hebbnh
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 14, 2015 13:07:59 GMT -5
It's the same thing though. 1/3 (chance for chest) x 1/3 (chance for Voidfang, Starfire, Praxic Fire) = 1/9. But actually, I'll take it nack, not the same. Because Starfire wasn't an option when Voidfang kept coming up. So 1/3 × 1/2 = 1/6. Better than a true random 1/9. To be fair, 1/6 was the probability THebb used in his calculation above. We're all on the same page there I think. |
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malgato
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Post by malgato on Jan 14, 2015 13:09:46 GMT -5
But what are the odds that we can 3-man Crota?! 60 percent of the time, it works every time.
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malgato
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Post by malgato on Jan 14, 2015 13:11:03 GMT -5
But actually, I'll take it nack, not the same. Because Starfire wasn't an option when Voidfang kept coming up. So 1/3 × 1/2 = 1/6. Better than a true random 1/9. To be fair, 1/6 was the probability THebb used in his calculation above. We're all on the same page there I think. Well, to be more fair, I haven't read the majority of this thread... |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 13:16:12 GMT -5
The only things I recall being really discussed were gjallarhorn drop rates and Xur, specifically Voidfang, which we've shown pure random chance would make unlikely to have repeated as many times as it has, but it's still certainly within the realm of possibility. And it's my understanding we have no hard data on gjallarhorn. So basically everything we have to go on is anecdotal other than Xur as near as I can tell. That's why I asked for specific examples. Does anybody have data, rather than just stories and cases, and this or that weird thing that happened to someone? Something statistically significant? Because otherwise this is all conjecture. I like the statistics discussion... the uninformed conjecture less so. We had 4 hypotheses presented earlier... I'm not sure all of them even qualify as a hypothesis, because I don't think they are all testable. I see a lot of opinion floating around and not many facts... Mannon If every topic on this board or discussion got ruled out because they didn't formally meet the right protocols for the scientific method, this board would become a lot lonelier. And if you then threw in similar strict protocols (why not, if going that route) to account redundant conversations, pointless threads, and stories that are mostly personal (ie, boring - see most of mine) ....this board would be dead. Regarding my use of the word 'Hypothesis'. If we are going to nitpick this now, Webster's definition states this.... "hy·poth·e·sis noun \hī-ˈpä-thə-səs\ : an idea or theory that is not proven but that leads to further study or discussion. A proposed explanation for a phenomenon.Nothing I did with that word goes against any formal message board protocols (if they existed) and it certainly doesn't go against the formal definition of that word. I didn't say 'scientific hypothesis', I just said 'hypothesis'. I believe I used it right (and if I didn't, who gives a sh1t) Next point. Everything is anecdotal in regards to personal stories, goes without saying. We don't have access to everyone's drop history and will never have it. That said, Bungie does have it, but will probably never release it. Why? See David Vanderhaar's fvck up a few years ago on Twitter. Developers remember incidents like that. So Bungie will remain quiet and tell us what they think we need to hear. That how it works. What do we have? We do have one thing we can test for, and that's Xur's drop history. That is actual population data, (not sampling) because we now have all of releases posted in this thread. Entire population data for his Exotic weapons, and armor drops for three characters. Whether you want to view that as four populations, or one, hard to say what's right. But these are testable. Which we started to do. What's wrong with that? You said, "which we've shown pure random chance would make unlikely to have repeated as many times as it has, but it's still certainly within the realm of possibility. "If we are going the full on scientific official-like HAM route now...then we did no such thing. We actually haven't proven the above, what you state. We could test for statistical significance, but no one has gone that far ye (assuming his four drops are all one population) |
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jan 14, 2015 14:05:08 GMT -5
Actually I think we have shown that the number of times Voidfang has been repeated is statistically unlikely, but certainly possible, even in a simple and purely RNG determined manner. We did this mathematically, not via experiment and observation. Granted, we fumbled around at it a bit since none of us are experts in math. But I think we got the job done on that point. Is it enough to draw conclusions on? No, not really.
