|
Post by iw5000 on Oct 27, 2014 12:08:12 GMT -5
That's interesting. But these analyst firms just need to go back to drawing up charts for Facebook and Google. They seem to be all over the place. Take the above quote. They are now saying Destiny is going to 'possibly' top 15 million units? How? Sell to who? It sold 5.4 during it's first five (or ten?) days. Unless some new/weird buying patterns emerge amongst console buyers, it can't reach that number. It will be lucky to hit ten million. It would appear to be around 6.5 to 7.0 million right 'now'...almost two months in. It's not like there suddenly going to be millions of new players suddenly finding an interest in this game. Those who wanted it, have mostly bought it. Even the Holiday buying won't get it there.
Interesting prediction for the CoDAW. 40% drop....that puts a five day gross at 5.4 million units, with a 24 hour total of 2.7 million. Those are almost the same numbers as Destiny. That's around 10 million units sold for the year. I don't know. I can't imagine CoD going from a peak of 25-28 million units sold in 2011-12.....to ten million in just two years.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 27, 2014 12:41:41 GMT -5
Analysts have gotta say what they wanna say, I'll let them be . I don't see how Destiny can possibly reach 10+ million considering the current sales are < 7 million. The more interesting topic is on the CoD side. Most recent USA preorder number shows that: XONE preorder: 257,817 PS4 preorder: 192,251 X360 preorder: 185,204 PS3 preorder: 83,626 No numbers available for other markets. Europe is dominated by PS4 right now, so I expect similar level of interest there on the PS4 side. Seems to me much lower than Destiny preorder numbers 2 weeks before release. Of course, Destiny had a huge market hype on PS4 plus the beta requiring preorder, but still, I would have expected AW to have much higher numbers. However, based on my impressions from what my "gaming" friends are going to play, I still fully expect CoD:AW to be the most popular FPS MP game. 10+ millions is no problem.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2014 12:53:30 GMT -5
It took World of Warcraft 4 years to peak; between 1 year post-release and 5 years the playerbase doubled. Destiny's only been out for a month; chances are it's going to get some content out to stay relevant over the years to come.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 27, 2014 12:55:46 GMT -5
It took World of Warcraft 4 years to peak; between 1 year post-release and 5 years the playerbase doubled. Destiny's only been out for a month; chances are it's going to get some content out to stay relevant over the years to come. That's true. Talking about "legs", Destiny sure should have much longer ones than CoD
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Oct 27, 2014 13:01:42 GMT -5
It depends on how you view those 'legs'. In some respects, you could simply call CoD a game that has an annual massive expansion pack change once a year. That's not that much different from Destiny, in it having say three lessor expansion packs a year. In the end, it's all kind of semantics.
CoD has been out since the mid 2000's. The game has been close to a 20+million console seller for five to six years straight. Let's see how Destiny does in making it to two years before discussing any comparisons to CoD.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 27, 2014 13:17:39 GMT -5
I am less interested in how Destiny stack up against CoD, than the general trend of CoD. After all, they appeal to different ends of player spectrum, on the 3 areas I mentioned in another thread: Military vs. Sci-fi PvE focus vs. PvP focus Cooperative MP vs. Competitive MP As it stands today: veteran CoD players may get increasingly tired of the series, but there is simply no replacement. Let me quote a friend of mine (Saggy, HSV1 clanmate) on his take: Until such day comes, it will remain dominant
|
|
|
Post by Megaqwerty on Oct 27, 2014 17:03:46 GMT -5
Some portion of lost preorders can be attributed to increasing popularity of digital preorders, which are not captured by VG Chartz.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Oct 27, 2014 17:21:05 GMT -5
Some portion of lost preorders can be attributed to increasing popularity of digital preorders, which are not captured by VG Chartz. I am still unclear on that. I thought digital preorders are not tracked by vgchartz, but somebody said somewhere here that they might be. Can't read too much into preorder numbers anyway, especially if it is just US only. We will see how well things go after week 1.
|
|
|
Post by Megaqwerty on Oct 27, 2014 18:03:40 GMT -5
No citation, but I'm pretty sure no one, period, tracks digital sales since no outlet (i.e. Steam, Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo) releases that information to anyone.
