markopolo
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Post by markopolo on Jun 12, 2014 9:54:55 GMT -5
People will always freak out about everything game design/concept related. Whether it's power jumps, nitro boosters, zipzap lazers, yadda yadda yadda. So this whole "this isn't COD" argument is expected. It's bullshit, but it's expected. Then guess what: the game comes out.
And people don't give 2 shits about that "AW isn't COD" bullshit anymore. They complain about the real issues: connectivity, lag, sound, and graphics. Which is what I said in the beginning, and especially now that this will be the first "next gen" COD game and is "blazing new ground":
One: It has to play and handle nice. Super nice. Like buddah. Little to no lag. No "rounding a corner then 3 seconds later, you fall down dead and in the kill cam, you never made it around the corner" bullshit that MW3 did so infuriatingly effectively.
Two: It has to have great connection. Yes, there will always be those people who complain that their gamemode that they play 100% of the time (that only attracts 450 people out a player base of 350k) will lag and have connection issues... those the devs can't control (well maybe: they can get rid of the game mode) But if people log in day one, try to get into a Core TDM game, see that there are 300k people logged in, and the game doesn't work for them, people'll be pissed.
Three: the sound and graphics have to be fantastic. Which (because it's a next gen game) is the easiest for them to pull off.
Forget gun balance. Forget perk balance. Forget killstreaks, supportstreaks, or other streaks. Forget clan wars. Forget camos. Forget DLC's. Forget it all.
Make the game play well... make the game connect... make the game look and sound effing gorgeous.
If AW can do that and deliver what the COD Hype machine says it can: AW will shatter records.
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jun 12, 2014 11:20:42 GMT -5
Honestly I don't think it even has to look particularly gorgeous, just be a significant leap above past CoD's, which have regularly lagged behind other games in the graphics department. I don't actually expect AW to rival any of the nicer looking next gen games, I just expect it to basically catch up a little.
As for lag... unfortunately being next gen really doesn't do squat for that. People will expect a whole new generation of games to be magically better in every single way, but it doesn't improve your internet one bit. This one still comes down to the net code and in this case we have a new CoD studio that's unproven. On the one hand we can hope that they know and understand what that means, that this is a first impression for CoD fans and if AW has bad netcode they will be branded with that and it will affect the sales of their next CoD game as well as AW. On the other hand, we can hope all we want, proof is in the pudding.
Have they showed a lot of multiplayer gameplay yet? I haven't really been looking for it. The jumping and climbing could be a major factor or more of just another way to get around the maps at times. I kind of imagine it leaving you pretty vulnerable. That would be very CoD. Anything that isn't just running around makes you vulnerable. Mantle a ledge, dolphin dive, zip line, climb a ladder, sprint, ect... Every way of moving around that isn't just running makes you vulnerable in some way. (That's something I've actually never liked as it discourages you from doing interesting things, and is probably the biggest reason why now Titanfall>CoD in my book.)
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markopolo
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Post by markopolo on Jun 12, 2014 11:35:39 GMT -5
Honestly I don't think it even has to look particularly gorgeous, just be a significant leap above past CoD's, which have regularly lagged behind other games in the graphics department. I don't actually expect AW to rival any of the nicer looking next gen games, I just expect it to basically catch up a little. Agreed... but I guess I keep coming back to Ghosts and how they swooned and oohed about those stupid fish. AW can't have that; everything has to be bat$hit awesome. As for lag... unfortunately being next gen really doesn't do squat for that. People will expect a whole new generation of games to be magically better in every single way, but it doesn't improve your internet one bit. This one still comes down to the net code and in this case we have a new CoD studio that's unproven. On the one hand we can hope that they know and understand what that means, that this is a first impression for CoD fans and if AW has bad netcode they will be branded with that and it will affect the sales of their next CoD game as well as AW. On the other hand, we can hope all we want, proof is in the pudding. Agreed. The user's internet will always be a factor in lag. But if someone has an uber connection and the game is lagging, that's no good. Have they showed a lot of multiplayer gameplay yet? I haven't really been looking for it. The jumping and climbing could be a major factor or more of just another way to get around the maps at times. I kind of imagine it leaving you pretty vulnerable. That would be very CoD. Anything that isn't just running around makes you vulnerable. Mantle a ledge, dolphin dive, zip line, climb a ladder, sprint, ect... Every way of moving around that isn't just running makes you vulnerable in some way. (That's something I've actually never liked as it discourages you from doing interesting things, and is probably the biggest reason why now Titanfall>CoD in my book.) AFAIK, there has been no multiplayer info released.
