wittyscorpion
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All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 24, 2014 10:50:15 GMT -5
10/23 Hunter run: Plan C, Hezen's Vengeance, lots of shards, no raid gear.
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 24, 2014 11:04:51 GMT -5
....here are my thoughts after reading people's results.
Thought 1 - The overall average for getting one (or more) pieces of Raid gear on a Normal VoG run seem to be coming in somewhere around 40% to 45% of the time. That's the overall average. But one can disregard this number, because.....
Thought 2 - ..the above average is skewed, as your first Raid attempt on 'Normal', a person seems to have a solid 75% chance of getting one or more pieces Raid gear. With some people showing results that sometimes give two pieces. That creates this situation
Thought 3 - The actual odds of getting Raid gear on attempts AFTER your first run seem to be running around 25%. It's taking one out of every four attempts to get Raid gear once you begin your 2nd plus attempts.
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 24, 2014 11:14:44 GMT -5
As I mentioned in the Xur thread, my attempt of getting lucky from exotic engrams = I now have exotic helmet/gaunlet/chest for Hunter, which is the least I want but would definitely help my Hunter. I way lucky to get Raid boots on my very first VoG run, so I am all set now in terms of maximizing my odds, just need any of Raid helmet/gauntlet/chest to drop. I'll see how many runs it will take for me to get those. I am cautiously optimistic for an ETA of December  |
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 24, 2014 11:41:01 GMT -5
If my guestimates are correct, here is the math for getting Raid gear on 2nd (or later attempts)
25% = Odds of getting gear.
57.8% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after THREE attempts.
76.3% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after FIVE attempts.
86.6% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after SEVEN attempts.
92.5% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after NINE attempts.
So you run the VoG five times, you'll get a piece of gear. The problem with the above, is that there is no way of determining which piece of gear you will get. That's to much work for me, in terms of calculations (or maybe I don't want to know)
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 24, 2014 11:48:51 GMT -5
If my guestimates are correct, here is the math for getting Raid gear on 2nd (or later attempts) 25% = Odds of getting gear. 57.8% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after THREE attempts. 76.3% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after FIVE attempts. 86.6% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after SEVEN attempts. 92.5% = Odds of getting any piece of gear after NINE attempts. So you run the VoG five times, you'll get a piece of gear. The problem with the above, is that there is no way of determining which piece of gear you will get. That's to much work for me, in terms of calculations (or maybe I don't want to know) I am sure the next time I got a Raid gear, it will be Raid boots again. That's usually how things work in my world: redundancy |
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malgato
True Bro
Farm ammo, then everyone wipe.
Posts: 1,195
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Post by malgato on Oct 24, 2014 11:50:06 GMT -5
Screw you, math. Math sucks. Nerf math.
TL:DR RNG hates me.
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Post by GodMars on Oct 24, 2014 12:33:04 GMT -5
So, my Hunter:
First raid last week (normal): no gear
Normal raid this week: gloves and chest
Hard mode Atheon with cheese this week: helm
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 24, 2014 15:01:58 GMT -5
Screw you, math. Math sucks. Nerf math. TL:DR RNG hates me. This guy's bench attempt, reminds me of your VoG loot attempts so far Mal....(btw...425 solo? WTF???) |
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malgato
True Bro
Farm ammo, then everyone wipe.
Posts: 1,195
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Post by malgato on Oct 24, 2014 15:16:54 GMT -5
Screw you, math. Math sucks. Nerf math. TL:DR RNG hates me. This guy's bench attempt, reminds me of your VoG loot attempts so far Mal....(btw...425 solo? WTF???)  |
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malgato
True Bro
Farm ammo, then everyone wipe.
Posts: 1,195
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Post by malgato on Oct 24, 2014 19:43:25 GMT -5
Woohoo!
5th time is the charm. Normal raid, Warlock. Got the raid gloves and the Warlock Bond (and Hezen Vengeance, Praedyth's Revenge, Atheon's Epilogue). It was good.
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tooros
True Bro
Pony Stark
Posts: 1,306
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Post by tooros on Oct 25, 2014 3:50:06 GMT -5
Ok. I've done 2 raids only. Normal. First last weekend. 2nd last night.
No raid gear whatsoever.
1st week I got the exotic launcher Gjallahorn, a ship, a very sparkly armband, Praedyth's Revenge and Atheon's Epilogue. Last night I got about 11 shards in total and a shader.
