This YouTube guy, has some great Destiny content/commentary.

[iw5000]

iw5000: I might potentially think you'd have a point if Xur hadn't already sold both Ice Breaker and Gjallarhorn, but even then, probably not. Think about this: Xur has NEVER sold Hard Light, Universal Remote, or Thunderlord! Is there something shady there too, where you'd think Bungie might have tweaked the coding to lower the odds of us getting those guns? Foxtrot no, obviously not, and nobody would ever think so, because those guns are either OK or plain terrible. There are now 14 exotic weapons that Xur can sell. Assuming pure random chance, there's a 7.1% chance for any one weapon to get sold in a given week. Or more to the point, there's an 85.8% chance Xur will not be selling Gjallarhorn OR Ice Breaker! The game has been out for 18 weeks. Is it really that out of the ordinary for Xur to not have sold Gjallarhorn or Ice Breaker more than once? No. I mean, come on. I don't even see how there's an argument to be made there. If a year from now he's sold everything else 5 times and still hasn't resold Gjallarhorn or Ice Breaker, then maybe I'd start to lean your way.

As far as the raid weapon drops, who knows? I don't think they've ever said that's purely random. In fact, it's obviously not! You're guaranteed to get either shards or energy at every single drop. There's probably a 50/50 chance either way there. Then there's probably a 50% or so percent chance at getting any one armor item, for a 12.5% chance at any individual item (50%/4 armor pieces). Then there could be a 50% chance at any weapon, for a 10% chance for each individual weapon (50%/5 weapons). That's all just speculation as your guess is as good as mine as far as what the loot tables actually look like.

Good points, but consider this.

Regarding what I underlined. Xur is obviously not a random coding issue, so that's not apples to apples. Bungie isn't leaving Xur to pure random odds. Bungie most likely decides what to enter into the coding each week for Xur. It's planned, or at a bare minimum, scheduled out ahead. How else does one explain something like Voidfang appearing every single week. So the absence of some of those guns is not de facto proof that the gun is being withheld (for OP reasons) ...as Bungie can tweak the coding for the other game mechanisms, via the loot drops in the other parts of the game (NF's, Weeklies, Crucible, Raids, etc..). That makes sense. No worries about Xur and the Universal Remote...when the gun is heavily coded to appear everywhere as a loot prize. Take that example. I've already gotten two of them in just the past few weeks. Thunrderlord, I've seen come in twice since November.

Bungie knows their own internal stats. For example, They've already released info like this in the past, the numbers below after one month of release: (about 5 million users)

"1,970,807 players have attempted the Raid on Normal. 472,082 players have defeated the Raid on Normal. 202,729 players have attempted the Raid on Hard. 36,181 players have defeated the Raid on Hard"

Bungie knows exactly how many players have each weapon type. I find it kind of hard to believe they wouldn't tinker with these numbers, seeing they obsess over all the other things. Even above. They are tracking how many people finish raids. To many, to little, they are concerned. It makes sense they would try to influence this number, and the easiest way to do so, is by restricting weapon/loot drops.

[iw5000]

Jan 12, 2015 14:45:00 GMT -5 hebbnh said:

Last point on probabilities: Stone, you calculate your odds of getting 4 fusion rifles in 12 raids as 1 in 15,000 or so? The odds of being struck by lightning in the United States in a given year are 1 in 700,000. On average, over the last 30 years, 51 people have died each year due to being struck by lightning. What does that have to do with anything? I have no idea, but I thought it was a fun stat. Shit like that happens everyday and nobody even thinks twice about it, so forgive me if I tend to write off all the "Bungie tweaks weapon drop coding because reasons" stuff as nonsense. People don't understand how probability works, and it's obvious.

I did the calculation on a magazine ad notecard, somewhat quickly (which is why i asked for someone to double check it). But with that, do you personally know three people (like talk to them every week) who have been struck by lightning since the DLC drop? It's not something I have seen even one time in my life. But Destiny? Yes. I know someone who has gotten three Black Hammers, and I've seen the Fusion with another person too.

I sort of understand probability and the above isn't obvious as you make it seem.

[hebbnh]

Jan 12, 2015 14:53:37 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

iw5000: I might potentially think you'd have a point if Xur hadn't already sold both Ice Breaker and Gjallarhorn, but even then, probably not. Think about this: Xur has NEVER sold Hard Light, Universal Remote, or Thunderlord! Is there something shady there too, where you'd think Bungie might have tweaked the coding to lower the odds of us getting those guns? Foxtrot no, obviously not, and nobody would ever think so, because those guns are either OK or plain terrible. There are now 14 exotic weapons that Xur can sell. Assuming pure random chance, there's a 7.1% chance for any one weapon to get sold in a given week. Or more to the point, there's an 85.8% chance Xur will not be selling Gjallarhorn OR Ice Breaker! The game has been out for 18 weeks. Is it really that out of the ordinary for Xur to not have sold Gjallarhorn or Ice Breaker more than once? No. I mean, come on. I don't even see how there's an argument to be made there. If a year from now he's sold everything else 5 times and still hasn't resold Gjallarhorn or Ice Breaker, then maybe I'd start to lean your way.

