BO4 Reserves... The numbers are ugly.

[exaltedvanguard]

Under the current system, you get one reserve at a time (unless you buy crates) and get duplicate protected on the third duplicate. Each reserve case is earned after about 1 hour of play time, and through the contraband stream after completing the operation.

So how long will it take to unlock everything?

Well the answer is... a really long ass time.

According to various youtubers, there are about 1000 items in reserves as of this season (4). As of last season (3) there were 643 items in reserves.

So I wrote a very simple autoit script to simulate earning 1000 equally-weighted items under the current system with duplicate protection working how it does now. I simulated this being done 10000 times and averaged the results.

In order to unlock all 1000 items... The average of all 10000 runs? 1647.2 rolls. After more runs on different item pool sizes, I've found that it's consistently about 1.67 times the item pool size.

Since you get 3 rolls for every 2 dollars spent, you would have to pay about $1100 to unlock everything. Wow.

And I'll note that this is all assuming that items in the pool are weighted equally. Item weighting would significantly increase the number of duplicates received.

[markopolo]

EA bought COD? When did this happen?

[exaltedvanguard]

So an update added the ability to trade 6 cases (1 roll each) for 1 dupe-protected crate (3 rolls).

For most players this is noob bait.

So let's pretend we have 30 cases.

If you've unlocked 50% of items, opening 30 cases will give you 15 new items, and 5 items from rerolls for a total of 20. Trading them for dupe protection only nets 15 items.

Break even is once you own 75% of items. At that point you should start trading for dupe protection.

As of 5/23/19 there were 846 items in reserves.

[exaltedvanguard]

Just wanted to post a small update if anyone's even reading this thread.

The summer update added about 260 items bringing us to just about 1000 items. The exact count isn't available because the person maintaining the list of all items on Reddit gave up.

I also wanted to take a moment to put the reserve numbers into perspective. I'm master prestige level 110-120 (don't remember the exact number at the moment). I have 230 hours logged. I've logged far more time than the average player. And based off the list of reserve items, I'm missing at least 575 reserves, not including the 200-some from the latest update. So I'm likely at only 300/1000 items unlocked.

What the hell.

[Usagi]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