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jun 12, 2014 11:41:53 GMT -5
Ahh Personally I doubt they've gone whole hog with the movement stuff and will have people jumping and climbing all over the place all game. There's bound to be trade offs, some things will probably be single player only, and what does get into MP may require a specific perk or equipment in your loadout.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 11:56:49 GMT -5
There is a huge noticeable difference between TitanFall (on the XB1) and Ghosts (360) in relation to lag. When CoDAW comes out next November, I am going to be playing it on the XB1. And if it doesn't have at least TitanFall connectivity abilities, I am going to be really jacked off. There is no excuse anymore. I see TitanFall doing it every time I play. AW should be able to do the same.
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jun 12, 2014 12:16:27 GMT -5
Agreed, I'm doing Titanfall on PC, (where Ghosts was extra shit due to random FPS lag spikes... so bad I played one day on a free weekend and uninstalled it... NOPE!) and yeah if AW can't hold it's own I will be disappoint.
TF looks and plays great, no excuses is right.
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wittyscorpion
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 12, 2014 12:50:06 GMT -5
CoD formula, especially the core game play and combat sandbox, are facing inventor's dilemma due to its own success. If changed, the existing fans will dislike. If unchanged, it is risking in becoming irrelevant. Personally I love to see an overhaul of movements, adding more interesting horizontal and vertical moves into the sandbox. However, my enthusiasm in movements are not shared by most of my CoD friends. They want CoD to be "grounded", pun intended.
ActiVision know it and they are doing something smart: they put heavy investments into a new IP - Destiny, to take pressure off CoD. If Destiny is reasonably successful, then CoD developers will have more freedom in trying new ideas.
In terms of CoD:AW, fundamentally I am still optimistic. I don't think drastic changes have to be made, just focus on the following key areas:
1) ActiVision is smart on continuing to use XBL as the lead platform for CoD. With that as the foundation, I really hope CoD:AW can take advantage of MSFT's dedicated servers. MSFT will be happy to do that, because then they can say CoD is best to be played on XONE, just like Sony is claiming that Destiny is best to be played on PS4. So this totally could happen if ActiVision is willing;
This move will single handedly remove the biggest issue that plagues CoD, the lag, which has been made painfully obvious now after players have experienced Titanfall.
2) Allow more players. 9v9 Ground War must be there (can't believe that Ghosts does not have it for last gen, which totally junked the bigger maps), and it is certainly welcome if they can allow even more players;
3) Learn the lessons from BO2 and Ghosts on Score streaks design, not too strong as in BO2, and not too weak as in Ghosts;
4) Baby steps on introducing new elements, like movement.
Keep everything else relatively the same and the game is still going to be a hit and money making machine.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 13:07:15 GMT -5
I would add a #5 to that witty....
5) Use the new platform, new designer, and delink the gosh darn golly gee whiz game from the horrific shackles of "KDRatio". Begone. Get rid of it. And I don't necessarily mean don't have it as a stat anymore, but handle it like TitanFall handles it. Only you can see it. And once that's done, people can feel free to go play the game modes, as to how they were intended. It's quite liberating (and fun) when everyone is just playing the game mode as it was intended. Sad thing is, most CoD players don't even realize how twistedly fvcked up they are. And I say that including many people on my friend's list.
...ok
...everyone can now laugh at me and insert cracks about how pigs will fly before the above ever happens. I get that.
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infidel
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Post by infidel on Jun 12, 2014 13:08:22 GMT -5
Note I said "To me, AW isn't COD." It's my opinion that you can only change something so much before you've lost the feel of the original.