As far as the raid weapon drops, who knows? I don't think they've ever said that's purely random. In fact, it's obviously not! You're guaranteed to get either shards or energy at every single drop. There's probably a 50/50 chance either way there. Then there's probably a 50% or so percent chance at getting any one armor item, for a 12.5% chance at any individual item (50%/4 armor pieces). Then there could be a 50% chance at any weapon, for a 10% chance for each individual weapon (50%/5 weapons). That's all just speculation as your guess is as good as mine as far as what the loot tables actually look like.

Good points, but consider this.

Regarding what I underlined. Xur is obviously not a random coding issue, so that's not apples to apples. Bungie isn't leaving Xur to pure random odds. Bungie most likely decides what to enter into the coding each week for Xur. It's planned, or at a bare minimum, scheduled out ahead. How else does one explain something like Voidfang appearing every single week. So the absence of some of those guns is not de facto proof that the gun is being withheld (for OP reasons) ...as Bungie can tweak the coding for the other game mechanisms, via the loot drops in the other parts of the game (NF's, Weeklies, Crucible, Raids, etc..). That makes sense. No worries about Xur and the Universal Remote...when the gun is heavily coded to appear everywhere as a loot prize. Take that example. I've already gotten two of them in just the past few weeks. Thunrderlord, I've seen come in twice since November.

Bungie knows their own internal stats. For example, They've already released info like this in the past, the numbers below after one month of release: (about 5 million users)

"1,970,807 players have attempted the Raid on Normal. 472,082 players have defeated the Raid on Normal. 202,729 players have attempted the Raid on Hard. 36,181 players have defeated the Raid on Hard"

Bungie knows exactly how many players have each weapon type. I find it kind of hard to believe they wouldn't tinker with these numbers, seeing they obsess over all the other things. Even above. They are tracking how many people finish raids. To many, to little, they are concerned. It makes sense they would try to influence this number, and the easiest way to do so, is by restricting weapon/loot drops.

Is it really that obvious that Xur ISN'T random coding?  How can you explain Voidfang appearing however many times in a row?  How about there's 9 Warlock exotics, and the game has to pick one every week.  11.1% chance at it being Voidfang.  Game doesn't care that it picked it already last week, or the week before, or the week before that.  Are the odds fairly low for it happening 4 or 5 times in a row?  Hell yeah.  Outside the realm of statistical probability?  Not at all.

So because you personally have seen certain guns drop more often, that means Bungie must be messing with drop rates?  If Universal Remote is heavily coded to appear everywhere, why have I never seen one, but got Patience and Time 2 times in a row from the first CE chest a couple weeks back?  Why do I have Gjallarhorn, yet I've never gotten Red Death?  Why have some people gotten 3 Gjallarhorns or more, if it's coded to not drop Gjallarhorn very often?  Do your odds for getting a 2nd Gjallarhorn magically increase from getting the first one (except for me, apparently)?  It's because randomness is random.  RNG gonna RNG, man.  The simplest explanation is most often the correct one.

[markopolo]

RNG's gonna RNG... I like it.

I looked it up, and one of the best clan names I've seen is THE APOSTLES OF RNGESUS... I personally would have gone with "disciples" but apostles is good too

[iw5000]

1. My explanation isn't complicated, so the whole Occam's razor principle does not work here. One is discussing between two simple solutions. Your take. Pure randomness, where Bungie has everything on auto pilot and does not interfere (simple)...and my take, which is that Bungie messes with drop rates, but NOT necessarily on every gun. I am NOT advocating they tinker with every gun in the gun. Only the prevalence of what they know to be the OP guns, so as to keep the game balance (hard content) in check, in terms of who finishes it, and those ratios. That's not going out on a limb there. Bungie knows everything with how you and the millions of other people play. I just posted some of the stats right above. They know what's going on and track things. Why? So they can monitor and adjust. Not a stretch to think they might tinker with the drop % codes.

2. I'm not basing anything I say here with my own anecdotal evidence. We all know that doesn't work. I'm going just by numbers that don't seem to indicate pure random drops.

