLG is a shady move which will make this team a unpopular choice among fans, but that move strengthened themselves while weakened almost everybody else (except for AE which is unaffected). The net result is that they are now the best looking team.
For other teams, including the teams outside North America, I have to say none of them have a real chance. Except for perhaps EnvyUs, if Pistola and OGRE2 can somehow get back to top form in their dominating days.
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Appendix 1: time table
Jan. 29 - X Games Aspen (LAN, $30,000 prize pool, 8 teams total with 6 from NA, including the 4 mentioned above)
Feb. 6 – Last Chance Online Qualifier (to decide the 16th and final slot for NA regional)
Feb. 19-21 – North America Regional Finals
Mar. 15-17 – Halo World Championship Prelims
Mar. 19-20 - Halo World Championship Finals
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Appendix 2: NA Regional participants
halo.esportspedia.com/wiki/Halo_World_Championship_NA_Regional_Finals_2016#Participants----
Appendix 3: Prize pool
Total = 2 million and growing
Champion: 40%
Runner Up: 20%
Semi finalists: 10%
5th - 8th place: 3%
9th - 16th place: 1%