|
|
|
Post by ChloeB42 (Alexcalibur42) on Oct 27, 2014 19:46:11 GMT -5
Some portion of lost preorders can be attributed to increasing popularity of digital preorders, which are not captured by VG Chartz. I am still unclear on that. I thought digital preorders are not tracked by vgchartz, but somebody said somewhere here that they might be. Can't read too much into preorder numbers anyway, especially if it is just US only. We will see how well things go after week 1. Ahem Just a note so I don't mislead: I am only speculating that vgchartz is not tracking digital sales, no hard proof at all. "all sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods: Passively polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel All data is regularly checked against manufacturer shipments and data released publicly from other tracking firms to ensure accuracy. VGChartz holds no responsibility for the use of our data – any business decisions made are made at your own risk." www.vgchartz.com/methodology.php
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Oct 28, 2014 7:29:10 GMT -5
I am less interested in how Destiny stack up against CoD, than the general trend of CoD. After all, they appeal to different ends of player spectrum, on the 3 areas I mentioned in another thread: Military vs. Sci-fi PvE focus vs. PvP focus Cooperative MP vs. Competitive MP As it stands today: veteran CoD players may get increasingly tired of the series, but there is simply no replacement. Let me quote a friend of mine (Saggy, HSV1 clanmate) on his take: Until such day comes, it will remain dominant To touch on Saggy's quote.... I don't know about that. Take Ghosts. I have never ever in my eight years of CoD playing have seen my friend's list simply disappear like it did with the numbers of CoD Ghost's players. You lose some people due to attrition, but by May/June....a lot of people had quit playing. More than I had ever seen. I saw it in the clan numbers. 80% of our clan guys quit the game by summer time. By year end, by the time of the Clan Championships....I was pulling hairs to get our numbers up.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 4, 2014 16:42:51 GMT -5
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 5, 2014 12:52:13 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Nov 5, 2014 13:28:55 GMT -5
I read that Witty. I also read this article too.... kotaku.com/all-the-ways-activision-is-avoiding-saying-what-destiny-1654985376It's an article giving Activision some grief about how they have released every statistic known to mankind regarding Destiny, except for one....how many games they have sold. They won't say. Even the 9.5 million 'users', has some overlapping going on with multiple accounts and other things. I'm still going to stand by my estimates that this game is going to end up 9 to 10 million units sold over the course of one year. What's even more interesting is this. What ISN'T in the news. I looked very hard this morning, everywhere on google, many different search variations, for the 24 hour sales of CoDAW. Nothing. There's no news. Not even one week sales. Nothing. It's like a Ghosttown and Activision is really keeping a lid on things. The closest I could find to anything new on this topic was this www.designntrend.com/articles/24168/20141105/call-of-duty-advanced-warfare-will-beat-ghosts-sales-activision-ceo.htmThis is interesting. They sort of confirm that Ghosts did 21+ million units sold. Some saying it was a bit below that, around 19-20 million. Analysts (as has been posted in this thread) are predicting CoDAW to come in even lower this year. around 17 to 20 million. Either way, Activision isn't saying much. The best they'll do is say this, " We see purchase intent well above last year and we see engagement with the brand in social media channels all being markedly up, so I'm optimistic," he said." ... ...that's clearly a wishy-washy CYA marketing statement that is meaningless. And social media channels? Bvllshit. They can't read any tea leaves there. How can they? They don't even know how to get their CoDAW phone app working yet (1 week after release), so how they going to interpret social media? There's only one rule of thumb that matters here. IF the numbers were decidedly up from last year, Actvision would be blowing their horns relentlessly trumpeting this release. They would be telling anyone who listens how the tide has turned, and AW has returned CoD back to it's glory. But instead, all we get from their marketing people is " I'm optimistic"....that says it all. If I had to bet on this, what I've seen so far, (playing the game, the news, lack of reports, clan news feeds, etc...) I'm going to say this game is NOT going to beat CoD Ghosts and is going sell in the 15 to 17 million unit range. Why less? I think there is some CoD fatigue going on. I think the new game style is going to chase off some people. I think Destiny took some sales. I think the console transition is still dampening things, and think people are playing other games too, or planning on it (Halo, GTA reboot, etc...) I think the Maddenization of CoD has begun.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 5, 2014 14:57:24 GMT -5
Rise of Titan(fall) is coming
|
|
mannon
True Bro
wordy bastard PSN:mannonc Steam:mannonc XB:BADmannon
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by mannon on Nov 5, 2014 15:18:54 GMT -5
Maddenization... hmm... I'd say that's been happening for some time. Of course if we follow the analogy too far then we have to wonder who will play the NFL2K part to beat CoD at CoD's own game until Activision finally dumps littoral boat loads of money to sign an exclusivity deal with all branches of the US military forcing everyone else to either portray foreign nations or go SciFi. ;3
|
|
|
Post by bucket415 on Nov 6, 2014 12:07:45 GMT -5
FPS GTA looks amazing. I might have to re-buy.
|
|
mannon
True Bro
wordy bastard PSN:mannonc Steam:mannonc XB:BADmannon
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by mannon on Nov 6, 2014 12:31:10 GMT -5
I am. Need to go trade in my PS3 copy, I'll never play it again. ;3
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 6, 2014 16:21:23 GMT -5
Talking about FPS GTA: it is just piling up on my problems of "too many games not enough time to play":
Titanfall (although 8 months old, still offering new game modes that lure me to go back) Destiny CoD:AW Halo Thinking about buying another XONE, and Assassin's Creed bundle is the most attractive option with 2 free games and now GTA V Not to mention a huge pile of games on X360 that I picked up from discount sales.