3. Going to disagree with you on Xur. Xur is planned. Here's the list below. And I am going to say that based on a few things. One, the sudden appearance of new exotics with the DLC drop. They wanted them out there for people to use, ..Bingo, Xur is selling them. Two, the appearance of the Plan C two weeks in a row. That was based on Thanksgiving. People may have missed it, so they just repeated the gun a 2nd time.

-----------------------------------

01-09 Wk 18 The Last Word
01-02 Wk 17 No Land Beyond
12-26 Wk 16 Dragons Breath
12-19 Wk 15 Patience and Time
12-12 Wk 14 Truth
12-05 Wk 13 Plan C
11-28 Wk 12 Plan C
11-21 Wk 11 MIDA MT

11-14 Wk 10 The Last Word
11-07 Wk 09 Truth
10-31 Wk 08 Patience and Time
10-24 Wk 07 Suros Regime
10-17 Wk 06 Truth
10-10 Wk 05 Ice Breaker
10-03 Wk 04 Red Death
09-26 Wk 03 Suros Regime
09-19 Wk 02 Gjallarhorn
09-12 Wk 01 Red Death

[thebb22]

Jan 12, 2015 15:33:41 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

1. My explanation isn't complicated, so the whole Occam's razor principle does not work here. One is discussing between two simple solutions. Your take. Pure randomness, where Bungie has everything on auto pilot and does not interfere (simple)...and my take, which is that Bungie messes with drop rates, but NOT necessarily on every gun. I am NOT advocating they tinker with every gun in the gun. Only the prevalence of what they know to be the OP guns, so as to keep the game balance (hard content) in check, in terms of who finishes it, and those ratios. That's not going out on a limb there. Bungie knows everything with how you and the millions of other people play. I just posted some of the stats right above. They know what's going on and track things. Why? So they can monitor and adjust. Not a stretch to think they might tinker with the drop % codes.

2. I'm not basing anything I say here with my own anecdotal evidence. We all know that doesn't work. I'm going just by numbers that don't seem to indicate pure random drops.

3. Going to disagree with you on Xur. Xur is planned. Here's the list below. And I am going to say that based on a few things. One, the sudden appearance of new exotics with the DLC drop. They wanted them out there for people to use, ..Bingo, Xur is selling them. Two, the appearance of the Plan C two weeks in a row. That was based on Thanksgiving. People may have missed it, so they just repeated the gun a 2nd time.

-----------------------------------

01-09 Wk 18 The Last Word
01-02 Wk 17 No Land Beyond
12-26 Wk 16 Dragons Breath
12-19 Wk 15 Patience and Time
12-12 Wk 14 Truth
12-05 Wk 13 Plan C
11-28 Wk 12 Plan C
11-21 Wk 11 MIDA MT

11-14 Wk 10 The Last Word
11-07 Wk 09 Truth
10-31 Wk 08 Patience and Time
10-24 Wk 07 Suros Regime
10-17 Wk 06 Truth
10-10 Wk 05 Ice Breaker
10-03 Wk 04 Red Death
09-26 Wk 03 Suros Regime
09-19 Wk 02 Gjallarhorn
09-12 Wk 01 Red Death

Why didn't they have the same guns two weeks in a row around Christmas and New Year's then?

[mannon]

Jan 12, 2015 13:30:21 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

Humans in the past might have been terrible with dealing with randomness, but we have a good understanding of how probability works these days.

I'm sorry, but I have to disagree with you there. Humans have a notoriously horrid understanding of randomness. Frankly, we just aren't good with big numbers. Tell someone their odds are one in a thousand or one and a million and they'll usually behave about the same to either, even though one in a thousand is FAR FAR better odds. We're also very very bad about assuming just becomes something has very rare odds of happening that if we witness it happen it must mean something really strange or special happened. Truth is if there are enough chances for something to happen it almost certainly will happen somewhere.

"Million-to-one odds happen eight times a day in New York."
Penn Jillette

I think I first saw that quote in an essay written by Isaac Asimov about the very subject. People really don't grasp astronomical numbers or probability with any good sense. We're good with small numbers, fuzzy math, and finding patterns (whether real or imagined).

Additionally as mentioned, we have no idea what the loot table is like. It certainly is NOT a 1 in 12 chance of getting any one item, since there is clearly a chance of receiving zero items. (I think my zero item virgin run through VoG certainly proves that you are not guaranteed any items at all other than Chatterwhite Shader and Class Item.)

Some possibilities are:
-Each item has an independent but small chance of dropping. (This would imply the incredibly unlikely but possible result of receiving all of them at once, and thus seems extremely unlikely to me.)
-Chance of item drop, then algorthm determines which item drops based on loot table. (In this case the chance of getting an item is independent of the odds of receiving any given item. The chances of any given item could all be the same, or could vary from item to item based on a very simple loot table. This seems most likely. It's bog standard loot drop mechanics and it even works for multiple items.)
-Any number of other possible loot mechanics...