That's my "silly," "whining," "bullshit" opinion. It's also my opinion that all relevant parties can shove all their ad hominen attacks squarely up their asses.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 13:16:28 GMT -5
Note I said "To me, AW isn't COD." It's my opinion that you can only change something so much before you've lost the feel of the original. That's my "silly," "whining," "bullshit" opinion. It's also my opinion that all relevant parties can shove all their ad hominen attacks squarely up their asses. I said I thought that type of thinking was 'silly' and if that one word offended you, not sure what to say you, other than you are being to sensitive. That's my opinion. I think it's kind of silly to think that moving to the 'near future', having some extra movement or tech gadgets, could possible lose the CoD feel or spirit. Especially coming on the heels of BO2, which was in the near future too. Same time period as AW. Furthermore, what is the 'feel of the original'? The original CoD was a WW2 shooter. That's how it was for years and years, locked into that style of gameplay with little in terms of perks or killstreaks. Then in 2007, IW made a bold move and changed the entire game, ....taking the game into [drum roll please...] the PRESENT!!! That may seem like no big deal, but it wasn't back then. I remember the early news from then. "This might backfire, it's too soon", "to close to Iraq, this might be troubling". People weren't feeling it. How did it turn out? Pretty gosh darn golly gee whiz well. The 'spirit' of CoD wasn't lost and in fact, a new 'spirit' defining CoD was made. Just my opinion.
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Post by ChloeB42 (Alexcalibur42) on Jun 12, 2014 13:21:59 GMT -5
Honestly I don't think it even has to look particularly gorgeous, just be a significant leap above past CoD's, which have regularly lagged behind other games in the graphics department. I don't actually expect AW to rival any of the nicer looking next gen games, I just expect it to basically catch up a little. Agreed... but I guess I keep coming back to Ghosts and how they swooned and oohed about those stupid fish. AW can't have that; everything has to be bat$hit awesome. As for lag... unfortunately being next gen really doesn't do squat for that. People will expect a whole new generation of games to be magically better in every single way, but it doesn't improve your internet one bit. This one still comes down to the net code and in this case we have a new CoD studio that's unproven. On the one hand we can hope that they know and understand what that means, that this is a first impression for CoD fans and if AW has bad netcode they will be branded with that and it will affect the sales of their next CoD game as well as AW. On the other hand, we can hope all we want, proof is in the pudding. Agreed. The user's internet will always be a factor in lag. But if someone has an uber connection and the game is lagging, that's no good. Have they showed a lot of multiplayer gameplay yet? I haven't really been looking for it. The jumping and climbing could be a major factor or more of just another way to get around the maps at times. I kind of imagine it leaving you pretty vulnerable. That would be very CoD. Anything that isn't just running around makes you vulnerable. Mantle a ledge, dolphin dive, zip line, climb a ladder, sprint, ect... Every way of moving around that isn't just running makes you vulnerable in some way. (That's something I've actually never liked as it discourages you from doing interesting things, and is probably the biggest reason why now Titanfall>CoD in my book.) AFAIK, there has been no multiplayer info released. They haven't shown MP but they've mention several things about it already. Mostly stuff that's been known for a while. Exosuits and directed energy weapons are in Multiplayer.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 13:25:10 GMT -5
Driftor felt pretty certain the power boots, power strafes were going to be in the MP too. See his most recent video.
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wittyscorpion
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 12, 2014 13:30:08 GMT -5
I would add a #5 to that witty.... 5) Use the new platform, new designer, and delink the gosh darn golly gee whiz game from the horrific shackles of "KDRatio". Begone. Get rid of it. And I don't necessarily mean don't have it as a stat anymore, but handle it like TitanFall handles it. Only you can see it. And once that's done, people can feel free to go play the game modes, as to how they were intended. It's quite liberating (and fun) when everyone is just playing the game mode as it was intended. Sad thing is, most CoD players don't even realize how twistedly fvcked up they are. And I say that including many people on my friend's list. ...ok ...everyone can now laugh at me and insert cracks about how pigs will fly before the above ever happens. I get that. As I mentioned in other threads, this is a double edged sword. Stats give players bragging rights, which is why many players play CoD. This is especially important for CoD and less so for TF, because CoD is all about killing on foot. KDR is always going to be at the center of CoD because that's what made it successful in terms of sales. Even for TF, I think one main reason why it is not as popular as expected is because the stats are not visible. The stats whores feel that there is no point to invest into the game since there is nothing to play for.