I am still not sure whether I am going to like GTA V enough to have it compete with Destiny/AW/Halo, but make it first person just add a huge+...
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Nov 7, 2014 8:57:54 GMT -5
Let me say this about GTAV witty. It's the open-world exploration fun that I thought Destiny was going to be.
No joking there. GTAV's world is really cool. A remake of the city LA, but set on an island. And the island is huge. It would take hours upon hours to walk around it the perimeter. Driving even takes forever.. And there are no screen loads. It's all there to explore right from the get-go, nothing locked from you. There are even new places I found after finishing the game. Like I found this nudist colony in the middle of the mountains. Did the whole game to completion, and never realized it was hiding on a mountain ridge. Crazy. But you can do it all. Riding bikes, motorcyles, flying planes, boats, swimming, parachuting...plus all the fun GTA shooting stuff. All that stuff, mixed into a very vibrant and alive world. Filled with people.
I love destiny, great game. But Destiny's open world stuff should have been like the above. Not this 'on rails' four planet thing, which really isn't anything at all open world'ish.
|
|
mannon
True Bro
wordy bastard PSN:mannonc Steam:mannonc XB:BADmannon
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by mannon on Nov 7, 2014 9:31:03 GMT -5
GTAV is legit. I have it on PS3 and refuse to play it now because I want the PS4 one with updated graphics, first person, and loads more content. Although I've already really enjoyed it on PS3 quite a bit as well. I'd play this game if it had PS2 graphics. The single player is fantastic. The online part is still huge, but just kinda okay. It looses something. Content is more gated off and you're forced into a level up grind. The world is less open. I dunno. It sort of mimics the online mode for Red Dead Redemption in that you do have a free roam kind of go anywhere mode, but there's not that much to do in it other than troll other players. Most of the missions run in their own instance. But it is still one hell of a sandbox.
I don't think it's really fair to compare Destiny to GTA, though. Destiny was never intended to have quite the open world that GTA does. I would love a game like that, but I don't think that was ever the intention. Bungie just got a little into their own hype, but that was all hype and marketing. But that's easy to do. When you're working on a game and you're passionate about it you aren't exactly unbiased. It's gonna seem to you like the best thing since sliced bread. As for marketing, well, we all know that's basically propaganda.
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Nov 7, 2014 10:03:33 GMT -5
It may not be fair to compare, but Destiny braggings brought it about.
But chew on this. Could you imagine Destiny if it used GTA's model? Wow x 100. Here's your island (or planet). Go wherever you want and mix with the local populace and monsters. Have a populace and monster that actually react to your visit. Visit towns. Clean out the monsters. Secure your apartment/house/castle and stock it with goodies. Use your spaceship to actually fly around the world and look at stuff, rather than used in dumb cut-scenes while you wait. Mix in land vehicles to drive around, rather than just speeder bikes. Have different parts of the world hold different enemies. Explore the mountains. Search for wild animals. Search for monster. Travel high in the sky. Go swim in the oceans. Go inside the oceans.
GTA already does everything Destiny's planets do. Plus 1,000x more. Destiny could learn from them.
|
|
mannon
True Bro
wordy bastard PSN:mannonc Steam:mannonc XB:BADmannon
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by mannon on Nov 7, 2014 10:33:46 GMT -5
Oh I'll give you that. It would be awesome to have a massive open world PvE MMOFPS. I should note that there already is a massive open world PvP MMOFPS in Planetside 2, (and the first one too, but it's shut down now).
That's also almost what Star Wars Galaxies was except it was a hotkey RPG like most MMORPG's rather than an FPS. I think the planet maps were 16X16 Km and there were a number of them. Less dense and dynamic than GTAV, of course. But for an MMO SWG was actually quite impressive in a lot of ways. They launched without vehicles but later added single and multi seat speeders, you had player housing and could decorate and store items. The maps as I said were huge and the cities were too, plus player created cities sprang up and actually had tools for managing them and they showed on the map complete with names. All that, and then they added space combat very reminiscent of the good old X-Wing and TIE Fighter games with very customizable ships in large open world style space maps... *lesigh* I miss that game. At least before they screwed it up trying to be more like WoW.