Having said that I would be neither surprised nor disappointed if Bungie made ballerhorn more rare than the others. The best weapons are generally supposed to be the most rare. On the other hand I don't know that we have enough evidence to make any sort of claims about the loot system.

[mannon]

I don't know about Xur. I'm fairly confident Xur is not just pure RNG, but that doesn't mean his inventory is 100% hand picked either. We really have no idea and ultimately to prove it is hand picked requires either direct knowledge of it or that we somehow eliminate all possible algorithms that could explain his inventory. However, given that those algorithms and the inventory sets available to them are subject to constant and unannounced tweaking, and the fact that we do not have access to all of Bungie's metadata... it looks like direct knowledge is the only way we're gonna figure this out... unless someone can discover the algorithm and use it to predict his inventory... assuming there is one.

Frankly, I don't see that it matters one way or the other.

[iw5000]

Heb

Ask 'em? I don't work for them. I just don't believe the above is pure randomness like you do. I've read enough from other boards that indicated (to me) it's planned. Or at a minimum, a controlled drop (selected pool where Bungie pre-selects say three gun each week) Like I said, in a game where everything is monitored, it would be silly to leave things to chance. Why would you?

There is no way anyone (short of a Bungie employee) is going to convince me a billion dollar franchise is going to let an auto-pilot loot system run on it's own, without any interference from the creators. That's absurd. Like what if, what if the The Last Word drops five weeks in a row? Bungie is just going to sit back and do nothing? Let it happen and blame randomness? It's their company. Ultimately, they code it, they control it.

[iw5000]

Jan 12, 2015 16:10:52 GMT -5 mannon said:

Additionally as mentioned, we have no idea what the loot table is like. It certainly is NOT a 1 in 12 chance of getting any one item, since there is clearly a chance of receiving zero items. (I think my zero item virgin run through VoG certainly proves that you are not guaranteed any items at all other than Chatterwhite Shader and Class Item.)

The hypothetical I used was just that, an example to show a point I was making. It should be obvious that the odds used in this game, are not following a pure 1 in 12 chance. And as far as your VoG, you are telling us you did an ENTIRE run through the VoG without getting a single item? Sorry Mannon, but I find that hard to believe. If that did happen, then it was most certainly a glitch where the game confused accounts, in that you had run it already that week (or you mixed up characters)

Some possibilities are:
-Each item has an independent but small chance of dropping. (This would imply the incredibly unlikely but possible result of receiving all of them at once, and thus seems extremely unlikely to me.)
-Chance of item drop, then algorthm determines which item drops based on loot table. (In this case the chance of getting an item is independent of the odds of receiving any given item. The chances of any given item could all be the same, or could vary from item to item based on a very simple loot table. This seems most likely. It's bog standard loot drop mechanics and it even works for multiple items.)
-Any number of other possible loot mechanics...

Having said that I would be neither surprised nor disappointed if Bungie made ballerhorn more rare than the others. The best weapons are generally supposed to be the most rare. On the other hand I don't know that we have enough evidence to make any sort of claims about the loot system.

Well, you just basically agreed with my point. I'm not trying to predict HOW the loot system works. How could I? That would be very difficult.

[markopolo]

Jan 12, 2015 16:29:52 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

The hypothetical I used was just that, an example to show a point I was making. It should be obvious that the odds used in this game, are not following a pure 1 in 12 chance. And as far as your VoG, you are telling us you did an ENTIRE run through the VoG without getting a single item? Sorry Mannon, but I find that hard to believe. If that did happen, then it was most certainly a glitch where the game confused accounts, in that you had run it already that week (or you mixed up characters)

He got a warlock bond. A good looking one, but only a warlock bond

[iw5000]

Jan 12, 2015 16:33:17 GMT -5 markopolo said:

Jan 12, 2015 16:29:52 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

The hypothetical I used was just that, an example to show a point I was making. It should be obvious that the odds used in this game, are not following a pure 1 in 12 chance. And as far as your VoG, you are telling us you did an ENTIRE run through the VoG without getting a single item? Sorry Mannon, but I find that hard to believe. If that did happen, then it was most certainly a glitch where the game confused accounts, in that you had run it already that week (or you mixed up characters)

He got a warlock bond. A good looking one, but only a warlock bond

So he got nothing in the first chest? Nothing in the Oracle spots? The maze? All that shut out?

Or do you just mean the final drop, after completing Atheon.

[hebbnh]

Well he had to have gotten shards/energy somewhere. Shut out of gear is one thing, but you can't get shut out of materials.