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markopolo
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Post by markopolo on Jun 12, 2014 13:33:01 GMT -5
AFAIK, there has been no multiplayer info released. They haven't shown MP but they've mention several things about it already. Mostly stuff that's been known for a while. Exosuits and directed energy weapons are in Multiplayer. Shit... I meant, officially released (ie: videos showing it) Thanks
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Post by ChloeB42 (Alexcalibur42) on Jun 12, 2014 13:33:47 GMT -5
IW- I saw it, and I pretty much figured that just from SP gameplay. I know you can't base MP from SP for the most part, but with confirmed exosuits and those being basic movements in SP, not a prescripted thing like gliders in BO2, it's pretty safe to say it's in MP.
Honestly I also think the select-a-grenade is going to be in MP too and be default. That way you always go in with a grenade and you can choose what to do with it.
But I was talking Dev confirmed info. I have no doubts Drift is right but he isn't a Dev.
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infidel
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Post by infidel on Jun 12, 2014 15:06:51 GMT -5
Note I said "To me, AW isn't COD." It's my opinion that you can only change something so much before you've lost the feel of the original. That's my "silly," "whining," "bullshit" opinion. It's also my opinion that all relevant parties can shove all their ad hominen attacks squarely up their asses. I said I thought that type of thinking was 'silly' and if that one word offended you, not sure what to say you, other than you are being to sensitive. That's my opinion. I think it's kind of silly to think that moving to the 'near future', having some extra movement or tech gadgets, could possible lose the CoD feel or spirit. Especially coming on the heels of BO2, which was in the near future too. Same time period as AW. Furthermore, what is the 'feel of the original'? The original CoD was a WW2 shooter. That's how it was for years and years, locked into that style of gameplay with little in terms of perks or killstreaks. Then in 2007, IW made a bold move and changed the entire game, ....taking the game into [drum roll please...] the PRESENT!!! That may seem like no big deal, but it wasn't back then. I remember the early news from then. "This might backfire, it's too soon", "to close to Iraq, this might be troubling". People weren't feeling it. How did it turn out? Pretty gosh darn golly gee whiz well. The 'spirit' of CoD wasn't lost and in fact, a new 'spirit' defining CoD was made. Just my opinion. WWII and the settings of the MW series were historic and present-day respectively. With AW, COD is transforming into a sci-fi shooter. That's a major, indisputable distinction, as I see it. COD was never a sci-fi shooter. Yes, BO2 began the push, but I didn't like it then, and I don't like it now. Hell, I didn't like it when the heartbeat sensor was introduced in MW2, but it was a minor sin comparatively. And it didn't take five perks to counter all the cheap bullshit like it does now. I personally don't want a sci-fi shooter replete with cheap gimmicks and gizmos. I loved COD because it wasn't a sci-fi shooter and I hate to see it go down that path.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 15:46:12 GMT -5
Fair enough. But in terms of what we can go on when discussing this thread topic, hard numbers, BO2's push to the near future didn't seem to hurt the franchise to much. It supposedly set 24hr initial sales records, as well as five day sales records. So people weren't turned off initially by the news of 'near future' gameplay. They showed up to buy it. While BO2 sales ultimately fell short of MW3, the drop seemed to happen later. Word of mouth? I personally think it was due to the horrendous killstreak system killing later sales. Either way, BO2 still sold around 26 million. It did well.
I personally don't think going from the 'modern era' to 'near future' is that big of a jump for most all CoD players. Certainly not as far as going WW2 to modern era. And from what we have seen, most of the new stuff isn't even that science fiction'ish. It's stuff that is sort of already here. And certainly not anymore out there than what was in BO2. But that all said, I think your point of view might have merit, ....if enough people buy into the 'story' that AW = Halo. If that gets traction, yeah, it could hurt sales. But if you watch the gameplay footage, AW looks NOTHING like Halo or plays even remotely close to it.
btw, the cheap gimmicks and other junk is already here. You have been using it for three or four games now. Perks that allow you to jump off of 100' buildings? perks that enable you to run 20mph? Perks that give you bionic ears? Kilstreaks that allow you to toss explosive paper airplanes? And yeah, the king holder, gay man's hand. CoD is already full of cheap and gimmick.
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jun 12, 2014 15:47:48 GMT -5
I don't see it that way. Changing the setting doesn't in and of it-self change the core game. In the end it's all just polygons and hitscans and the rest is interpretation. The core gameplay is the real key and you could build a game in a high fantasy setting but give it the same mechanics. I'm not saying that the setting is irrelevant, just that it alone doesn't alter the core game.
