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Post by thebb22 on Jan 13, 2015 16:43:37 GMT -5
I think the probability calculation you did, would be this... "What are the odds of the VoidFang dropping seven straight weeks" That would be 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6....{7} = 0.00000357 = 1 in 279,936 The odds we are looking for, the conditions aren't quite as strict. The VoidFang doesn't have to drop seven straight weeks. It only has to drop seven times, in ANY of the ten weeks. It doesn't have to be in order. Running the odds that way, drastically reduces them to 1 in 3,745. I see what you're saying here. And I think I know where I may have steered myself wrong. In my mind I was looking at it as you described above, but then also I was telling myself that it doesn't matter which fractions you put where. You can rearrange them to any particular order and the answer still comes out the same, which is true. But that's just not how all of this works. By changing the pattern of what falls when, then those odds have to be added to the odds of the previous pattern and so on and so forth. Sooo....then i found this: www.danielsoper.com/statcalc3/calc.aspx?id=71Using a .166667 success rate and 7 successes in 10 trials We get: P(X > 7): 0.00001945 = 1 in 51,413 P(X ≥ 7): 0.00026752 = 1 in 3,738 P(X = 7): 0.00024807 = 1 in 4,031 So if this is actually the proper equation for this (which it most likely is), I admit to being waaaaayyyyy off with my original equation for this problem lol. I think one of them was still right for something though. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 16:47:56 GMT -5
We match up now.
We both learned something today lol (or re-remembered something we had forgotten!)
edit...you were right on the odds of the StarFire coming up three straight weeks. That follows your original formula. 1/9 y3 = 1 in 729 odds of happening.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 16:54:31 GMT -5
Oh ok. I never actually looked at this stuff that closely. So let me get this straight. The StarFire, Obsidian Mind and Claws (for the Warlock), those become available after the 12-9 DLC week. More than likely, Bungie would have had already-available armor in Xur's rotation for Friday early am (4?), due to downloads and other time delays. Wouldn't be able to get the gear into Xur by Friday. So it would be pushed off to week 15. Isn't it kind of a coincidence, that since the DLC drop, all four of Xur's Warlock offerings (Weeks 15, 16, 17, 18) have been the new gear? Is this just pure random generator coding, that just happened to drop ONLY the new gear in the past four weeks? Coincidence? Or Bungie planned out Xur, tweaked him, to ensure the new gear got out to the populace? They did get DLC gear into Xur's inventory for week 14 -- Titans could buy Ruin Wings that week -- so your theory there is out. Is it kind of a coincidence that Xur's had Warlock DLC gear 4 straight weeks? Sure. On the other hand, the poor Hunters among us have only had 1 DLC item available in 5 weeks. So what's the conclusion there? Bungie hates Hunters and doesn't want them to have access to DLC gear? I don't see how that makes any sense. Sorry. Overall, there have been 15 available armor selections (5 weeks x 3 classes = 15) since the DLC dropped and 8 of those 15 have been DLC gear. Only 1/3 of the total exotic armors are DLC, so 5/15 would be more expected, but I don't think 8/15 is really out of line by any stretch. You don't have to apologize lol, it's not going to change my opinion either way and I have no horse in this race. Yeah, i see that now via that link someone posted. The 'ruin wings' were in week 14. Ok, my theory would be out in regards to the timing. Fair enough. But come on, no need to dump the silly 'fan boy' hate angle on me. I've never believed that Bungie does anything out of spite. I've never gone that route, so let's not go there trying to associate that with me. You have plenty of others to dump that label on. I have repeatedly said in this thread that my opinion is this. They any tweaking they do to the random generating loot stuff, they do it out of game balancing/population average reasons. This example might very well be random. Or it could be Bungie tweaking things to fine tune the percentages on what people carry as armor. |
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 17:03:04 GMT -5
Wasn't trying to dump any fanboy hate on you at all, and I apologize if my offhand remarks come off that way, because they're not meant to. I'm just saying if the theory is that Bungie tweaked the stuff to make DLC exotics more available, why wouldn't they do it for Hunters too? Why would they do it for Warlocks, sort of do it for Titans, and seemingly leave Hunters out in the cold? It just doesn't make sense to me.
I used THebb's fancy website to figure out the odds of 8 of the 15 pieces Xur has sold post-DLC being DLC exotics. It's an 8.82% chance of being 8 or more, which is way better odds than anything else we've discussed all day. This is fun!