[mannon]

I got nothing at all but shards, erergy, shader, warlock bond, and a little 200 glimmer thing Atheon pooped out for the Cryptarch. But I did get shards or energy for every chest, none of them just whiffed. I simply didn't get any weapons or armor... at all... period. lol

[hebbnh]

Jan 12, 2015 16:21:43 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

Heb

Ask 'em? I don't work for them. I just don't believe the above is pure randomness like you do. I've read enough from other boards that indicated (to me) it's planned. Or at a minimum, a controlled drop (selected pool where Bungie pre-selects say three gun each week) Like I said, in a game where everything is monitored, it would be silly to leave things to chance. Why would you?

There is no way anyone (short of a Bungie employee) is going to convince me a billion dollar franchise is going to let an auto-pilot loot system run on it's own, without any interference from the creators. That's absurd. Like what if, what if the The Last Word drops five weeks in a row? Bungie is just going to sit back and do nothing? Let it happen and blame randomness? It's their company. Ultimately, they code it, they control it.

Well, to be fair, they let Xur sell Voidfang 7 out of 10 weeks and then blamed randomness while they sat back and did nothing, and Armamentarium and Sunbreakers have seen similar stretches but not to the same extent.  So on one hand you're saying they're obviously controlling drop rates (Gjallarhorn, Ice Breaker, and I'll throw in Heart of the Praxic Fire with that group), while at the same time they're either a) pretty obviously not controlling drop rates (items I just listed) or b) are trolling their playerbase just for the hell of it.  Right?  I wonder if the dataminers have unearthed anything related to drop rates in-game.  That'd be a nice piece of info to have.

[iw5000]

I don't think you can go by armor as an example, like with the Warlock stuff. There are only three pieces in the game. VoidFang Vestaments, Heart of the Praxic Fire, and StarFire protocol.

It's my understanding it's a 1 in 9? There are three pieces for Helmet, Chest and gloves.

[iw5000]

Warlock

Helmet - Light Beyond Nemesis, Skull of AhamKara, Apotheosis Veil
Gloves - Claws of Akamhara, Sunbreakers, ?
Chest - VoidFang, Starfire, Heart of the Praxic


It seems unlikely to me that the Voidfang just drew the lucky straw 7 of the first 14 weeks. 1 in 8? 1 in 9? And it just randomly popped up half the time? That seems planned.



01-09 Wk 18 C - Starfire
01-02 Wk 17 C - Starfire
12-26 Wk 16 C - Starfire
12-19 Wk 15 G - Claws of Akamhara
12-12 Wk 14 C - VoidFang
12-05 Wk 13 H - Light Beyond Nemesis
11-28 Wk 12 C - VoidFang
11-21 Wk 11 C - VoidFang

11-14 Wk 10 C - VoidFang
11-07 Wk 09 G - SunBreakers
10-31 Wk 08 C - VoidFang
10-24 Wk 07 C - VoidFang
10-17 Wk 06 H - Light Beyond Nemesis
10-10 Wk 05 C - VoidFang
10-03 Wk 04 G - Sunbreakers
09-26 Wk 03 H - Apotheosis Veil
09-19 Wk 02 G - Sunbreakers
09-12 Wk 01 G - Sunbreakers

[hebbnh]

Jan 12, 2015 17:27:55 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

Warlock

Helmet - Light Beyond Nemesis, Skull of AhamKara, Apotheosis Veil
Gloves - Claws of Akamhara, Sunbreakers, ?
Chest - VoidFang, Starfire, Heart of the Praxic


It seems unlikely to me that the Voidfang just drew the lucky straw 7 of the first 14 weeks. 1 in 8? 1 in 9? And it just randomly popped up half the time? That seems planned.



01-09 Wk 18 C - Starfire
01-02 Wk 17 C - Starfire
12-26 Wk 16 C - Starfire
12-19 Wk 15 G - Claws of Akamhara
12-12 Wk 14 C - PRAXIC FIRE
12-05 Wk 13 H - Light Beyond Nemesis
11-28 Wk 12 C - VoidFang
11-21 Wk 11 C - SKULL OF AHAMKARA

11-14 Wk 10 C - VoidFang
11-07 Wk 09 G - SunBreakers
10-31 Wk 08 C - PRAXIC FIRE
10-24 Wk 07 C - VoidFang
10-17 Wk 06 H - Light Beyond Nemesis
10-10 Wk 05 C - SKULL OF AHAMKARA
10-03 Wk 04 G - Sunbreakers
09-26 Wk 03 H - Apotheosis Veil
09-19 Wk 02 G - Sunbreakers
09-12 Wk 01 ...unknown

Here's something to think about.  If the list looked like what I just changed it to (the stuff in all caps), do you think people would be saying it was obviously planned that way?  I rather doubt it.  People would think it was random only because it looked more random.  Know what's funny?  The odds of my edited list and your actual list happening are EXACTLY the same.