Granted, we are not scientists nor are we going to conduct anything on this board that resembles science. So? I'm still going to have a difference of opinion when someone points at some shaky anecdotal experiences and starts drawing conclusions. You can speculate all you want, and I'll sit over here, shrug my shoulders, and disagree.
The math was fun, though.
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markopolo
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Post by markopolo on Jan 14, 2015 14:07:09 GMT -5
I am going to disagree with one of your points. Bungie knows EXACTLY what the best weapons are, and with that, due to YouTube and social networks, just about the entire player base (at least those who gives a sh1t) also know what Bungie knows. Is there any doubt about this? Any grey area regarding the best RL, the Gjallorhorn? The IceBreaker? No and No. There is absolutely no grey area or mushy middle here. Destiny gun lists are also ridiculously easy to decipher, unlike CoD. This is the case even though CoD's gun stats (like in AW) can be broken down and released. Why? Because 99% of our playing is shooting mindless AI bots that offer up no real threat. Ten minutes of shredding dumb Thrall or Hive, seeing damage numbers pop up, as well as other things, almost instantly tells us all we need to know about a gun. And there aren't that many of them end of the day, at least top tier ones. What exploits or extras are needed to be figured out on a new gun like Adeolen's Ally? Seriously, five minutes of shooting with it and we all know it sucks. End of story. I just think back to the IB when people were making videos about how they were destroying others with the begining gear that the characters ghost fabricates for them in the very first level. Bungie's stance was that, yes: gear matters, but so too does personal skill and how good you are at playing the game. Bungie does know that certain weapons are better than others or have more advantageous perks... but they are also quite aware that the good gamers will be able to take down Crota with or without the Gjallorhorn. And they're fine with that. They don't care because they're in the skill camp; that skill has more to do with victory than with the particular weapons used. Based on this, I don't think Bungie is working that hard to make certain loot rare or not. They're of the opinion that the game is beatable regardless of whether or not your weapons are gold or green. |
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markopolo
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Post by markopolo on Jan 14, 2015 14:07:13 GMT -5
double post.... oooops
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 14:36:15 GMT -5
So? I'm still going to have a difference of opinion when someone points at some shaky anecdotal experiences and starts drawing conclusions. You can speculate all you want, and I'll sit over here, shrug my shoulders, and disagree. Fair enough, but if you want to nitpick, I can do so back. Not one hypothesis I put up, was based on 'shaky anecdotal evidence' anecdotal - " Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis", #'s 1, 2, & 4 were based on things a bit stronger than a casual observation. #1 was based on what Bungie told us. Factual. #2 was based on prior FPS'er developers, and what they have done, as well as Bungie with Destiny. Factual. With #4, we don't have to look any further than Bungie's bungling of the first Iron Banner, as well as their ineptness with finding glitches in the Crota raid. Factual hypothesis. As far as #3? We didn't look at anecdotal evidence, cherry picking off of various people's own experiences. We looked squarely at their own population data. Factual. I'm not looking for a pat on the back here. I put a video up. Shared some thoughts. We got to talking about drop rates and someone (Heb?) put an official drop list up. I looked at it, then got interested in seeing if I could remember how to use my stats skills. The rest is history with something to discuss. Feel free to have a difference of opinion, shrug your shoulders, whatever you wish, but understand what you shrugging at. |
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jan 14, 2015 17:00:16 GMT -5
I don't think it's nitpicking to poke in and call speculation what it is. Information on what other developers have done? That certainly brings up an interesting point, but that's also not evidence of anything. Still just speculation.
You refer to population data, I'm not sure what specifically you mean here. The only data I remember being referenced was Xur's drop rates. That's why I asked earlier. If there's more data to the discussion, cool. But on the other hand I'm not re-reading 4 pages to look for it. I'm not so into this thread that it's worth the time. It's not frankly worth the time it's taken, other than our theorycrafting about Xur... which was fun. Would do again.
I'm merely sharing my own thoughts as well. I don't know you and you seem like a swell guy. I just don't agree that the evidence supports your conclusions. (I'm not even presenting counter evidence. As you've said, I don't have a pony in this race. I don't want to prove you wrong, for all I know Bungie could be calling up a psychic hotline to determine drops, or maybe there a grid of squares in the grass outside their HQ with codes on it and when somebody walks their dog and it poops in a square everybody who's game generates that code gets loot.) I guess everyone has to decide for themselves what their standard of evidence is. I tend a little more one way than the other. You call it nitpicking. I'm just trying to be as objective as possible IMO.