As for the historic settings... The WWII ones were historic, certainly... Some of the CoD4 stuff may have been construed as being recent historical, but it diverged pretty quickly especially with the nuke and from there MW went down the rabbit hole right into WWIII which isn't remotely historical at all and verges on "near-future" IMO. So then they go a bit further future but still keep it near-future. I dunno, it's just another timeline shift, same as the old timeline shift to me. Sure this one is based more on speculation than the Modern Warfare era stuff, but they aren't going full on Halo with it. It's more like taking inspiration from things like Elysium where there is cool tech, but it's all grounded and physical, not all glowy light swords and holograms.
Honestly I don't think I'd call AW a "scifi shooter" by any means. I think it's going to be largely more of the same old CoD with a few scifi doodads for cool points. Not that you have to like it. I respect if you don't. Each to his own, you know. Personally I do like modern military shooters, but I'm a little burned out on them and ready for a change of pace for a while. Besides, don't worry. If you hate AW there's always next year. Who's up to bat next, Treyarch? They'll probably drop back to modern era and AW will the the near future CoD franchise for at least a trilogy unless it tanks hard. Personally I had really hoped they would iterate just a decade when they made BO2 instead of going near future. I kinda really wanted to see a game set mostly in the 80's late cold war era.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 15:52:19 GMT -5
And why not a WW2 shooter again down the road ....just remade with the new console graphics (1080/60), with new streaks, new movement systems, some vehicles like WaW and all the other new things we have come to expect? We haven't seen one since WaW. Some of this stuff might even be cool again, in a retro way.
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Post by TheHawkNY on Jun 12, 2014 16:07:28 GMT -5
As usual, there's no reason to think that they will make changes to the multiplayer that are more significant than they have made from title to title in the past.
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jun 12, 2014 16:07:48 GMT -5
I absolutely expect to see WWII revisited again, but I think somebody has to really do something new with it to justify an entire CoD game investment. These days there is still some lingering WWII shooter fatigue, but it probably would be Treyarch to go back to it. I'm sure they would like to revive their zombies sub game back as Nazi Zombies again... Hell I never really understood why CoD:Nazi Zombies never became it's own stand alone spinoff title, (not that I've played much of it).
I'm not sure what would really make it fresh, though pick 10 wouldn't hurt.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 12, 2014 16:24:35 GMT -5
You add all the newer stuff that has come out recently (pick 10, perks, killstreaks, league play, etc..), plus new graphics, toss in the WaW vehicles, plus maybe a 12 v 12 mode....WW2 could be done again.
Get rid of campaign too, and just make a "Top 20 WW2 scenes from movies" campaign. Where you go and play some of Hollywood's (and history's) best sequences.
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Post by bucket415 on Jun 12, 2014 16:34:20 GMT -5
Marco, I hear you. I just think this year, we might see a real drop. There is CoD fatigue out there. Activision knows it. The developers know it. If you are currently playing the game, you see it in the player base. The 'future' aspect thing might revitalize the franchise, but I think there is a better chance of it killing interest (60/40?) Enough to see the 'wait in line' shit not happen next November. Like start there. And from there, if that doesn't happen, the urgency to buy isn't there. And then like only 1 to 2 million in the first 24 hours, rather than 8 million. That happens, the next game isn't hitting 15 million. It might drop below. if the game sales trend has gone from 30, to 25 to 21 million units sold....why not continue dropping to say ten million? Because there's no precedent for that. Can you think of any annualized title that saw a sales decrease of over 50% from one year to the next? As for CoD fatigue, perhaps that applies somewhat to the multiplayer, but it's unlikely that it extends to the single player. They probably drive close to 10 million sales on the single player alone. But there also isnt any precedent for a game to sell as well as COD has the past few years. The anomaly can go both ways. "The bigger they are, the harder they fall."
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Post by ChloeB42 (Alexcalibur42) on Jun 12, 2014 17:18:12 GMT -5
In regards to the sci fi aspect. It's not even sci fi because it's real life technology, it's only "sci fi" in that they're interpreting uses of modern technology on the battlefield in 40 years from now. It was the same story as BO2. In fact I remember an article around the time of the reveal of BO2 talking about a science teacher in Texas was able to show how you can "control" military drones with about $10,000 worth of equipment by spoofing the GPS coordinates basically. Hell a few weeks after the AW leak/reveal the military announced it's advancing the development of the TALOS armor.