I would love to see a n MMOFPSRPG like that, but Bungie isn't likely to be the creator and curator of such a thing. More linear, scripted levels is their bread and butter. Rockstar has been building open world games for over a decade and has honed it to a fine art. Nobody does open world like Rockstar. The next best open world game developer would arguably be Bethesda, but that's less nuance than simply creating a huge sandbox and giving it over to the community complete with the tools used to create it. Rockstar worlds are actually crafted works of art that imitate and parody real life.
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Nov 7, 2014 11:55:19 GMT -5
I would love to know the surface areas of the following:
1. Destiny's four planets (surface plus underground tunnels)
2. GTA's 'LA' Island
|
|
mannon
True Bro
wordy bastard PSN:mannonc Steam:mannonc XB:BADmannon
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by mannon on Nov 7, 2014 12:26:27 GMT -5
It's Los Santos. Geddit rite! ;p
I'm fairly certain the Los Santos Island is far far larger than the combined areas of all Destiny's worlds. Of course GTA is also more or less primarily a vehicle based game and Destiny is very much about running around on foot most of the time. So they aren't really comparable foot to foot, meter to meter. (I'd still wager GTAV is bigger even if you developed a scale that took that into account possibly based on average running speed for Destiny and average driving speed for GTAV.)
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 7, 2014 13:01:06 GMT -5
I have no doubt that GTA V is a great great game. My concerns are personal:
1) I usually get bored running around all by myself (Surprisingly enough I did not get tired of Destiny's boring worlds yet, probably because I just love to shoot stuff with different weapons and abilities); 2) I am not sure how many of my friends would play this on XONE;
How much shooting does GTA V offer? Is the shooting itself fun?
|
|
|
Post by iw5000 on Nov 7, 2014 13:04:51 GMT -5
It's Los Santos. Geddit rite! ;p I'm fairly certain the Los Santos Island is far far larger than the combined areas of all Destiny's worlds. Of course GTA is also more or less primarily a vehicle based game and Destiny is very much about running around on foot most of the time. So they aren't really comparable foot to foot, meter to meter. (I'd still wager GTAV is bigger even if you developed a scale that took that into account possibly based on average running speed for Destiny and average driving speed for GTAV.) Characters run in both games. I am fairly certain that a Destiny player sprints/runs at a pace of around 6 meters per second. I would guess GTA characters do the same. Fairly easy to figure out. Run across a typical Destiny planet map. Like the Earth, starting on Patrol mode, going from one corner all the way to the other. See how long it takes. Then go run that length on GTA....see how far you get.
|
|
mannon
True Bro
wordy bastard PSN:mannonc Steam:mannonc XB:BADmannon
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by mannon on Nov 7, 2014 14:11:45 GMT -5
My point was not that you do not run in GTA, but that it is not the primary means of movement. The game is designed around vehicular travel. Destiny on the other hand has vehicles, but is designed primarily around travel on foot.
Think of it another way. Consider that travel on foot or in vehicles is completely and entirely irrelevant and so is any notion of scale as for the models and characters and landscapes. It's nothing more than polygons and textures. None of it actually represents physical reality that's merely an illusion carefully crafted for our interpretation. The actual scale in the game therefore has more to do with the way you traverse the space than with what that space allegedly represents.
So, yes you can run around on foot in GTA but HUGE areas are more or less completely devoid of any reason to do so because the whole point of the game is to use vehicles to get around and only go on foot when you have to shoot it out. The content is more spread out and less dense than Destiny except in key areas. By contrast Destiny only provides a few areas that are basically devoid of content and intended purely for vehicular travel. Most of the areas are intended to be utilized on foot.
Consider Los Santos airport it-self is probably bigger than the cosmodrome. But it's also mostly empty runways. The point of the airport is more to provide access to airplanes. Most areas are designed to look good whether on foot or driving, but only play well while driving. There is a LOT to do in GTA, but not on every single block. Most places you will only pass through or steal a car to get somewhere else that does have more content.
tl;dr I don't think it's really fair to compare the game worlds meter for meter considering the differences in style and design.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 7, 2014 14:55:39 GMT -5
To be fair: Bungie never said Destiny is supposed to have a Open World focus. What they have been saying is the game offers a "persistent" & "shared" world. Of course, if Destiny can have better Open World features, it would be awesome. However, that requires a lot of work and there are already better franchises out there, like GTA and Far Cry. So I doubt that it will ever be a priority for Bungie. It's almost like asking Destiny to be a flight simulation game through adding space combat (well, not as extreme as that, but you get my point ) Realistically speaking, I am expecting Destiny to have "funner" patrol experience. Make the enemies more challenging, patrol missions more interesting, and public events more exciting.
|
|
wittyscorpion
True Brorange
All warfare is based on deception.
Posts: 8,598
|
Post by wittyscorpion on Nov 7, 2014 16:32:29 GMT -5
|
|