In the end it's just a conversation. I think we can agree on that and move on at this point.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 14, 2015 17:11:41 GMT -5
Two things.
1. What other developers have done with FPS'ers, as well as Bungie's own comments in the past with Destiny, isn't just speculation. It shows how they work. It shows that they do micromanage large parts of the game and do monitor statistics like how many people use what guns, what % finish raids, how many try and every other possible statistical combination. Developers do that. That's factual. Going the next step to toss out the idea that they then might tinker with gun population usage, isn't some crazy idea.
2. As far as coming to a conclusion. I came to no conclusion. I just spent a couple minutes and typed up four different ideas/hypothesis to explain Bungie's actions. If you actually read it, I didn't conclude what was best. I did this mostly for sh1ts and giggles, to move the topic along. Something to discuss. If you want my OPINION? I think it's the 2nd one. But I've already stated to many times to count, that's just my opinion.
But fair enough. Move on.
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hebbnh
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 16, 2015 9:31:26 GMT -5
Well, I guess we can throw out the "Ice Breaker is too OP, so Bungie won't let Xur sell it again" idea! Now if he'd just go ahead and sell the G-horn next week, everyone would have everything they've ever wanted. Or something like that.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 16, 2015 10:08:24 GMT -5
Well, I guess we can throw out the "Ice Breaker is too OP, so Bungie won't let Xur sell it again" idea! Now if he'd just go ahead and sell the G-horn next week, everyone would have everything they've ever wanted. Or something like that. I was wondering how long until this type of post appeared lol ^^^ To answer. Not really. Doesn't change my opinion at all and it shouldn't anyone else either. As far as i am concerned, just as maybe there isn't conclusive proof (odds wise) to show that pure randomness is at play, there is also no conclusive proof on your end, that they are using a pure random generating software program, that has no meddling/influence whatsoever. Regarding the IB. I routinely include it amongst the OP weapons, as that's what everyone calls it. But for the most part, it's really not. It's probably OP from a nightfall solo standpoint, as you can cherry pick forever with no ammos worries. But from an individual 1 v 1 encounter with a boss monster, especially a heated one, like the Deathsinger, some Ogre, ...the gun hits hard, but shoots slow (1 shot per sec) and has tremendous recoil. It's not easy to go into the Deathsinger stage, bounce around and shoot stuff with it. For those types of encounters, there are plenty of other heavy hitting weapons, even sniper rifles, that do most of the same damage, with 1/10th the recoil and fire rate. |
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hebbnh
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 16, 2015 10:20:26 GMT -5
It should change the opinions of the tinfoil-hat people who think Bungie is actively preventing good weapons from being sold, dropping, whatever, but it probably won't LOL. If your opinion is (and this is what I've gathered your opinion to be) that Bungie is managing drop rates -- but NOT in a malicious, tin-foil hat, playerbase-trolling way -- then I wouldn't expect it to change your mind at all. Same if you believe it's all pure RNG. I just thought the timing of everything was kind of funny.