[iw5000]

How do you figure that? In your revised list, the most any of those pieces of equipment appear, is three times (#'s 5,6,&7 ~ Sunbreakers, Voidfang, Starfire) Unless I am reading your premise wrong (which is a good possibility), it looks like you are trying to figure out what are the odds of a piece of equipment appearing three times? Kind of a 9-sided die calculation. You have an nine sided die, with 17 roll attempts. What are the odds of getting any of the numbers rolled, three times over those 17 attempts?

The odds are getting at least three (or more) rolls of say a "5"(ie,Sunbreakers = 5) over 17 tries is around 29.1%. So what you describe up there, odds are it won't happen (under 50%), bur it isn't out of the ordinary. Nothing unusual.

The odds of rolling a "6" (ie, Voidfang=6) seven times over 17 attempts? 0.14%. My stats work probably needs a huge refresher, so I am not sure about the above. Goes without saying the above is a ridiculously small sample size and I'm also not sure how statistically significant the above result is either (it's about 3sd) 0.14%, or a better way of saying it, 1 in 714 odds. That's a pretty rare occurrence...but I definitely not out of the realm of possibility to randomly happen.



edit. I might be reading your premise wrong. Are you calculating odds of finding an outcome, where all three occurrences have to happen? Three 5's, three 6's, and 7's over 17 attempts? Can't do that in my head, but are you saying the odds of that occurring are the same, at 0.14%? Can't do the math now. If so, ok? What's the point? If it's to prove a point that it wouldn't grab any notice from the Destiny message boards and players, ok. Mission accomplished. But it is irrelevant to the discussion. Your result didn't happen. You made them up. Ifs, buts, etc...


End of the day here, I just cannot believe that Destiny doesn't tinker with the drop rates, to adjust them to other stats in the game for balancing (ike how often the Weeklies, NF's and Raids are finished). There is no reason NOT to mess with them. To play along with the pure random hypothesis, what IF the Gjallorhorn pulled the 0.00146% odds card and Bungie's random generator code made it appear three of the next five weekends? Does anyone in their right mind actually believe Bungie higher-ups wouldn't go correct that, for gaming balance purposes? If anyone should be called nutty, crazy or whatever you were calling me....it should be directed at those who think this....


"A billion dollar franchise is going to let it's overall game balance be determined by random luck"

[mannon]

Thing is any specific combination will have the same odds of any other specific combination of the same length. Odds only change if you are looking at it another way such as the odds of an item appearing X times in a row. But the most consecutive occurrences was only 3. In a truly random set there are repeats, often long ones. In this list of a mere 18 weeks it actually doesn't look like it's completely out of the realm of possibility that it could be purely random. I'm not saying it is. But, a strictly random sequence could easily have such a result especially out of so limited a set of exotics.

[markopolo]

I blame it on the fact that warlocks don't have an exotic boot/pump/stiletto/footwear

[mannon]

I don't think there are any exotic boots in the game for any class.

[thebb22]

There weren't, but there are now. Mk44 Stand Asides for the Titan and the Radiant Dance Machines for the Hunter.

[iw5000]

Jan 13, 2015 9:33:18 GMT -5 mannon said:

Thing is any specific combination will have the same odds of any other specific combination of the same length. Odds only change if you are looking at it another way such as the odds of an item appearing X times in a row. But the most consecutive occurrences was only 3. In a truly random set there are repeats, often long ones. In this list of a mere 18 weeks it actually doesn't look like it's completely out of the realm of possibility that it could be purely random. I'm not saying it is. But, a strictly random sequence could easily have such a result especially out of so limited a set of exotics.

I originally didn't even consider the armor stuff, that wasn't part of my original discussion. Heb brought it up. I only just looked at that late yesterday, and saw the VoidFang appearing in 7 of the 17 slots. Upon glancing at it, I offered an opinion it appeared to be a bit unusual. Or in stat terminology, an outcome that was more likely derived from a specific cause, and not luck. Working out what I think is the correct math to it, it kind of falls in a grey area. It is an unusual result, but I don't think it's statistically significant. Maybe someone who has more of a refresher on this can pitch in.


As to what you said Mannon. Combinations won't have the same odds, will they? My stat knowledge on this next part is weak. Use the 9-sided die example. If I roll this 17 times, the odds of getting a "5" (ie,Sunbreakers = 5) over 17 tries is around 29.1%. The odds of rolling a "2" ( Skull = 2) over 17 attempts is 29.1%. Odds will never ever change. But that assumes the two tests are independent. They aren't. The outcome of test one (rolling for '5's) will affect the outcome of test two.