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infidel
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Post by infidel on Jun 12, 2014 21:39:56 GMT -5
With BO2, Ghosts, AW and BO3 quite possibly being in a future setting as well, we will have had four futuristic CODs now.
That said I would love to see a WWII installment with next-gen improvements. At this point, WWII would be the refreshing change, as funny as it sounds. There are other options as well. A well-developed Vietnam iteration could be a blast. Korea? Desert Storm? Afghanistan?
It's largely a matter of taste, but I don't care for futuristic shooters, near future or not. For those that do, I truly hope that AW is a great game for you. I hope it's successful, because I don't want to see the franchise die.
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Post by Morshu on Jun 12, 2014 22:06:48 GMT -5
CoD fatigue is real, I can confirm that with my own experience. To me, it seems like other games have pretty much caught up to CoD in terms of quality and having competitive multiplayer. Back in 07, CoD4 happened to be in the perfect place, perfect time.
It was one of the first games that made full use of the then next-gen hardware. It was when masses started catching on to online multiplayer. FPS's were way oversaturated with WW2 shooters, modern warfare was a great refreshment. It was it the middle of the rise of social media so word-of-mouth meant more then ever before. The infusion of RPG elements (perks) in a shooter was a revolution, and especially appealing to those feeling let down by Japan's withdraw from AAA titles.
From there, CoD formed a huge fan base for future while Activision began to shell millions into marketing to keep the sales increasing year by year, reaching its peak at MW3. But now CoD isn't in the perfect position it was years ago, and several other games have long since caught up in terms of quality. The culture of sheer hate against CoD amongst the gaming community has also began to take its toll. CoD will still sell well due to name recognition and the marketing Activision continues to throw at it, but its safe to say the peak is gone. I think CoD while die once Activision decides some other game is more worthy of its marketing budget, which could still be awhile yet.
Anyway, to answer the original post, I think destiny has the highest chance of dethroning CoD AW, though I still think AW will win.
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 13, 2014 8:05:30 GMT -5
Because there's no precedent for that. Can you think of any annualized title that saw a sales decrease of over 50% from one year to the next? As for CoD fatigue, perhaps that applies somewhat to the multiplayer, but it's unlikely that it extends to the single player. They probably drive close to 10 million sales on the single player alone. Here's the problem with precedent (at least how I see it). There's just not that much of a history of data for video games, in terms of trends and sales. It's not like the stock market, in which we can go back to the early 1900's. This stuff just started booming within the past ten years. But there is some precedent, even within this new industry. The best example out there that looks at a sequel based franchise, one that spans multiple platforms, as well as dealt with competitors, is Madden football. Things can be learned from this (I copied this from vg) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Madden 25 (08/13) - 4.62 (1.94 - x360 Madden 13 (08/12) - 5.66 (2.75 - x360) Madden 12 (08/11) - 5.20 (2.62 - x360) Madden 11 (08/10) - 6.15 (2.63 - x360) Madden 10 (08/09) - 6.83 (2.80 - x360) Madden 09 (08/08) - 6.04 (2.51 - x360) Madden 08 (08/07) - 7.11 (2.57 - PS2) Madden 07 (08/06) - 8.92 (4.49 - PS2) Madden 06 (08/05) - 7.93 (4.91 - PS2) Madden 05 (08/04) - 6.95 (4.53 - PS2).........ESPN NFL 2k5 - 4.25 ( 2.62 - PS2)*discontinued.... = 11.20 Madden 04 (08/03) - 6.83 (5.23 - PS2)......... Madden 03 (08/02) - 5.28 (4.14 - PS2).........NFL 2k3 - 2.06 ( 1.32 - PS2)..... Madden 02 (08/01) - 6.09 (3.08 - PS2) Madden 01 (08/00) - 3.81 (1.67 - PS1) 11/01 ~ release of the xbox, 11/05 ~ release of the x360, 11/13 ~ release of the xbox1 03/00 ~ release of the PS2, 11/06 ~ release of the PS3, 11/13 ~ release of the PS4 09/01 ~ release of the GCute, 11/06 ~ release of the Wii, 11/12 ~ release of the WiiU -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Madden shows examples of everything. It shows a game that did well, selling in the 2-3 million unit range, and then getting a technological buff by new consoles (PS2 & XB), almost doubling it's sales, as well as bringing along competitors like the 2k series. The 'football' genre probably went from like 3 million units a year to around 11 million units a year. Tripling in size at it's peak, before