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Post by broman55 on Nov 2, 2013 18:08:46 GMT -5
Link to spreadsheetsLink to graphs onlyBuilding on the work done by Mousey in this thread, I performed an additional analysis on the Deadeye perk and its tangible benefit on bullets to kill. From what I've gathered so far: - Deadeye adds 1.4 multiplier to base weapon damage
- Each bullet is an independent event (i.e. independent random variable)
- Probability of benefit increases with number of kills (12.5%, 16.67%, 33.33%, 40% and 50%)
- Probability of benefit reception follows binomial distribution
The spreadsheet and graphs I created determine not just the probability of getting a damage boost, but the probability of a boost AND the boost reducing the bullets to kill by 1. For example, Deadeye has no benefit for 70 bullet damage. One bonus shot increases damage to 1.4*70 = 98 damage which is still a 2 shot kill. Rough algorithm for calculations (can provide JavaScript code if requested): - With given base damage, how many bullets to kill?
- Will any combination of Deadeye benefits reduce bullets to kill by 1 (e.g. 1 out of 3 shots or 2 out of 3 shots)?
- If yes, calculate probability of that situation happening
- Sum probability of situations where bullets to kill is reduced by 1
Summary of Results- Deadeye is useless for most Marksman Rifles (only benefits MR-28 at long range)
- Useless for 35-34 damage
- Deadeye is basically useless for Sniper Rifles
- Moderate benefit for Assault Rifles at close range
- Highest benefit for SMGs and low damage weapons
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Post by rejectionrole on Nov 2, 2013 18:32:26 GMT -5
Looks good. Did you make sure the algorithm accounts for situations where, for example, the 3rd bullet of, say, a 45 damage gun receives the boost, thereby not actually reducing the BTK by one?
I haven't looked closely enough at the graph to make a determination I just figured I'd bring it up just in case.
Good work.
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Post by broman55 on Nov 2, 2013 18:48:28 GMT -5
Looks good. Did you make sure the algorithm accounts for situations where, for example, the 3rd bullet of, say, a 45 damage gun receives the boost, thereby not actually reducing the BTK by one? I haven't looked closely enough at the graph to make a determination I just figured I'd bring it up just in case. Good work. Yep, as Mousey checked, I only run calculations for BTK-1. It is worth mentioning that there are some situations where BTK can be reduced by 2, but only for damages < 15. I didn't feel it was worth illustrating on the graph. Basically, if you use Deadeye, stick to med/low damage weapons.
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Post by broman55 on Nov 2, 2013 18:51:31 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2013 18:56:55 GMT -5
Wouldn't applicable higher damage values benefit just as much as the applicable lower damage values from this perk?. The lower damage weapons may be more consistent, but there's a bigger percentile difference in TTK between going from 2 to 1 shots versus 5 to 4. Then again, if you're saying that lower damage weapons benefit more from this perk because there's a higher likelihood of the bonus damage isn't dealt on the final blow, I'd agree with you there. For instance, if a player gets shot by a 75-damage weapon, and takes 75 and 105 damage before dying, the benefit of Deadeye is useless in this case.
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Post by pwnsweet on Nov 2, 2013 19:09:19 GMT -5
thanks for this
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Post by broman55 on Nov 2, 2013 20:55:58 GMT -5
Wouldn't applicable higher damage values benefit just as much as the applicable lower damage values from this perk?. The lower damage weapons may be more consistent, but there's a bigger percentile difference in TTK between going from 2 to 1 shots versus 5 to 4. Then again, if you're saying that lower damage weapons benefit more from this perk because there's a higher likelihood of the bonus damage isn't dealt on the final blow, I'd agree with you there. For instance, if a player gets shot by a 75-damage weapon, and takes 75 and 105 damage before dying, the benefit of Deadeye is useless in this case. Think of it this way, if you have a 3 shot kill weapon, Deadeye only helps if you can make it a 2 hit kill, so you only benefit if shots 1 and/or 2 have a bonus. For a 5 shot kill weapon, you get a bonus if you can make it a 4 hit kill, meaning shots 1 and/or 2 and/or 3 and/or 4 get a bonus (this is statistically more likely). If you're doing 40 damage, you rarely get a two shot kill because both bullets need the Deadeye bonus, but if you're doing 24 damage, you almost always get bumped up to a 4 shot kill, because only one shot needs the Deadeye Bonus.
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Usagi
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Post by Usagi on Nov 2, 2013 22:11:29 GMT -5
Looks like I'm using Deadeye on the K7. Thanks for this analysis and for making graphs of it, too.
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Post by broman55 on Nov 2, 2013 22:19:50 GMT -5
I added a few charts, grouped together weapons with similar damage ranges
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Post by corpsecreate on Nov 2, 2013 23:26:03 GMT -5
It's possible deadeye %'s changed with the last patch. I'll re-test it later today.
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Usagi
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Post by Usagi on Nov 3, 2013 1:42:02 GMT -5
It's not even day one yet.
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Amirror
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Call of Duty! Ah, Grrr, Ohhh… Argh… Yaaagh!… It’s not right… not right… not right…
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Post by Amirror on Nov 3, 2013 2:04:00 GMT -5
How does it work for shotguns? Does it goe by % with only the one shot or does each pellet have a % chance? Does it help them at all?
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Post by rejectionrole on Nov 3, 2013 2:04:21 GMT -5
have you guys found any differences yet? I cant imagine thered be balance changes. A day one patch usually does nothing but address actual issues that interfere with the game itself. Based on Usagi's post in one of the Hey, Guy threads they buffed the SA-805's mag size (by 2, but still), so it wouldn't strain credulity too much to assume they made other changes as well.
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Usagi
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Post by Usagi on Nov 3, 2013 2:06:30 GMT -5
have you guys found any differences yet? I cant imagine thered be balance changes. A day one patch usually does nothing but address actual issues that interfere with the game itself. Based on Usagi's post in one of the Hey, Guy threads they buffed the SA-805's mag size (by 2, but still), so it wouldn't strain credulity too much to assume they made other changes as well. Could be plenty of changes they made after they shipped the game to certification, they just couldn't apply them until the MP servers went up.
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Post by brokenpos on Nov 3, 2013 4:31:30 GMT -5
The ak does 42+ damage up to medium range which with deadeye it basically turns into a mw2 tar with stopping power 75% of the time (with lower rpm).
Bizon and vector were made for this. Gives them the edge on the mtarx at short range.
We'll have to see the damage plateaus on the guns before we can come to any real conclusions. If the ak drops to 41 damage after 10 foot deadeye becomes much less useful.
Basically guns with plateaus at 49-42 33-30 and 23-24 will enjoy this the most and guns with plateaus at 50+ 41-34 29-25 and 22- don't.
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Post by broman55 on Nov 3, 2013 9:53:02 GMT -5
Once we have a bit more info on Damage vs. Range for the weapons, I'll try to come up with a Deadeye Probability vs Range for each weapon (if it's helpful). Might be kinda weird to look at, but I'll try to make it easy to understand.
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Post by RageHulkSmash on Nov 9, 2013 0:20:24 GMT -5
Deadeye is weird. At first, there are some weapons that look amazing with it like the M27 IAR. But that's ignoring headshots and fighting enemies already damaged. The guns are also back to the sloped damage reduction vs range rather than discrete drops like in BO2. I think I may just stay away from this perk entirely because of the high cost and randomness to it.
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Post by elmadzio on Nov 11, 2013 14:46:19 GMT -5
If you use Deadeye as the first perk in the Specialist killstreak, would it start out with 50% chance as I already have gotten 4+ kills or would the kills start from 0?
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