I think Heb is saying they aren't. If I roll a "5" three times over 17 rolls.... that means the odds of getting three "2"s over the other 14 attempts are lower (around 19%). And the odds of getting say three "1"s to occur on the remaining 11 attempts, even lower. I'm not sure how to calculate combined odds there. I think around 0.005%

Close enough ...0.0050 and 0.0014. Heb's example has a 1 in 200 chance of happening. The VoidFang situation had a 1 in 714.

[mannon]

I see you're counting the total number vs the total weeks. I thought you were looking at the specific sequence, (ie. heads, tails, heads, heads, heads). Thing is, replace voidfang with something else in the list and it's just as suspicious so the test is not how likely any one item was to be represented 7 out of 17 times, but how likely any one of the 8? items was to be represented 7 out of 17 times. I'm sure the odds are low, but not astronomical.

[hebbnh]

iw5000: Mannon nailed it. The odds of ANY specific combination occurring over 18 weeks are exactly the same. The odds of him selling Voidfang every single time are the same as him selling the exact list in the exact order I posted. It's a completely different calculation than the odds of Xur selling some combination of 7 Voidfangs, 3 Sunbreakers, etc, etc, over 18 weeks, without regard to what item is sold on what week. It's absolutely relevant to the discussion whether it's made up or not. My list was just as likely to happen as what actually did happen, but one (the actual event) inspires people to claim Bungie controls Xur, is trolling players by having him sell 7 Voidfangs, and whatever other tinfoil hat nonsense people are spewing, while the other (my hypothetical) would inspire none of the above because it "looks" or "seems" random. Like I said before, people have no idea what random actually looks like. We all think we do, but we don't. We're wired to detect patterns, so that's what we do. We don't do random, at least not very well.

I'm not saying you're nutty, crazy, or anything else. I'm not saying Bungie can't -- or doesn't, for that matter -- control drop rates. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they do! I'm simply saying people's arguments for why it's so obvious that Bungie is actively messing with drop rates don't make any sense. There is no basis for any of those statements that's grounded in mathematical reality. There's no good hard evidence for those claims that I've seen anywhere. Literally all of it can be adequately explained by randomness and small sample sizes.

[iw5000]

Jan 13, 2015 9:53:51 GMT -5 mannon said:

I see you're counting the total number vs the total weeks. I thought you were looking at the specific sequence, (ie. heads, tails, heads, heads, heads). Thing is, replace voidfang with something else in the list and it's just as suspicious so the test is not how likely any one item was to be represented 7 out of 17 times, but how likely any one of the 8? items was to be represented 7 out of 17 times. I'm sure the odds are low, but not astronomical.

Well, yeah. That's what I did, didn't I?

On a nine-sided die, it doesn't matter what the number is. A 4, 5, 6 or 9...who cares. I'm just looking at the straight up odds of ANY one of those numbers appearing seven times, over 17 roll attempts. And the odds are 1 in 714 (I think)As I said, it's a rare occurrence. One that is unlikely, but I am not sure if it's statistically significant.

Not sure about the other characters. I am only looking at the Warlock. That would be interesting to see. What are the drop sequences for the other two?

[thebb22]

All drop sequences and guns sold can be found here...www.destinyxur.com/

[iw5000]

Jan 13, 2015 9:58:38 GMT -5 hebbnh said:

iw5000: Mannon nailed it. The odds of ANY specific combination occurring over 18 weeks are exactly the same. The odds of him selling Voidfang every single time are the same as him selling the exact list in the exact order I posted. It's a completely different calculation than the odds of Xur selling some combination of 7 Voidfangs, 3 Sunbreakers, etc, etc, over 18 weeks, without regard to what item is sold on what week. It's absolutely relevant to the discussion whether it's made up or not. My list was just as likely to happen as what actually did happen, but one (the actual event) inspires people to claim Bungie controls Xur, is trolling players by having him sell 7 Voidfangs, and whatever other tinfoil hat nonsense people are spewing, while the other (my hypothetical) would inspire none of the above because it "looks" or "seems" random. Like I said before, people have no idea what random actually looks like. We all think we do, but we don't. We're wired to detect patterns, so that's what we do. We don't do random, at least not very well.

I'm not saying you're nutty, crazy, or anything else. I'm not saying Bungie can't -- or doesn't, for that matter -- control drop rates. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they do! I'm simply saying people's arguments for why it's so obvious that Bungie is actively messing with drop rates don't make any sense. There is no basis for any of those statements that's grounded in mathematical reality. There's no good hard evidence for those claims that I've seen anywhere. Literally all of it can be adequately explained by randomness and small sample sizes.