P(X < 8): 0.91176886
P(X ≤ 8): 0.96917228
P(X > 8): 0.03082772
P(X ≥ 8): 0.08823114
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 13, 2015 17:09:03 GMT -5
My only reply is that we assume Bungie to act in a rationale manner. But we all know these gaming companies don't. Look at how their coders missed some of the dumb glitches/cheeses on the raid. That's ridiculous. So all bets should be off. For all we know, Bungie might have three separate people handling the three types of characters. One decided to code in the new gear, the other two left them to be decided randomly. Can't say that's really a far-fetched thought, when juxtaposing that with the fact that Bungie play testers completely missed some of the cheeses, things which were right on youtube.
What someone should do is derive the population sd numbers next.
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 13, 2015 17:55:32 GMT -5
Well you're definitely right there. Bungie certainly hasn't acted in a rational matter about a lot of things!
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Post by MNion on Jan 14, 2015 1:48:51 GMT -5
Not gonna lie you guys went pretty HAM on the probability stuffs. Is Bungie decreasing drop rates for people that play a bunch? Are they messing with Xur Postmaster and Engram rates as well? Not sure. Definitely not surprised if they are though.
Just my personal experience is a bit funny... within the first month I got pretty much every pistol people wanted from Hawkmoon to the Last Word from random drops. I went on a huge dry spell for a while of not getting any exotics once I actually started religiously playing raids and finishing nightfalls and such each week.
In the last 4 weeks after finishing hard VOG ive gotten 3 sparrows and 6 warlock helmets.
Read that last part slowly.
4 weeks of hard VOG.
3 sparrows.
6 HELMETS.
Oh and by the way I only have 1 warlock. Meaning theres been 2 different weeks where beating Atheon ONCE has given me 2 RAID HELMET DROPS. Its become worse than Chatterwhite in a way.
So I dont know what kind of probability system or algorithm Bungie uses to determine drops but I think some of the rates are a little screwy and too plentiful. Yea random is random is random but if this game gives me another effing helmet Im gonna cry.
I have since made a Titan and a Hunter to make extra chances to get gear, however if I believe my own conspiracy theory to be true, I realize how this is counterintuitive because making more characters obviously makes me play more meaning Im worsening my chances for gear even further. Truly vicious cycle I tell you...
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 9:16:45 GMT -5
What you are seeing, is brought up a lot.
Which leads to me this point. Brings up a fourth hypothesis to the ridiculousness we see. We already have these....
1. 'Status Quo Hypothesis' - We have people who believe Bungie sets up a RLG type code, and then just lets the game do it's own thing, with no oversight by the Bungie whatsoever. I suppose this is the base answer, as this is what Bungie claims. Bungie's claims would be the evidence here, and as of now, nothing stands out in a overwhelming way to dispute it (other than we know companies won't always be truthful - see the SBMM mess in CoD)
2. The 'Meddler Hypothesis'. We have people like me who believe that Bungie has systems in place to randomly generate loot/prizes/stuff, ..but often have people go in there and adjust things. Tweak this. Add this. Put in the new stuff. A lot of this tweaking being done to keep game balance in check, make sure all the players keep logging 'x' hours a day. I personally think this is real, as having seen gaming developers make comments over FPSers for close to ten years now, indicating just how much they like to micro-manage the game ( note - wanting to micro-manange, trying to do it...and doing it properly are two separate things)
3. We have a large vocal minority on message boards who feel Bungie has some bitter employees who single-handedly go out of the way to fvck with the player base, by messing with the drops. Motivation? To piss off the players. This is the 'tin-foil' hypothesis.
4. *NEW* theory. The 'Dipsh1t Hypothesis'. The Bungie employees who coded the RLG software, are pretty stupid. Like on the same level of stupid as the Bungie employees who 'fix' the glitches in the raids, without bothering to check YouTube as a doublecheck. These employees who coded the RLG software, programmed it wrong. Evidence for this? The sheer number (I count over six) of "1 in 3,850" examples popping up all over the place making people's heads turn. People may not understand odds real well, but toss enough of those examples, people start to wonder. And maybe it is a pure random system...but who the fvck codes a random system like this, that keeps allowing silly sh1t that is happening in all these stories?
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Post by markopolo on Jan 14, 2015 9:40:52 GMT -5
Can I choose 5)Portions of all of the above?
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 9:48:12 GMT -5
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Post by mannon on Jan 14, 2015 10:02:30 GMT -5
Some mix of 1 & 2 sounds about right to me. 3 just sounds like stupid conjecture and people projecting their own frustrations onto some hypothetical unnamed Bungie employees.