I agree with you in that I think Ice Breaker's OP-ness mostly comes from its utility rather than its raw power, basically the complete opposite of Gjallarhorn. Not having to worry about special ammo, ever, is amazing. I've been getting by with my "ghetto Ice Breaker" Invective + Black Hammer combo, but Invective takes all day to regen anything and is fairly useless otherwise. Ice Breaker on the other hand regens quickly and is a pretty good gun to boot.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 16, 2015 10:36:23 GMT -5
It should change the opinions of the tinfoil-hat people who think Bungie is actively preventing good weapons from being sold, dropping, whatever, but it probably won't LOL. If your opinion is (and this is what I've gathered your opinion to be) that Bungie is managing drop rates -- but NOT in a malicious, tin-foil hat, playerbase-trolling way -- then I wouldn't expect it to change your mind at all. Same if you believe it's all pure RNG. I just thought the timing of everything was kind of funny. But why do you (and a few others) keep coming back to that point, bringing up the very vocal minority that believe there is some like drunk Bungie employee, who just happens to code drop rates and ALSO hates people who play Warlocks is calling the shots? Is it even worth the breath to respond to them, keep bringing them up in THIS thread? Goes without saying they are clueless. Bringing up that point, is like beating up a wheelchair bound kid. What's the saying about arguing with idiots? If a person is so far gone to believe that ridiculous story......do you REALLY think any drop is going to change their mind? It's not a matter of 'should'...it's more like 'It won't' Anyways. My opinion is not quite what you said. I don't necessarily think there is one Bungie employees who sits in a cubicle each Monday and rolls D&D dice or just makes up what Xur or anything else will sell each week. My opinion is more along the lines that Bungie may set up some form of coding for drop rates. Probably has some form of auto-drop going on for ease of coding, but while doing that, they also carefully track population stats like how many people finish, what they play with, gun balance and hundreds of other things with it. And take that information, and at times, meddle/tweak things the game to suit whatever overall broad-reaching purpose they want. For example. If they see everyone using the "COLON BLOW' gun, they might go in tweak settings to make the other comparable guns better, or go in another route and tweak drop rates to make the other comparable guns appear in the game more. Designers of the game have egos. I'm pretty sure certain things don't sit well with them. Like a Crota Raid being rendered pointless with people soloing and cheesing it all the way. Or the game being reduced to 'insta-win' as long as a few people have Gjallorhorns. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 16, 2015 10:45:50 GMT -5
I agree with you in that I think Ice Breaker's OP-ness mostly comes from its utility rather than its raw power, basically the complete opposite of Gjallarhorn. Not having to worry about special ammo, ever, is amazing. I've been getting by with my "ghetto Ice Breaker" Invective + Black Hammer combo, but Invective takes all day to regen anything and is fairly useless otherwise. Ice Breaker on the other hand regens quickly and is a pretty good gun to boot. Yeah, i think 'time' is the key. You have time to sit back and just plug away. |
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hebbnh
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 16, 2015 10:50:21 GMT -5
Why do I keep bringing it up? Like I said, I thought the timing was funny, I enjoy things that "prove" stupid ideas wrong (if you can even do that, because like you said, idiots are idiots and won't be swayed by things like, you know, evidence), and decided to make a pointless (I guess) post about it. You yourself brought up that point as your #3 hypothesis a couple days ago. I think we can throw that one out now. That's it, that's all.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 16, 2015 10:55:00 GMT -5
Why do I keep bringing it up? Like I said, I thought the timing was funny, I enjoy things that "prove" stupid ideas wrong (if you can even do that, because like you said, idiots are idiots and won't be swayed by things like, you know, evidence), and decided to make a pointless (I guess) post about it. You yourself brought up that point as your #3 hypothesis a couple days ago. I think we can throw that one out now. That's it, that's all. yeah, ok. I just don't see their views ever being swayed. It's like religion. |
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wings
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Post by wings on Jan 16, 2015 15:05:35 GMT -5
My opinion is more along the lines that Bungie may set up some form of coding for drop rates. Probably has some form of auto-drop going on for ease of coding, but while doing that, they also carefully track population stats like how many people finish, what they play with, gun balance and hundreds of other things with it. Well they could do it on the basis of keeping players grinding to help assist in player retention. If Bungie didn't care about people getting every weapon in the game, Nightfall would be far more rewarding than it is now. I suppose the Ice Breaker is seen as better than it is because of its ammo retention and the flaws around ammo depletion, useless emotes being used for the D-pad instead of activating synthesis packs etc. I sometimes prefer to use a special ammo synthesis pack because I get a load more rounds, which is handy when taking out bosses in Nightfall. I guess for the Raid, the Ice Breaker would be extra awesome. You don't want to be entering the menu screen there. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 16, 2015 15:20:28 GMT -5
My gut feeling is Bungie eats, sleeps and prays by the altar of "Hours played per person". Everything they do revolves around keeping that stat as high as possible.