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qupie
True Bro
Posts: 12,400
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Post by qupie on Oct 26, 2014 5:48:14 GMT -5
....here are my thoughts after reading people's results. Thought 1 - The overall average for getting one (or more) pieces of Raid gear on a Normal VoG run seem to be coming in somewhere around 40% to 45% of the time. That's the overall average. But one can disregard this number, because..... Thought 2 - ..the above average is skewed, as your first Raid attempt on 'Normal', a person seems to have a solid 75% chance of getting one or more pieces Raid gear. With some people showing results that sometimes give two pieces. That creates this situation Thought 3 - The actual odds of getting Raid gear on attempts AFTER your first run seem to be running around 25%. It's taking one out of every four attempts to get Raid gear once you begin your 2nd plus attempts. I have my doubts with this theory. On my first raid run, there where 5 raid virgins, and 1 player who already did it once. The latter was the only one getting any raid armour. If your theory is correct, there would be a (0.25x0.25x0.25x0.25x0.25=) 0.001 chance of 5 virgins not getting loot. And while it is not an impossible chance, I find it improbable I think we have a to small sample size to see any effects like these. I think it is just random |
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 26, 2014 23:23:21 GMT -5
3rd Raid run, 1st on my warlock: got Raid Gear chest and Raid Gear boots |
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 27, 2014 8:48:05 GMT -5
....here are my thoughts after reading people's results. Thought 1 - The overall average for getting one (or more) pieces of Raid gear on a Normal VoG run seem to be coming in somewhere around 40% to 45% of the time. That's the overall average. But one can disregard this number, because..... Thought 2 - ..the above average is skewed, as your first Raid attempt on 'Normal', a person seems to have a solid 75% chance of getting one or more pieces Raid gear. With some people showing results that sometimes give two pieces. That creates this situation Thought 3 - The actual odds of getting Raid gear on attempts AFTER your first run seem to be running around 25%. It's taking one out of every four attempts to get Raid gear once you begin your 2nd plus attempts. I have my doubts with this theory. On my first raid run, there where 5 raid virgins, and 1 player who already did it once. The latter was the only one getting any raid armour. If your theory is correct, there would be a (0.25x0.25x0.25x0.25x0.25=) 0.001 chance of 5 virgins not getting loot. And while it is not an impossible chance, I find it improbable I think we have a to small sample size to see any effects like these. I think it is just random You are probably right. After putting the above post up, a number of people came in showing first attempt tries that got nothing. If it is entirely random (which we all believe), then it has to be based on a % odds calculated into the code. Right now, it sure seems like that number is down around 35% to 45% per attempt. But the above might be a bit high. On normal, my ratio (Raid Gear/Raid attempts) is currently running at 25%. |
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tooros
True Bro
Pony Stark
Posts: 1,306
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Post by tooros on Oct 29, 2014 20:43:21 GMT -5
Another run. Another failure. Still no raid gear.
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malgato
True Bro
Farm ammo, then everyone wipe.
Posts: 1,195
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Post by malgato on Oct 29, 2014 21:40:12 GMT -5
Partial hard mode run - Oracles, Templar (with bonus chest), Gorgons.
Nothing but shards/energy (maybe 15-20 combined?). My luck (or lack thereof) continues...
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dm
True Bro
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Post by dm on Oct 30, 2014 5:58:31 GMT -5
One more normal run (thanks to everyone in the party) I received the void sniper rifle (my second one) and some raid chest armour, so in three raids I have got 1 primary, 2 secondaries, some boots and chest armour. Only gloves to go now, although to be honest I am not sure I 'deserve' level 30  |
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 30, 2014 6:47:41 GMT -5
I did a raid run last night, .....nothing but a shard fest. Not even a single weapon
edit...my current numbers just for the Normal mode (I have a few hard runs too)
Six VoG normal runs - 1st run gave me Raid Boots and Raid Chest. 2nd through 6th runs? No Raid gear. (I've also probably done another six raid runs, but my understanding is only the first attempt during a week gives Raid gear)
I have my 2nd character still to do this week, so there's still hope. But this is getting frustrating. What are the odds of being shut out on five straight qualifying attempts, if the odds are 40%? It's about 8%. I suppose I still can assign this to bad luck. But if I get shut out again, on a six attempt, the odds of whiffing on six tries is around 4%. At some point, things aren't adding up. I'm either VERY unlucky, or the true odds are much lower than 40%.
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 31, 2014 8:02:57 GMT -5
Two normal runs last night: got a Titan gauntlet, and another copy of Warlock boots. No weapons, lots shards and energy (which I need desperately).
Regarding Raid Gear: I had 5 runs so far, 4 runs yield raid gears, for 5 pieces total. 1 of them is a duplicate.