I actually have a problem with 4. Game development is no simple thing. It's a vastly complex process, and things that look obvious in hindsight actually are far less than so when you're making the sausage. I guarantee it was not the job of the people patching the raid to go look at youtube. Should a massive company like Bungie had "someone" do that and help identify all the cheese? Well yeah. But the thing is there probably isn't somebody who's job it is to do so. I mean, really... how many people's job includes watching youtube videos in their job description? This is really pretty simple. Bungie is NOT that well plugged into the community. In some ways they are right there, and in others not so much. They try, and yes, they fail... a lot. Pretty much every developer struggles with the same things as well. Bungie has just put themselves into a very public and difficult role. Destiny is unlike any game they have ever made, and it's clear they were not prepared for this. Mistakes are made in all areas including identifying issues, production, and communication. I'm sure it's frustrating on all sides.
But... I don't like when we go the extra step and call someone incompetent just because we've spotted some problem in hindsight. We have no idea what it's like being in the middle of all this. We have no idea how many employees are involved or what their jobs are like. When it comes to something like this I give them the benefit of the doubt. I don't like it when we call people stupid who we know nothing about. It's unfair to them. I'm not saying these aren't mistakes. But mistakes can be made by intelligent, well meaning people, just as well. We don't have to insult people to explain it.
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 10:12:44 GMT -5
mannon: Agreed there about #4, re: stupidity, incompetence, whatever. I doubt they coded their own RNG system (if that's even what they're using) anyway when there are plenty off-the-shelf options available.
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Post by markopolo on Jan 14, 2015 10:15:23 GMT -5
In all honestly, I really think, based solely on opinion without numbers to back anything up, that it's #1... everything is random
For green, blue, and purple engrams... I think it's random, equally weighted in terms of statistical probability. The computer just rolls the dice and gives you something.
But the more I think about it, for exotics... I think it's the same as well.
The main reason: when bungie develops a system, they honestly have no idea what will be overpowered and what won't, especially when it comes to player styles... some people will want a build that focuses on this stat, on that stat, hell, some people will wear an item because it looks f$$king cool. I mean, they're not idiots... they have a good "idea" of what weapons will be better than others... look at the 4th Horseman: it was hyped as a fantastic weapon, but now, it's universally considered garbage and only worth breaking down to get a shard (unless you're a collector) But any weapon, put in the hands of a great player with skill, will be a great weapon... regardless of whether or not the devs think it's a high tier weapon or not.
Once it gets released and the youtubers get their hands on it and then their opinions go viral, people start determining an items worth. Their testers simply can't account for all the variables that a player base of millions and more can come up with. So, Bungie and it's testers/developers can consider a weapon stronger than one another, but until the masses get their hands on it to figure out the exploits and extras... it is what it is.
I think Xur is the manifestation of this: you buy an engram for a certain body type, but you have no control over the class. Well, what's the difference between Xur and a chest that can contain exotics? Xur is more reliable because you know what you are getting... but why have a separate mechanic? Is it just to give people like me, who have little to no exotics, a taste of the glory to get us raiding? It has... fyi.
really... to me, it's all random *shrug* I can't and won't explain it with maths... just with my gaming experiences and gut feeling
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 10:25:21 GMT -5
Some mix of 1 & 2 sounds about right to me. 3 just sounds like stupid conjecture and people projecting their own frustrations onto some hypothetical unnamed Bungie employees. I actually have a problem with 4. Game development is no simple thing. It's a vastly complex process, and things that look obvious in hindsight actually are far less than so when you're making the sausage. I guarantee it was not the job of the people patching the raid to go look at youtube. Should a massive company like Bungie had "someone" do that and help identify all the cheese? Well yeah. But the thing is there probably isn't somebody who's job it is to do so. I mean, really... how many people's job includes watching youtube videos in their job description? This is really pretty simple. Bungie is NOT that well plugged into the community. In some ways they are right there, and in others not so much. They try, and yes, they fail... a lot. Pretty much every developer struggles with the same things as well. Bungie has just put themselves into a very public and difficult role. Destiny is unlike any game they have ever made, and it's clear they were not prepared for this. Mistakes are made in all areas including identifying issues, production, and communication. I'm sure it's frustrating on all sides. But... I don't like when we go the extra step and call someone incompetent just because we've spotted some problem in hindsight. We have no idea what it's like being in the middle of all this. We have no idea how many employees are involved or what their jobs are like. When it comes to something like this I give them the benefit of the doubt. I don't like it when we call people stupid who we know nothing about. It's unfair to them. I'm not saying these aren't mistakes. But mistakes can be made by intelligent, well meaning people, just as well. We don't have to insult people to explain it. I probably am being harsh, but part of me feels it's justified. Perhaps Bungie doesn't want to assign a staff member to watching youtube videos, but why the fvck not? Why wouldn't you? Even paying them $30 an hour, in less than one day ($240) a person could pretty much find every single conceivable Crota glitch out there on YouTube. I could. Surely that has to be less expensive than paying what? Ten in-house game testers to look for stuff over weeks? Counterpoint to this? They did use YouTube. But if so, then how did they not find these? It would take 30 minutes. And if that's not the case, their programmers are a bit inept. That's fair. They had weeks to code in something to block certain things, and then failed at stopping it. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 10:36:35 GMT -5