Madden bought the NFL license and killed the 2k series. But you can see what happened if you keep looking. The game peaked in the fall of 2006. The year the 360 had already been out a year and the PS3 just came on the scene. Madden was also still absorbing lost 2k fans. Growing. The game hit almost 9 million units. If someone tries to remember back then, Madden was the big game. On MTV. Celebrities playing it. Road shows. Tournaments. It seemed unstoppable. It was the juggernaught. CoD was some obscure shooting game that the cool kids did NOT play. And then fatigue set in. This past year, fall of 2013, the combined efforts of the old consoles (PS3/360), plus new consoles (X1/PS4), only hit 4.62 million units. That's down from the 8.92 million of fall of 2006. And down from the true peak of 2004/2005, where there were actually around 10 to 11 million units being sold. Depending on how you want to view it, that's either a 58% drop, or 48% drop. The causes? Fatigue. And of course, new console split. CoD? It's following the same trend, just on a much larger scale. As it should, as the gaming industry is also much larger now. But the trends are the same if you look closely. The 'true' CoD peak was probably 2012 with MW3 and BO2. Around 27 to 30 million units. That also fits in with the industry genre peak too, of around 40 million units. If things continue on this path and CoD follows Madden's path, CoD will ultimately drop down 50% to 12 to 13 million units. Then settle back in like Madden did. So what does the trend say? You want a bottom, 'worst case' scenario, one that follows past precedent, CoD-AW sells (projecting annually) around 9 million units across the wiiU, 360, ps3, ps4 & x1 platforms next year. That translates in opening night, 24 hr sales of around 2.2 million. Which means Activision will keep it's mouth shut on bragging about those 24 hrs numbers, much like they did last year with Ghosts. You won't hear anything on numbers. That case assumes that the 'future' fears take root and kill sales. Another realistic scenario might be the 40 to 45% drop, continuing the trend. That means sales of around 15 to 16 million, and 24hr sales of around 4 million. Activision knows all of this. They knew it two years ago. That's why they jumped all in with Destiny as a safety valve play. That's also why they went with the three-developer cycle, to try and shake things up with CoD. Try to shake things up, stop the 50% slide that has started.
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Post by TheHawkNY on Jun 13, 2014 10:08:20 GMT -5
I don't follow your logic for the precedent. Madden saw a drop of 50% over seven titles. The biggest drop in any single year over that period was 22%. Why are you using as a worst case scenario 50% over the course of a single year?
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Post by iw5000 on Jun 13, 2014 10:19:37 GMT -5
I don't follow your logic for the precedent. Madden saw a drop of 50% over seven titles. The biggest drop in any single year over that period was 22%. Why are you using as a worst case scenario 50% over the course of a single year? I was just coming up with what I thought was a worst case scenario. Worst case, is not what I think is the most likely case. And the reason why I personally felt that the worst case was possible, is that Madden stayed mostly the same year to year. CoD? Next year it's changing things somewhat drastically, at least in regards to CoD evolution. While I personally don't feel it's that big of a deal, I do think that the threat is real that the CoD fan base might perceive it as no longer being CoD. That is possible. If that happens, I could see it going from 20 to 10 (or less) million. If CoD just brought back it's typical 'Modern era' gameplay, with it's normal tweaks and additions, I think it would have been a safe bet to get in the 16 to 20 million range. New graphics would have pushed it alone. But the new mechanics making it seem more futurish, ...hard to gauge that. I wasn't trying to post some doctoral essay or proof with the Madden numbers, just found them online and found them interesting. Sharing them with the board.
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wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
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Post by wittyscorpion on Jun 13, 2014 10:38:41 GMT -5
Destiny alpha has begun on PS4, and I watched a fair share of live streaming on twitch, notes:
1)alomost every player I watched loved the game so far, Halo pros, KD whores, MMO fans, Borderlands fans…
2) The MP looks very strong and fun, at least to me. Most of the twitch casters are just doing MP all day. With just 1 game mode and 2 maps, they are able to play hours and hours.
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