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 31, 2014 8:49:26 GMT -5
Two normal runs last night: got a Titan gauntlet, and another copy of Warlock boots. No weapons, lots shards and energy (which I need desperately). Regarding Raid Gear: I had 5 runs so far, 4 runs yield raid gears, for 5 pieces total. 1 of them is a duplicate. that's pretty amazing witty. 1.0 pieces per attempt, and 80% drop ratio. My current totals are seven attempts. One raid yield two pieces (my first try), the other six have given me zero. 0.28 pieces per attempt, and 14% drop ratio. When I include in my 1.5 hard raids, which also gave me zero, the numbers look even worse. |
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 31, 2014 8:53:10 GMT -5
Out of the 5 runs: 3 are first attempts of a character. Not sure whether that (first attempt) makes a difference or not, it sure feels that way to me, but maybe just coincidence.
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hebbnh
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Cacodemon expert
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Post by hebbnh on Oct 31, 2014 9:19:16 GMT -5
Update from last night:
Hunter on normal, raid gloves (duplicate), raid cloak(!!!)
Warlock on normal, raid boots (duplicate), raid sparkly armband(!), raid ship (kinda ugly, actually)
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Post by thebb22 on Oct 31, 2014 9:49:27 GMT -5
10/30 Raids
Titan - Raid gloves (duplicate/#3), more raid gloves (duplicate duplicate/#4), Atheon's Epilogue (duplicate/#4)
Warlock - Raid chest, Patience and Time, Universal Remote (duplicate), and the raid ship
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Post by iw5000 on Oct 31, 2014 10:19:24 GMT -5
Out of the 5 runs: 3 are first attempts of a character. Not sure whether that (first attempt) makes a difference or not, it sure feels that way to me, but maybe just coincidence. anecdotal evidence points that way. It was my hunch after reviewing about twelve people's results. The game boosts the odds on the first character run, to make you get excited. Then it fvcks you in the azz for the next couple dozens attempts. |
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Post by psychlon on Nov 2, 2014 16:08:19 GMT -5
I got shoes, white color, an armband and mats on my first run.
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 2, 2014 23:36:12 GMT -5
Did 2 partial hard raid (shoot the oracle, cheese the templar, then get the loot before the gate keep fighter)
First run: Praedyth's Revenge x 2 (yes, opened 1 chest and got 2 of this)
second run: raid boots (duplicate, now I have 3 sets)
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 7, 2014 12:07:21 GMT -5
Last night's normal raid did not drop much loot for me: 3rd copy of Hunter Raid cloak, 5th copy of Chatterwhite, shards and energies. No weapons, no raid gear.
For our party of 6: I believe that only one guy got one piece of raid gear.
It appears to me that Nightfall has more attractive drops: last week's runs gave me 2 pieces of exotic armor, and two runs yesterday gave me the exotic Thunderlord and a legendary Sniper Rifle.
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 12, 2014 13:01:55 GMT -5
Did a partial hard run of Oracle -> Gatekeeper and was lucky enough to get the 3rd piece of raid gear on my Warlock. I am now ready to level up to 30. Still want the Raid helmet though because Warlock exotic helmet kinda blows.
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Post by iw5000 on Nov 12, 2014 14:39:11 GMT -5
Did a partial hard run of Oracle -> Gatekeeper and was lucky enough to get the 3rd piece of raid gear on my Warlock. I am now ready to level up to 30. Still want the Raid helmet though because Warlock exotic helmet kinda blows. I got nothing but energy and shards in the four loot attempts last night. I still have two other Warlocks to try it with this week. |
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 12, 2014 15:26:45 GMT -5
To help myself track my records, I created the following table: 1) Warlock - luckiest: got raid gear drops every run and finished acquiring 3 different pieces within 4 runs: | Attempt | Difficulty | Completion | Raid Armor | Exotic Weapon | Raid Weapon | | 1 | Normal | 100% | Chest & Boots | |
| | 2 | Normal | 100% | Boots |
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| | 3 | Hard | Oracle->Gatekeeper | Boots |
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| | 4 | Hard | Oracle->Gatekeeper | Gloves |
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2) Hunter: not bad with Raid boots on 1st run and Plan-C & Hazen Vengeance on 2nd run | Attempt | Difficulty | Completion | Raid Armor | Exotic Weapon | Raid Weapon | | 1 | Normal | 100% | Boots | |
| | 2 | Normal | 100% |
| Plan-C | Hazen Vengeance | | 3 | Normal | 100% |
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#) Titan: OKish with gloves on 1st run and 2 copies of Raid Sniper Rifle on 2nd run. I have a feeling that boots is going to be the biggest problem for this guy | Attempt | Difficulty | Completion | Raid Armor | Exotic Weapon | Raid Weapon | | 1 | Normal | 100% | Gloves | |
| | 2 | Hard | Oracle->Gatekeeper |
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| Preydyth's Vengeance x 2 | | 3 | Hard | Oracle->Gatekeeper |
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