Once it gets released and the youtubers get their hands on it and then their opinions go viral, people start determining an items worth. Their testers simply can't account for all the variables that a player base of millions and more can come up with. So, Bungie and it's testers/developers can consider a weapon stronger than one another, but until the masses get their hands on it to figure out the exploits and extras... it is what it is. I think Xur is the manifestation of this: you buy an engram for a certain body type, but you have no control over the class. Well, what's the difference between Xur and a chest that can contain exotics? Xur is more reliable because you know what you are getting... but why have a separate mechanic? Is it just to give people like me, who have little to no exotics, a taste of the glory to get us raiding? It has... fyi. really... to me, it's all random *shrug* I can't and won't explain it with maths... just with my gaming experiences and gut feeling I am going to disagree with one of your points. Bungie knows EXACTLY what the best weapons are, and with that, due to YouTube and social networks, just about the entire player base (at least those who gives a sh1t) also know what Bungie knows. Is there any doubt about this? Any grey area regarding the best RL, the Gjallorhorn? The IceBreaker? No and No. There is absolutely no grey area or mushy middle here. Destiny gun lists are also ridiculously easy to decipher, unlike CoD. This is the case even though CoD's gun stats (like in AW) can be broken down and released. Why? Because 99% of our playing is shooting mindless AI bots that offer up no real threat. Ten minutes of shredding dumb Thrall or Hive, seeing damage numbers pop up, as well as other things, almost instantly tells us all we need to know about a gun. And there aren't that many of them end of the day, at least top tier ones. What exploits or extras are needed to be figured out on a new gun like Adeolen's Ally? Seriously, five minutes of shooting with it and we all know it sucks. End of story. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 10:44:51 GMT -5
So this might account for the fair share of "1 in 5,000" types of things happening, with certain classes? Bungie dumping old systems into the game? |
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Post by mannon on Jan 14, 2015 10:56:49 GMT -5
What are the examples of these 1 in 5,000 things? Are these things an individual can go verify or is there some reporting bias going on? *shrug*
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 11:10:03 GMT -5
What are the examples of these 1 in 5,000 things? Are these things an individual can go verify or is there some reporting bias going on? *shrug* Voidfang being sold by Xur 7 times in 10 weeks was 1 in about 4000 assuming random selection, so that's close enough for the sake of argument I'd say. |
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 11:12:37 GMT -5
So this might account for the fair share of "1 in 5,000" types of things happening, with certain classes? Bungie dumping old systems into the game? It certainly could, but so could pure dumb luck, Bungie actively tweaking the coding, etc. There's just no way to know without more evidence one way or the other. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 11:15:59 GMT -5
What are the examples of these 1 in 5,000 things? Are these things an individual can go verify or is there some reporting bias going on? *shrug* reporting bias? Jesus. Come on mannon lol, look at the stats work that went on in this thread. I've come up with three examples of "1 in 500" or more weird odds. I think I went a bit over and above what was called for, at least enough to disqualify what you are calling 'reporting bias'. Also, for the record, I have no horse in this race. I don't give sh1t how Bungie does it, it's going to be the same results/loot for me either way. I just find it interesting, and even more so when one digs around looking in the muck. I enjoy probability discussions. |
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Post by thebb22 on Jan 14, 2015 11:26:51 GMT -5
I enjoy them as well. It's just been a long time since I've had a math discussion this serious...needless to say, I'm a bit rusty lol.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 11:30:42 GMT -5
So this might account for the fair share of "1 in 5,000" types of things happening, with certain classes? Bungie dumping old systems into the game? It certainly could, but so could pure dumb luck, Bungie actively tweaking the coding, etc. There's just no way to know without more evidence one way or the other. I wonder if Bungie dropped old antiquated coding onto the new Destiny game. Like putting some crapazz $50 Motomaster Total Terrain tires on a brand new Ferrari. |
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Post by malgato on Jan 14, 2015 11:40:26 GMT -5
What if Xur is not coded to be a straight 1 in 9 probability, but instead was multi tiered? So first a probability test for which armor type - 1 in 3 for head, glove, or chest. Then after that test the next is for which item. So if chest was the first test, then a simple 50/50 between Voidfang and Praxic Fire. Might be easier for people to see this happening.