My original point was that there is no way on this earth a billion dollar franchise let's it's game balance be decided by some computer random number generator. No way. No business ANYWHERE gives up that type of control, it's absurd. THAT is tin foil stuff there. That being the case, then the obvious next step is that they do control what comes up, and do tinker with it when needed for game balancing purposes. I believe that. I don't think that lumps me in the same group as what you described above.

So as far as other people? We aren't discussing other people. We all know people don't always see things rationally with numbers. That goes without saying doesn't it? That horse left the barn a while ago. We are discussing my numbers and with that, the Warlock armor situation, which was an argument I was kind of dragged into, based on just a casual observation I made, that the 7 drops in 17 attempts appeared strange. I'm not looking at it in some hazy, irrational manner. I'm looking at it purely from a numbers/stats perspective, as we can do that.



So all that said.....Is my math wrong?

[hebbnh]

Jan 13, 2015 10:13:50 GMT -5 iw5000 said:

Jan 13, 2015 9:58:38 GMT -5 hebbnh said:

iw5000: Mannon nailed it. The odds of ANY specific combination occurring over 18 weeks are exactly the same. The odds of him selling Voidfang every single time are the same as him selling the exact list in the exact order I posted. It's a completely different calculation than the odds of Xur selling some combination of 7 Voidfangs, 3 Sunbreakers, etc, etc, over 18 weeks, without regard to what item is sold on what week. It's absolutely relevant to the discussion whether it's made up or not. My list was just as likely to happen as what actually did happen, but one (the actual event) inspires people to claim Bungie controls Xur, is trolling players by having him sell 7 Voidfangs, and whatever other tinfoil hat nonsense people are spewing, while the other (my hypothetical) would inspire none of the above because it "looks" or "seems" random. Like I said before, people have no idea what random actually looks like. We all think we do, but we don't. We're wired to detect patterns, so that's what we do. We don't do random, at least not very well.

I'm not saying you're nutty, crazy, or anything else. I'm not saying Bungie can't -- or doesn't, for that matter -- control drop rates. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they do! I'm simply saying people's arguments for why it's so obvious that Bungie is actively messing with drop rates don't make any sense. There is no basis for any of those statements that's grounded in mathematical reality. There's no good hard evidence for those claims that I've seen anywhere. Literally all of it can be adequately explained by randomness and small sample sizes.

My original point was that there is no way on this earth a billion dollar franchise let's it's game balance be decided by some computer random number generator. No way. No business ANYWHERE gives up that type of control, it's absurd. THAT is tin foil stuff there. That being the case, then the obvious next step is that they do control what comes up, and do tinker with it when needed for game balancing purposes. I believe that. I don't think that lumps me in the same group as what you described above.

So as far as other people? We aren't discussing other people. We all know people don't always see things rationally with numbers. That goes without saying doesn't it? That horse left the barn a while ago. We are discussing my numbers and with that, the Warlock armor situation, which was an argument I was kind of dragged into, based on just a casual observation I made, that the 7 drops in 17 attempts appeared strange. I'm not looking at it in some hazy, irrational manner. I'm looking at it purely from a numbers/stats perspective, as we can do that.

Is my math wrong?

So the same billion dollar franchise that supposedly won't allow Gjallarhorn or Ice Breaker to be sold again due to game balancing issues, and apparently must be monitoring drop rates to keep game balance in line, is also perfectly fine with the fact that one of their raids is still able to be completed by a a single level 31 with no Gjallarhorn over a month after said raid was released?  I'm not sure that makes any sense.  Simple fact is, there is no balance in this game, and whatever semblance of balance may have existed at some point has long since been done away with.  Like I said already, I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out Bungie is controlling drop rates because yeah, that'd make total sense.  I get it.  I'm just saying there is no actual evidence whatsoever of that being being the case at this time.  

Does 7 out of 17 or 18 appear strange?  Sure.  Is it actually strange?  No, not really.  Shit like that happens all the time.  That's the problem.  Everything that's been brought up as evidence about Bungie controlling drop rates is based on appearances other circumstantial stuff, when it just as easily could be luck of the draw.  I mean, somebody wins the lottery every day, right?  The difference is that one group is insisting, based on no real evidence whatsoever, that Bungie is actively tweaking things, whereas I'm saying it could easily go either way, and am simply providing a counterpoint.  Honestly whether your math is right or wrong doesn't make any difference.  The odds against it happening could be one in a gazillion, but that still doesn't mean it can't happen.

And now...I am officially done with this thread.  I've thrown out as much evidence as I can think of to show that randomness is an adequate explanation, and there's really nothing else that can be said to sway anyone one way or the other.  My purpose here has been served.