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wings
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Post by wings on Jan 16, 2015 16:00:07 GMT -5
Well, you are not alone there since I think the same.
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jan 16, 2015 16:10:47 GMT -5
I would say that's accurate. Although technically not a subscription based game I think their business model is based on keeping a large base of gamers playing and converting as much of that base as possible into DLC, "Comet", and Sequel purchasers... which I think they will probably be pretty successful at. They clearly aren't shy about making the DLC not quite mandatory, but certainly very VERY lucrative and somewhat punishing players who don't get it.
(I say somewhat, because players without TDB don't really need level 31 or 32, but it still bites to have things you can't purchase from Xur and days and weeks you can't run the daily and weekly missions.)
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wings
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Post by wings on Jan 17, 2015 3:31:41 GMT -5
I always found that policy retarded. They build the game around player retention with daily story missions, daily refresh on bounties with several merchants to rank up, weekly heroic and nightfall strikes that refresh on Tuesday, Xur arrives weekly between Friday to Sunday. And then they deny daily and weekly events for vanilla players when DLC is in rotation? All they had to is give vanilla players an alternative. And then if they made enough DLC gear they could have four vanilla items and four DLC items each week sold by Xur.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 19, 2015 11:58:07 GMT -5
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hebbnh
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 19, 2015 12:34:58 GMT -5
"...kill to death ratios are up across every band in Advanced Warfare...In short, almost universally, kill to death ratios are up..." Off topic, but somebody's going to have to explain that to me, because it makes no fukcing sense whatsoever. If one person's KDR goes up, they're doing it at the expense of someone else's KDR going down. The community, as a whole, has to hold a 1.0 KDR or less due to the fact that every kill results in a death, but not every death is caused by a kill (AKA suicides). Add up all the kills and all the deaths across the entire playerbase, and it's a 1.0 ratio or less. It's a mathematical certainty. The only thing that could account for what he's saying is that deaths by suicide are down. Which a) whoopty-fukcin-doo, and b) has no bearing on whatever point he's trying to make. Sounds to me like they need to hire a new statistician if they're feeding people that kind of BS and expect anyone to believe it. |
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 19, 2015 13:00:23 GMT -5
Exactly.
SBMM has been a wildly controversial topic going on in the CoD world right now. Again. This time with AW. And there is a thread with the above going on now, where it's trying to be discussed. What your conclusion is, is kind of what I said in the other thread.
My points for the link were twofold. One, their claim of constantly looking at player data. And too, the end part where he says the developers are 'happy' if they get us to play longer.
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hebbnh
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 19, 2015 13:36:35 GMT -5
My points for the link were twofold. One, their claim of constantly looking at player data. And too, the end part where he says the developers are 'happy' if they get us to play longer. Yeah, I absolutely believe Bungie is doing the same thing there. |
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mannon
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Post by mannon on Jan 19, 2015 13:55:20 GMT -5
I don't see how developers constantly looking at player data is in any way inconsistent with allowing many game mechanics to make heavy use of RNG.
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Post by iw5000 on Jan 19, 2015 14:04:28 GMT -5
I don't see how developers constantly looking at player data is in any way inconsistent with allowing many game mechanics to make heavy use of RNG. Because 'time played' seems to be a big focus these days, especially with the heavier reliance on DLC. If Bungie's developer's know they can tweak x, y & z to make players put in 22% more playing time per player, you don't think it's going to cross their minds, to implement it? |
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Post by hebbnh on Jan 19, 2015 14:11:49 GMT -5
I don't see how developers constantly looking at player data is in any way inconsistent with allowing many game mechanics to make heavy use of RNG. I don't either, and I still think it's all RNG -- probably more correctly, pseudo-RNG. That being said, I do acknowledge the possibility of them tweaking drop rates, Xur's inventory, or whatever to hit whatever criteria they're trying achieve, whether that's hours played or anything else you want to throw out there. Whether that's actually being done or not is a whole other question, one we may not ever know the true answer to. |
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Post by mannon on Jan 19, 2015 14:21:03 GMT -5
But RNG does encourage players to keep playing. It's like gambling. You just keep feeding the slot machine.
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