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 11:41:18 GMT -5
Well that's the thing. From reading about it, I don't think most of that type of coding is antiquated at all. It's just that true RNG isn't really necessary all that much, and can eat up a good chunk of processing power, memory, or whatever else. Pseudo-RNG, which isn't truly random but is good enough for most purposes, doesn't have that problem. That's why it gets used, at least if what I'm reading is accurate at all. For something like a videogame, pseudo-RNG is perfectly sufficient and leaves those processing and memory assets available for more important things, like actually running the game.
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 11:44:38 GMT -5
What if Xur is not coded to be a straight 1 in 9 probability, but instead was multi tiered? So first a probability test for which armor type - 1 in 3 for head, glove, or chest. Then after that test the next is for which item. So if chest was the first test, then a simple 50/50 between Voidfang and Praxic Fire. Might be easier for people to see this happening. It's the same thing though. 1/3 (chance for chest) x 1/3 (chance for Voidfang, Starfire, Praxic Fire) = 1/9. |
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Post by mannon on Jan 14, 2015 12:15:48 GMT -5
The only things I recall being really discussed were gjallarhorn drop rates and Xur, specifically Voidfang, which we've shown pure random chance would make unlikely to have repeated as many times as it has, but it's still certainly within the realm of possibility. And it's my understanding we have no hard data on gjallarhorn.
So basically everything we have to go on is anecdotal other than Xur as near as I can tell. That's why I asked for specific examples. Does anybody have data, rather than just stories and cases, and this or that weird thing that happened to someone? Something statistically significant? Because otherwise this is all conjecture.
I like the statistics discussion... the uninformed conjecture less so. We had 4 hypotheses presented earlier... I'm not sure all of them even qualify as a hypothesis, because I don't think they are all testable. I see a lot of opinion floating around and not many facts...
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 12:30:51 GMT -5
The only things I recall being really discussed were gjallarhorn drop rates and Xur, specifically Voidfang, which we've shown pure random chance would make unlikely to have repeated as many times as it has, but it's still certainly within the realm of possibility. And it's my understanding we have no hard data on gjallarhorn. So basically everything we have to go on is anecdotal other than Xur as near as I can tell. That's why I asked for specific examples. Does anybody have data, rather than just stories and cases, and this or that weird thing that happened to someone? Something statistically significant? Because otherwise this is all conjecture. I like the statistics discussion... the uninformed conjecture less so. We had 4 hypotheses presented earlier... I'm not sure all of them even qualify as a hypothesis, because I don't think they are all testable. I see a lot of opinion floating around and not many facts... Of course it's all conjecture, and of course it's all uninformed and pointless and opinion and speculation. We won't have access to hard data in a large enough sample to test for statistical significance unless Bungie gives it to us, which probably isn't going to happen any time soon. What are we supposed to do in the meantime? Not talk about it, share stories, or speculate at all? That's been my point the whole time. Everything could easily be RNG at work, or it could be any number or a combination of other things, but we're probably not ever going to know one way or another. |
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Post by malgato on Jan 14, 2015 12:57:59 GMT -5
What if Xur is not coded to be a straight 1 in 9 probability, but instead was multi tiered? So first a probability test for which armor type - 1 in 3 for head, glove, or chest. Then after that test the next is for which item. So if chest was the first test, then a simple 50/50 between Voidfang and Praxic Fire. Might be easier for people to see this happening. It's the same thing though. 1/3 (chance for chest) x 1/3 (chance for Voidfang, Starfire, Praxic Fire) = 1/9. I know it is the same. But it might make it easier to visualize how it could happen. Oh, 1 in 3 for chest, no big deal. Oh 50/50 for Voidfang, no big deal. |
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Post by malgato on Jan 14, 2015 12:59:33 GMT -5
What if Xur is not coded to be a straight 1 in 9 probability, but instead was multi tiered? So first a probability test for which armor type - 1 in 3 for head, glove, or chest. Then after that test the next is for which item. So if chest was the first test, then a simple 50/50 between Voidfang and Praxic Fire. Might be easier for people to see this happening. It's the same thing though. 1/3 (chance for chest) x 1/3 (chance for Voidfang, Starfire, Praxic Fire) = 1/9. But actually, I'll take it nack, not the same. Because Starfire wasn't an option when Voidfang kept coming up. So 1/3 × 1/2 = 1/6. Better than a true random 1/9. |
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Post by malgato on Jan 14, 2015 13:01:30 GMT -5
All that being said, I personally do not believe Xur is pure RNG. I think Bungie is manipulating Xur inventory (which DeeJ essentially admitted before his post was pulled).
Loot drops, howver, I do believe are RNG.
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